Post on 18-Oct-2015
description
Dynamic Self Regulating System
This system is not growing and
has been stable for some time
Conventional Model for Sustainable Priorities
EconomicEnvironmentalSocialGovernance
$$$ have been the primary driver
The reasons why we mine ore should
be re-examined
A completely new
business model is
now appropriate
Business has been done a certain
way for the last 100 years. Now lets
do it for another 100.
Try this for size
Enough for everyone, for ever
If you are not considering all three of these things then you are not
sustainable
Case Study 2: Mogalakwena
Mogalakwena platinum mine in South Africa hit several sustainability limits
Operation expanded several times
Villages were sometimes moved to accommodate this
Operation was in direct competition with local population for water and power supply
Local population depended on mine operations economically
Multiple power shortages & water shortages
Mine site would occasionally crash local power grid
The mining corporation in question was not doing anything unusual in mining operational parameters (no unusual site restrictions)
In this case, the conventional mining process was in direct conflict with the sustainability of local population
This site put the spot light on thesustainability issue in all its forms
The impact of mining and processing minerals
Payal Sampat in a Worldwatch Institute report (State of the World 2003)
consumes close to ten percent of world energy, spews almost half of all toxic
pollution from industry in some countries, and threatens nearly 40 percent of the worlds undeveloped tracts of forestswhile generating only a small share of
jobs.
Mining empowers everything
else by supplying raw
materials for manufacture
and energy
Waste Dump MathematicsThe ratio of discarded earth and rock to marketable
gold is particularly high: according to Sampat,
about 300,000 tons of wastes are generated for every
ton of marketable gold, or roughly three tons of waste per gold wedding ring.
Mining and money
Mining is about money
Net Present Value (NPV)
Financial return over time is discounted
The faster the processing the better
High grading is considered good business
Low grade material is dumped on the waste heap
Leaving low grade ore behind sterilised is considered good as it raises NPV
Deposits are not fully exploited based on their metal
content. They are often reprocessed at cost.
40% Decrease in Multifactor Productivity
1800s North American ContinentLarge nuggets found in river beds
Yes thats a nugget of pure copper!
Smaller nuggets found in streams
Grade 15-20%Finally started to dig Cu out of the ground 1850s
Non-renewable natural resource use
Humans like most other biological organisms use the highest quality, richest and easiest to obtain resources first.
(Chris Martenson 2008)
The big squeeze and technology solutionsTechnology extraction
Andrew Mackenzie, Group Executive and Chief Executive Non-Ferrous Slide 25
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Cu production
Run of Mine grade
Flotation
Acidic leach, solvent extraction,
electrowinning
Central Africa Copper Belt peak
Copper production
(million tonnes per annum)
Run of mine grade
(Cu %)
Source: US Geological Survey (1900-83), Brook Hunt (1984 onwards).
Bacterial leaching
Bulk open pit mining
Flash furnace
Direct ore Reverberatory
furnace
In pit crushing
The next technological paradigm change is needed now
(Not kidding!)
Well, GOLLY! We arent growing new deposits are we?
Driven by increasing demand
Economies of Scale Has Carried the Industry
Global demand for mining resources can be tracked with steel consumption
Steel consumption is a good proxy for industrialisation
Controlled by economic crashes and geopolitical events
China is dominating the rest of the planet
China now dominates manufacturing and resource consumption
71.5
62.361.6
55.0
57.0
59.0
61.0
63.0
65.0
67.0
69.0
71.0
73.0
75.0
1980's 1990's 2000's
Ave
rage
A*
b
Comminution Impact Breakage A*b
Ore has been progressively getting harder
Softer
Harder
~3000 Drop Weight Tests
What does this
mean?
More power draw is required
to break the rock
Target Grind Size is Decreasing
1 mm
Target ore P80 = 150mm
10 mm
Target ore P80 = 4mm
Ore grain size becoming more disseminated
General form of the Energy-Size relationship
An exponential
increase in power draw
A decrease in
plant final grind
size P80
=A decrease in metal grain size
=
En
erg
y, k
Wh
/t
Hukki 1962
The numbers of new deposits discovered is falling sharply each year
65% of new ventures 2009/2010 were expansion projects
Data still being collected
There is no need to concern yourself about decreasing Cu grade and mining sustainability. The entire Andes
Mountain range in South America is one gigantic copper
deposit, with some areas more concentrated than others.
