Patterns of Violent Crime

in Russia Natalia S. GavrilovaLeonid A. Gavrilov

Victoria G. SemyonovaGalina N. Evdokushkina

Alla E. IvanovaCenter on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

Central Research Public Health Institute, Moscow, Russia

List of Violent Crimes

• Intentional Murder• Assault (simple and aggravated) Intentional Bodily Harm (light, medium,

serious) in Russian Criminal Code• Rape/Sexual assault• Robbery (simple and aggravated) ‘Grabezh’ and ‘Razboy’ in Russian Criminal

Code

Data Resources on Violent Crime• Statistics of violent crimes registered by police (collected

by the Russian Ministry of Interiors). Also submitted to the UN World Crime Surveys.

• Statistics of arrestees collected by police.

• Statistics of homicide mortality collected by Goskomstat. Submitted to the WHO.

• Surveys of prison inmates.

• Victimization surveys. International Crime Victimization Surveys (conducted in Moscow).

Trends of Intentional Murders in Russia and the United States

Data from the UN World Crime Surveys

Time, years1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Rec

orde

d In

tent

iona

l Hom

icid

e (c

ompl

eted

) per

100

,000

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

Russia

United States

Trends of Reported Rapes in Russia and the United States

Data from the UN World Crime Surveys

Time, years1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Rec

orde

d R

apes

per

100

,000

0

10

20

30

40

50

Russia

United States

Trends of Reported Robberies in Russia and the United States

Data from the UN World Crime Surveys

Time, years1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Rec

orde

d R

obbe

ries

per 1

00,0

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

Russia

United States

Crime Reporting (%) in Russia and the United States

Data from the International Crime Victimization Survey

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Russia, 1992 Russia, 1996 United States,2002

robberiessexual assaults

Annual Victimization Rates (%) in Five Countries in 1996

0 2 4 6 8 10

sexual assaultof women

robberyUnited StatesLatin AmericaBelarusUkraineRussia

Annual Victimization Rates (%) for Non-Fatal Crimes in Moscow.

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

robbery

sexual assault

assault/threat

burglary

1996 survey1992 survey

Mean Age of Offenders in PrisonsData from the 1999 Survey of Penal Population

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

robbery

aggravatedrobbery

rape

aggravated assault

murder

Trends in Homicide Rates for Young and Middle-Aged Adults

Data from Russian Vital Statistics

Males Females

Year1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Mor

talit

y R

ate

x 10

0,00

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20-24

45-49

Year1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Mor

talit

y R

ate

x 10

0,00

0

0

5

10

15

20

25

20-24

45-49

Trends in Homicide Male-Female Ratio for Young and Middle-Aged Adults in Russia

Year1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002

Mal

e/Fe

mal

e M

orta

lity

Rat

io

3

4

5

6

7

20-24

45-49

Age Profile of Male Homicide Mortality in Russia

Age0 20 40 60 80

Hom

icid

e de

aths

per

100

,000

mal

es

0

20

40

60

80 2002

1991

1981

Age Profile of Female Homicide Mortality in Russia

Age0 20 40 60 80

Hom

icid

e de

aths

per

100

,000

mal

es

0

5

10

15

20

25

2002

1991

1981

Number of Serious Crimes in 1995 per 10,000 Population

Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)

Proportion of Sexual Crimes in All Serious Crimes in 1995

Data from the WebAtlas Project (http://sci.aha.ru/ATL)

Top Five Causes of Male External Mortality in 2001

Russia MoscowSuicide Accidental Falls (!?)

Undetermined Injury Undetermined Injury

Homicide All Other Accidental Causes

Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol

Homicide

All Other Accidental Causes

Suicide

Age Profiles of Mortality from Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol

Data from Russian Vital Statistics

Males FemalesAge

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mor

talit

y R

ate

x 10

0,00

0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20011981

1991

Age0 20 40 60 80 100

Mor

talit

y R

ate

x 10

0,00

0

0

10

20

30

40

2001

1981

1991

We Need a Multivariate Analysis of Violent Crime

• Pridemore W.A. (2000). Social Structure and Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia. A Dissertation. School of Criminal Justice, SUNY, Albany, NY.

• Andrienko Y. (2001). Understanding the crime growth in Russia during the transition period: A criminometric approach. HSE Economic Journal, 5(2): 194-220.

• Fajnzylber P., Lederman D., Loayza N. (2002). What causes violent crime? European Economic Review, 46: 1323-1357.

Factors Related to Homicide Dynamics in Russia

According to the Study by Andrienko, 2001

Positively Related Factors:• Criminal experience (one-year lag of homicide rate)• Percentage of Youth• Alcohol Consumption• Income inequality (Gini coefficient), • Consumption of Illicit Drugs• Geographical Lattitude and Longitude

Negatively Related Factors:• Education• Police Efficiency (Police Clearance Rate)• Unemployment (!?), Real Income, Net Nuptiality

Conclusions (I) • The rates of violent crimes increased during the

transition period in Russia (perhaps with the exception of rapes). Homicide has became the top cause of external mortality for women in Russia.

• Patterns of violent crime in Russia are strongly affected by age and sex. Homicide risk is the highest at middle ages – 30-55 years. The use of aggregated indices, which ignore age and sex structure could be misleading.

• Both homicide victims and offenders are on average older in Russia than in the United States.

Conclusions (II)• Regional pattern of homicide mortality shows West-East

and South-North (European part of Russia) gradient of homicide mortality.

• Alcohol is still an important factor of violent crime and homicide in particular. However, the role of alcohol as a factor of violent crime is declining.

• Economic and structural changes during the transition period (increase in poverty and income inequality, decline in GDP) appears to be important factors of violent crime and will largely determine the future direction of violent crime in Russia. However these trends may be partially alleviated by population aging.