Post on 19-Dec-2015
Philip Mote
ColumbiaRiver Basin
The Climate Impacts The Climate Impacts Group: Piloting Group: Piloting
Climate Services for Climate Services for the Pacific Northwestthe Pacific Northwest
Water resources
Salmon
Forests
Coasts
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Year
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
Lo
g10
mea
n f
low
, Th
e D
alle
s, O
R (
m3s-1
)
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
Columbia River flow, reconstructed from tree rings
Gedalof et al., JAWRA, 2005
Case Inlet
Protection Island
Jamestown
A record of past climate from geoducks!
Geoduck growth 1835-1998
Mean of four series at Protection Island
Are Strom, UW
Baseline Forecast at The Dalles using Older Resampling Methods(Oct 1, 1993 initial conditions)
Blue = ensemble meanRed = long-term mean
Alaska and PNWsalmon production
are out of phase(Hare et al 1999, Fisheries)
Eco-provinces
Region Model Correlation
Cascade mixed -P(yr) - P(yr-1) 0.50
Intermountain semi-desert
T(yr) - P(Ap-Se)
0.46
Relative trends 1950-1997