Yes costs of mining are going up, but that can be merely
passed onto the consumer through rising metal price.
The world always has and always will need copper. As
grade gets lower, we will just mine more tonnes. Mining
will never end. The economics will be forced to keep up.
This kind of thinking needs to evolve. The question is, into what?
Deposit Discovery Rates Falling
Economic goal posts are shifting for future deposits
Huge low grade deposits
Penalty minerals more prominently present in deposit that prevent efficient processing
Ever decreasing grind sizes (close size 10-20mm)
Operating on an economy of scale never been seen before (4MT blasted rock a day, 40% of which is ore!)
To stay economically viable, economics of scale have to be applied. Operations will double and triple in size.
All of this based on the assumption that there is no energy or water shortage
With a continuing grade of 0.5% this will require 20000Mt of Rock
With a decrease of grade to 0.2% this then requires 50000Mt of Rock
Copper Demand Outlook
Is this sustainable?
World Cu grade 0.5%
17Mt
3400Mt of RockWorld Cu grade
1.6%
Eventually the cost of dealing with the wastes will exceed the value of the metal
With current estimations the demand for copper will increase to ~100Mt by 2100
Apply economies of scale
Already the next generation is 2 and 3 times the size of
existing operation
Deep Crust Mining
Consider deposits more
than 3-5km deep underground
Mine Mars/The Moon
The logistics and technology required for this is considerable
Mine Asteroids in Space
The logistics and
technology required for
this is considerable
Mine Under the Sea
The logistics and
technology required for
this is considerable
Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) 2008
Energy consumption in mining increased 450% in the last 40 years
Peak Coal
Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013
Year 2020
This should frighten the hell out of any thinking politician
Peak Oil
The NET peakoil curve (or "Net Hubbert
Curve") is what really counts ... and
given that two-thirds of all global crude
oil supplies is now HEAVY SOUR (and
thus much more energy intensive to
refine), and only 1/3 is LIGHT SWEET
crude i.e., given that most of the low-
hanging fruit has already been extracted.
EROEI Ratio for
Oil extraction
Net Hubbert Curve
Oil supply conventional and unconventional
Source: The Oil Drum
Tar and oil sands have pushed back the peak of total oil
supply back 6-7 years
Year 2012
Oil spot price vs. global production
-transition point in behaviour Price $50 USD/barrel Price $147 USD/barrel
Peak Conventional Oil Production - 2006
International Energy Agency
http://makewealthhistory.org/2010/11/11/iea-peak-oil-happened-in-2006/
Source: EIA, en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_Megaprojects, Tony
Erikson ace theoildrum.com
GFC
2008
World Crude Oil & Lease Condensate Production,
Including Canada Oil Sands
Oil Demand & supply & the GFC
GF
C
Oil is the ability to do work
GF
C
Oil Production Static
There are resource depletion limits
which heavily influence other processes
in negative feed back loops
Deep Water Drilling for Oil
More and more effort expended to extract oil of
poorer quality
Oil producing countries past their peak
Source: Ludwig-Bolkow Systemtechnik GmbH 2007 HIS 2006; PEMEX, petrobas ; NPD, DTI,
ENS(Dk), NEB, RRC, US-EIA, January 2007 Forecast: LBST estimate, 25 January 2007
Production stable
Number of rigs
going up
Has Saudi Arabia Peaked?
