Philip Mote

ColumbiaRiver Basin

The Climate Impacts The Climate Impacts Group: Piloting Group: Piloting

Climate Services for Climate Services for the Pacific Northwestthe Pacific Northwest

Water resources

Salmon

Forests

Coasts

1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000Year

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

Lo

g10

mea

n f

low

, Th

e D

alle

s, O

R (

m3s-1

)

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.9

Columbia River flow, reconstructed from tree rings

Gedalof et al., JAWRA, 2005

Case Inlet

Protection Island

Jamestown

A record of past climate from geoducks!

Geoduck growth 1835-1998

Mean of four series at Protection Island

Are Strom, UW

Baseline Forecast at The Dalles using Older Resampling Methods(Oct 1, 1993 initial conditions)

Blue = ensemble meanRed = long-term mean

Alaska and PNWsalmon production

are out of phase(Hare et al 1999, Fisheries)

Eco-provinces

Region Model Correlation

Cascade mixed -P(yr) - P(yr-1) 0.50

Intermountain semi-desert

T(yr) - P(Ap-Se)

0.46

Relative trends 1950-1997