Post on 03-Jan-2017
Patterns of Violent Crime
in Russia Natalia S. GavrilovaLeonid A. Gavrilov
Victoria G. SemyonovaGalina N. Evdokushkina
Alla E. IvanovaCenter on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
Central Research Public Health Institute, Moscow, Russia
List of Violent Crimes
• Intentional Murder• Assault (simple and aggravated) Intentional Bodily Harm (light, medium,
serious) in Russian Criminal Code• Rape/Sexual assault• Robbery (simple and aggravated) ‘Grabezh’ and ‘Razboy’ in Russian Criminal
Code
Data Resources on Violent Crime• Statistics of violent crimes registered by police (collected
by the Russian Ministry of Interiors). Also submitted to the UN World Crime Surveys.
• Statistics of arrestees collected by police.
• Statistics of homicide mortality collected by Goskomstat. Submitted to the WHO.
• Surveys of prison inmates.
• Victimization surveys. International Crime Victimization Surveys (conducted in Moscow).
Trends of Intentional Murders in Russia and the United States
Data from the UN World Crime Surveys
Time, years1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Rec
orde
d In
tent
iona
l Hom
icid
e (c
ompl
eted
) per
100
,000
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
Russia
United States
Trends of Reported Rapes in Russia and the United States
Data from the UN World Crime Surveys
Time, years1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Rec
orde
d R
apes
per
100
,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
Russia
United States
Trends of Reported Robberies in Russia and the United States
Data from the UN World Crime Surveys
Time, years1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Rec
orde
d R
obbe
ries
per 1
00,0
00
50
100
150
200
250
300
Russia
United States
Crime Reporting (%) in Russia and the United States
Data from the International Crime Victimization Survey
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Russia, 1992 Russia, 1996 United States,2002
robberiessexual assaults
Annual Victimization Rates (%) in Five Countries in 1996
0 2 4 6 8 10
sexual assaultof women
robberyUnited StatesLatin AmericaBelarusUkraineRussia
Annual Victimization Rates (%) for Non-Fatal Crimes in Moscow.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
robbery
sexual assault
assault/threat
burglary
1996 survey1992 survey
Mean Age of Offenders in PrisonsData from the 1999 Survey of Penal Population
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
robbery
aggravatedrobbery
rape
aggravated assault
murder
Trends in Homicide Rates for Young and Middle-Aged Adults
Data from Russian Vital Statistics
Males Females
Year1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Mor
talit
y R
ate
x 10
0,00
0
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
20-24
45-49
Year1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Mor
talit
y R
ate
x 10
0,00
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-24
45-49
Trends in Homicide Male-Female Ratio for Young and Middle-Aged Adults in Russia
Year1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Mal
e/Fe
mal
e M
orta
lity
Rat
io
3
4
5
6
7
20-24
45-49
Age Profile of Male Homicide Mortality in Russia
Age0 20 40 60 80
Hom
icid
e de
aths
per
100
,000
mal
es
0
20
40
60
80 2002
1991
1981
Age Profile of Female Homicide Mortality in Russia
Age0 20 40 60 80
Hom
icid
e de
aths
per
100
,000
mal
es
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002
1991
1981
Number of Serious Crimes in 1995 per 10,000 Population
Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)
Proportion of Sexual Crimes in All Serious Crimes in 1995
Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)
Top Five Causes of Male External Mortality in 2001
Russia MoscowSuicide Accidental Falls (!?)
Undetermined Injury Undetermined Injury
Homicide All Other Accidental Causes
Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol
Homicide
All Other Accidental Causes
Suicide
Age Profiles of Mortality from Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol
Data from Russian Vital Statistics
Males FemalesAge
0 20 40 60 80 100
Mor
talit
y R
ate
x 10
0,00
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20011981
1991
Age0 20 40 60 80 100
Mor
talit
y R
ate
x 10
0,00
0
0
10
20
30
40
2001
1981
1991
We Need a Multivariate Analysis of Violent Crime
• Pridemore W.A. (2000). Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia. A Dissertation. School of Criminal Justice, SUNY, Albany, NY.
• Andrienko Y. (2001). Understanding the crime growth in Russia during the transition period: A criminometric approach. HSE Economic Journal, 5(2): 194-220.
• Fajnzylber P., Lederman D., Loayza N. (2002). What causes violent crime? European Economic Review, 46: 1323-1357.
Factors Related to Homicide Dynamics in Russia
According to the Study by Andrienko, 2001
Positively Related Factors:• Criminal experience (one-year lag of homicide rate)• Percentage of Youth• Alcohol Consumption• Income inequality (Gini coefficient), • Consumption of Illicit Drugs• Geographical Lattitude and Longitude
Negatively Related Factors:• Education• Police Efficiency (Police Clearance Rate)• Unemployment (!?), Real Income, Net Nuptiality
Conclusions (I) • The rates of violent crimes increased during the
transition period in Russia (perhaps with the exception of rapes). Homicide has became the top cause of external mortality for women in Russia.
• Patterns of violent crime in Russia are strongly affected by age and sex. Homicide risk is the highest at middle ages – 30-55 years. The use of aggregated indices, which ignore age and sex structure could be misleading.
• Both homicide victims and offenders are on average older in Russia than in the United States.
Conclusions (II)• Regional pattern of homicide mortality shows West-East
and South-North (European part of Russia) gradient of homicide mortality.
• Alcohol is still an important factor of violent crime and homicide in particular. However, the role of alcohol as a factor of violent crime is declining.
• Economic and structural changes during the transition period (increase in poverty and income inequality, decline in GDP) appears to be important factors of violent crime and will largely determine the future direction of violent crime in Russia. However these trends may be partially alleviated by population aging.