Energy Density of Oil
1 litre of Petrol = 132 hours of hard labour
Put 1 litre of petrol in your car
Drive it till it runs out
Push car back to start point
At $15/hour
1 litre of petrol = $1981.20
EROEI(The song and dance needed to get the energy)
Conventional Oil 12-18:1
Tar Sands Oil 3:1
Shale Oil 5:1
Coal 50-80:1
Conventional LNG gas 10:1
Shale Gas 6.5:1
Hydro Power 20-40:1
Solar Power 2-8:1
Wind Power 18:1
Conventional Nuclear 5:1 including the energy cost of mining U (10:1 as quoted)
Some Perspective
European medieval
society EROEI was
Approx 1.5:1
Biogas 1.3:1 Bio-ethanol 1.3:1
Quantity of Energy at Application
Current oil demand is 87.4 Mb/day or 31.9Gb a year
This translates to a little under 62 GW of energy
The average coal power station outputs 650MW
The average gas power station outputs 550 MW
The average Nuclear power station outputs 850MW
The gigantic Three Gorges Dam hydro project in China outputs 18.2 GW
The new solar power stations being commissioned output 350MW
An offshore wind turbine on average outputs 3.6MW
So I year current demand for oil, could be replaced with:
191 coal fired power stations each year for 50 years
248 gas power stations each year for 50 years
354 industrial scale solar power stations each year for 50 years
146 nuclear power plants each year for 50 years
7 Three Gorges Dams projects each year for 50 years
34 400 off shore wind turbines each year for 50 years
Deep Water Horizon
But peak oil has no influence on mining and is not our problem
(right?)
Ore is shifted with diesel fuel (oil)
255 tonne load capacity 200kg (?) load capacity
1 truck = 3400 donkey loads
Bingham: Would we cart 5000tph of rock for
10tph of copper (0.2% grade) without oil? Or
run 66 000 donkey loads an hour..
Not without its logistical problems
There comes a point when something has to give.
Escondida: 1/3 of total energy consumed is in
haulage of ore from pit to plant
Cost of mining correlates with the price of oil
We are a petroleum based economy
at the industrialisation scale
Price of Potash
Price of Iron Ore
GFC
GFC
GFC
Case Study: Coal Seam Gas
How will government and corporate culture behave while managing a needed resource in an era of scarcity?
Coal Seam Gas CSG projects in Australia have been rushed through the
system and all of them were accepted
If due process was properly followed, then the majority of CSG projects would have been rejected
Private companies and government have colluded together at the expense of the people on the ground
Extensive legal and political resources have been applied to ensure the continued development of CSG
Concerns of the people on the ground are the loss of drinking water and environmental pollution in the region where they live and where they earn their livelihood
The charge is that the State Governments (desperate for revenue) have sold out the public in exchange for a mining royalties revenue stream
Peak GasYear 2018
Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013
CSG and shale gas has pushed this date back from approx. 2011
Supply and demand of Uranium
There is probably enough U for existing nuclear power stations
Future projection of Uranium production
2013
Nuclear power would have to increase 12-13 times capacity at peak
potential to make up for total energy supply to replace fossil fuels
Existing nuclear infrastructure needs replacing
Someone has to pay for these new reactor sites
Storage of spent fuel rods
Spent fuel rods are very radioactive and
generate a lot of heat
Need to be stored in cooled water for 10-20 years
before dry storage
This is the Achilles Heel of
nuclear technology as a solution
to our energy supply problem
Commercial spent nuclear fuel storage sites
When all energy has peaked and is declining, these sites will require
considerable power supply to prevent serious radiation pollution
Considerable power requirements are needed to
ensure safe storage 10-20
years after use
Nuclear plants in areas of seismic risk
Most industrial structures were authorised based on risk probability
matrices modelled on the previous 200 years
Nuclear plants in flood risk zones
11 nuclear plants on the banks of Mississippi and Missouri rivers
Cooling generators for operating reactors & spent fuel rods cant operate under water
2011
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant- case study
Japanese coast near Thoku hit by a 9.0 Magnitude underwater earthquake
The earthquake triggered powerful tsunami waves that reached heights of up
to 40.5 metres
Tsunami caused nuclear accidents, the Level 7 meltdowns at three reactors
This series of meltdowns happened due to a failure of coolant
systems. Diesel run generators destroyed by tsunami/earthquake
What was the official response to this accident?
A compelling case can be made that current human civilisation is not
mature enough to use nuclear technology
Hydrogen emission spectrum lines in the visible rangeTemperature ignition in air, is 500 C (773 K)
Colour spectrum of burning
plutonium
World supply of fossil fuels and uranium
Zittel, W. et al, Fossil and Nuclear Fuels the supply outlook Energy Watch Group March 2013
Peak energy approx. 2017
What happens to democracy and due process when there is not
enough to resources to go around?
We Use a lot of Energy
The demand end of the equation needs surgery
Access to potable waterGlobal water use is
divided as follow:
70% Agriculture22% Industry8% Domestic
Global Potable Water Consumption Over Time
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000
Wat
er
dra
w (
km3/y
ear
)
World water use by economic sector (km3/year) (Shiklomanov 2000)
Agriculture use
Municipal use
Industrial use
Reservoirs
Total (rounded)
The amount of fresh water supply provided by the
hydrological cycle does not increase. Water everywhere on the planet is an integral part of the hydrologic cycle.
Many major rivers; Colorado, Ganges, Indus, Rio Grande and Yellow are so over-tapped that they
now run dry for part of the year.
Freshwater wetland has shrunk by about half worldwide.
Access to Potable Water
In the West, we take water for granted. Most people dont actually think about the supply of water. Water is easy to ignore provided you can still turn on a tap and water comes out!
We still have the same amount of water in our ecosystem but the supply of freshwater faces a three-pronged attack from population growth, climate change and industrialisation. As it currently stands, theres not enough water to go around.
Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation
Power & water shortages
Decreasing grade requires more tonnes of rock extracted for the same resulting amount of target metal. More energy is needed (diesel and electrical power draw) per unit of
extracted metal
More potable water is needed per unit of extracted metal
Increasing ore hardness requires more power draw to crush and grind the ore
Dynamic Interaction and Exacerbation Decreasing grind size due to finer mineral grains requires more
power draw to crush and grind the ore More water is needed per unit of extracted metal
Water recycling is more difficult
More disseminated finer grained rocks are usually harder to crush and grind
To remain economically viable operation scale has to double/triple in size
Metal demand is growing fast
Once our civilization understands what is happening and why,
everything will need to be re-engineered.
Which will require vast amounts of metal! - QUICKLY
PR image of mining & sustainability Every year, 0.30.8% of global arable land (24 billion tons of fertile soil)
disappear/year and is rendered unsuitable for agricultural production
52% of the land used for agriculture is moderately or severely affected by soil degradation
Arable land loss estimated at 30 to 35 times the historical rate
Chemical fertilisers and herbicides are becoming less effective
Organic matter humus content has fallen from approx. 5% to less than 1%
Big Ag uses more than 3 times the volume of potable water than mining
Mining could be considered more sustainable than industrial
agriculture as there are more assets left that will last longer!!!
den Biggelaar, C., Lal R., Wiebe, K., Breneman V., Reich P., 2004b. The Global Impact of Soil Erosion on
Productivity II: Effects on Crop Yields and Production over Time. Adv. Agron 81, 4995
What we must choose to do to, if our industrial sector is to survive
Room to Manoeuvre
Mounting
StressDrift
Fundamental Reform
Early
Crisis
Existential
CrisisMounting
StressDrift Early
Crisis
Trapped Transition
Trapped Transition
Drift/
Decline
Write-off & Reset
Decay/Collapse
Existential
CrisisDrift/
Decline
Decay/
Collapse
Inelastic oil
supply 2005
Leadership & Vision
Understand
true implications
Peak Total Energy
2017
We
are
he
re
Time Frame to Implement
This pattern applies to all developing systems that require extensive infrastructure built Energy
Manufacturing capacity over and above standard demand
Large quantities of natural resources required
Approx 20 years
Determine best
replacement system
We are out of time. We should have seriously discussed what to do
in the mid 1980s and started applying the outcome in the late 1990s
Mining and heavy industry
When will this crash economically?
The party is over when demand for something vital outstrips supply
Some vital service ceases to function reliably or at all
The average people en-masse understands that the world they live in is no longer possible
And there is no easy solution at hand that allows their life to continue in the fashion they have become accustomed to
At which point, its on like Donkey Kong!!!
Must expand exponentially Cant expand
Deteriorating
Chris
Martenson
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse
The Pickle and the Rub
This is the only thing that can change
Decreasing
Grade
Sovereign Debt
Default
Decreasing
Grind size+Increasing
Depth+Peak Fossil
Fuel+
Peak
Mining
Credit
Freeze+ Structural
Inflation+
FIAT
Currency
Devaluation
+Peak
Finance
Peak
Manufacturing
Peak
Industrialisation
=
=
The End of Materialism
The End of the
Industrial Revolution
Expansion of production needed to stay viable
Expansion of money needed to service debt
The Industrial Big Picture
The writing on the wall Everything we need/want to operate is drawn from non-
renewable natural resources in a finite system
Most of those natural resources are depleting or will soon
Demand for everything we need/want is expanding fast
When these trends meet, there will come a point where how we do things will fundamentally change
None of these issues can be seen in isolation.
Real growth is dependant on energy and real resources
Price of oil to make oil exploration economic
Approx. - $USD 100/barrel
Price of oil above which economic growth is very difficult
Approx. - $USD 100/barrel
The End of Growth
(R. Heinberg 2012)
But corporate culture must grow to survive
Current business culture must expand and show a profit
If a business doesnt show a profit of 5-10%, financial investment is withdrawn and sent else where
Most businesses are not financially self sufficient and depend on investment to operate
The need for growth is a key KPI for survival
Most businesses are armpit deep in debt
Its getting increasingly difficult to grow without going further into debt
The fate of the current system of industrial management
This is not the end of industrialization but the end of the
current way of doing this.
A new system will be developed through necessity.
All of our current efforts are pushing in the wrong direction and are ultimately irrelevant!!!!
The push for growth on all fronts must come crashing to a stop in
a finite system eventually
The ethics of what gets used and for whom becomes relevant
Person A and Person B want the same pallet of aluminum ingots
Person A wants to build a roof over his swimming pool at his holiday home has lots of $$$
Person B wants to build a series of bore water pumps in a region with drinking water shortages represents a nation state government where resource is
situated
But money has become really unstable
The have-nots vastly outnumber the haves
grab your pitch forks and burning torches,
its time for a visit to the castle
Possible Solutions Fall into 3 Groups
Mine in a much more efficient manner
Invest more sophisticated methods of efficiency not merely mining
Change the business model behind mining
The conventional corporate model wont work in a contracting system
Mine our garbage tips and recycled rubbish as it comes in
Where did we put all the good stuff?
Over the last 150 years, we have dug up the highest grade deposits,
manufactured them into goods, and then put those goods into our
rubbish dumps
Where did we put all the good stuff?
Over the last 150 years, we have dug up the highest grade deposits,
manufactured them into goods, and then put those goods into our
rubbish dumps
Where did we put all the good stuff?
Over the last 150 years, we have dug up the highest grade deposits,
manufactured them into goods, and then put those goods into our
rubbish dumps
Where did we put all the good stuff?
All the good stuff is still here, in concentrated piles, all around
our major cities
Where did we put all the good stuff?
What is a typical grade of gold per tonne in a
modern mine site????
From 1000kg of Printed Circuit Boards
Typical Copper/Gold Deposit
Au ~ 1g per tonne of ore Cu ~ 10kg per tonne of ore 60% strip ratio
Saleable material recovered from 1000kgassorted E-waste (electrical, PC, TV, Mobile Phone, etc.)
23%
8%
27%
27%
3%
3%8%
1% Mild Steel
Stainless Steel
Glass
Plastics
Copper
Aluminium
Other materials
Hazardous Materials
Note: E-Waste also contains precious metals like
gold, silver, palladium, platinum, etc.
There is a strong precedent for this
Accepted off the shelf technology
Process Separation Methods
Magnetic Electrostatic Gravity
Shredding down 5mm F80 feed
(no grinding & its dry feed)
Sorting of the feed material is the key to success
Sorting technology is well established in industrial recycling
Pyrometallurgy is more complex
Smelting efficiently to feed characteristics
Separation of electroplated fragments
Alloys
Our Industrial Society is a Network System
Mining
(Raw materials)
Heavy Industry
(metal casting)
ManufactureDistribution
(JIT)
Retail
Energy
Finance
The same model
could be applied to
food, health, etc.
A small number of
companies
facilitate this
network
What Can Network Theory Teach Us
Connections are paths of communication of
some form
Nodes are where many paths connect
For example we all need petrol to function in the
modern world
If the network is damaged in macro structure terms, it shrinks in size but functions normally
What Can Network Theory Teach Us
If a node is knocked out, anything attached to that node unravels
If disruption of that node is long enough to prevent that vital part of the network to function
Then the whole network is put at risk
Example: Industrial Procurement Currency Trade Links
Disrupt USA & EU
as places to do
business with
Disrupt $USD as a
world reserve
currency
What Can Network Theory Teach Us
If the network serves a necessary purpose, a new network will manifest in place of the old network
The new network will operate to different control parameters
Necessity is the mother of invention
Energy is a controlling parameter
The complexity of a network is supported by and defined by the energy inputs that support it.
Our current complex system is supported by cheap abundant high density energy (oil)
1 cubic mile = 316.8 days with
world oil demand of
82.77 Mbbl/day
What Can Network Theory Teach Us
Complex system networks are not made insitu
They are grown over time from simple system networks
What Does All This Mean For The Energy Grid?
Peak oil means the node of petroleum energy supply is about to be disrupted
All links in the network system supported by petroleum will be logistically traumatized
As it stands, any replacement energy is less dense per unit volume and requires extensive infrastructure to be built
This means the replacement network system will need to be less complex than the current one, once fully operational
It will also take time for the network to reach full complexity
The same thing will happen in a few years for gas
and in 10 years time for coal
If cheap abundant energy is the engine, then mining is the
gearbox
What allows materialism to happen?
Social institutions and social contracts are developed
around what is possible
Environmental carrying capacity is the brakes
Environmental degradation and population overshootare the huge brick walls we are driving at really fast
Why was this allowed to happen?
Because they could
our current developed culture
And we never understood the true consequences
We were convinced it was OK
Expecting corporate culture to act for the greater good is inappropriate
If it incurs a profit loss
Or threatens their business model
Once survival becomes an issue
Systemic environmental
disruption
Natural raw materials
unavailable for
industrialisation
Energy supply
disrupted then
unavailable
Reset all FIAT currencies asset based Restructure all debt Need to grow into new system
Cannot sustain growth Cannot grow economy system Change to alternative energy system Rebuild all infrastructure to meet
requirements of new energy system
Cannot supply raw materials for construction or manufacture at needed
rate or volume, if at all
Need to reassess what is really needed Mine our rubbish dumps
Cannot run any existing system for very long
Resilience and redundancy required on all fronts
Practical carrying capacity vastly reduced
Financial
Systemic
Meltdown
Po
pu
lati
on
Ove
rsh
oo
t
Puts pressure on all other sectors except finance Most people of which have few relevant skills
outside existing paradigm
Wilful ignorance & aggressive apathy
Are these issues really
unknown to the senior
global decision makers?
What happens to due
process and democracy
when there is not enough
to support everyone?
Systemic environmental
disruption
Natural raw materials
unavailable for
industrialisation
Energy supply
disrupted then
unavailable
Financial
Systemic
Meltdown
Po
pu
lati
on
Ove
rsh
oo
t
Personal epiphany after a 15 year professional career
You can be at the right place at the right time,
when that system breaks
You cant make a system change that doesnt want to, that also regulates its own authority
and has its own political power source
Conventional thinking has no hope for the future.
Unconventional thinking and asymmetrical strategy
is the way forward
Timing is the key to everything
Paradigm changing information is right in front of us if we choose to see it
Everyone should try thinking for themselves at least once
Now would be a good time
Peak mining & implications for natural resource management -
Simon Michaux
Type in peak mining Simon Michaux
Developing a Sustainable Community - Simon Michaux
Type in Developing a Sustainable Community
These presentations are on YouTube
Questions???
My wife and I in 40 years time
(its up to you to keep up)