Pannonian Basin Experiment (PannEx) GHP PANEL MEETING, 24 – 26 OCTOBER 2018

SANTIAGO, CHILE

MONIKA LAKATOS, OMSZ, HUNGARY, LAKATOS.M@MET.HU

Pannonian (Carpathian) basin HighestpeakoftheCarpathianMountains:Gerlachovskýš:t2655m(Slovakia)

WCRPGrandChallenges-WATERFORFOODBASKETS

Howwillawarmingworldaffecttheavailablefreshwaterresourcesglobally?(Focusonthegeophysicalprocessesandtheanthropogenicinfluencesontheseprocesses)Howdoesthistranslatespecificallytothefoodbasketregionsoftheworld?

Pannonian Basin

Great Plains and Central Valley

SE Asia Rice and Wheat Regions

Climate Prediction Program for the Americas

(CPPA)

Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment

in Amazonia (LBA)

La Plata Basin (LPB)

African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis

(AMMA)

Murray-Darling Basin (MDB)

Mackenzie GEWEX Studies (MAGS)

GEWEX Asia Monsoon Experiments (GAME)

Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX)

Northern Eurasia Earth Science Partnership

(NEESPI)

Monsoon Asian Hydro-Atmosphere Science

Research and prediction Initiative

(MAHASRI)

New North American Water Related RHP

Latin American RHP

Baltic Earth

SE Asian RHP

Pannonian Basin

HYdrological cycle in the Mediterranean EXperiment

(HYMEX)

Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) -

Saskatchewan River Basin (SRB)

HYVIC

"OzEWEX"Current RHPsFormer RHPsProspective RHPs

BoramLee,2ndPannExWSBudapest

Recent drought on the Danube, dry condiUons on the upper catchment, October 2018

source:MTI//MáthéZoltán,16thofOctober source:HuszXIstván/Index

DriDanube project – covering PannEx area- Drought User Service

Changing in climate extremes in the Carpathian region, 1961-2010- CarpatClim dataset

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1961 1971 1981 1991 2001Warmdays

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1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Simpledailyintensity

h[p://www.carpatclim-eu.org/

1stWSOsijek,11/2015

2ndWSBudapest,June2016WBfirst

drab

3rdWSCluj,March2017WB

final

1stIPCmeeXng09/2017SPfirst

drab

2ndIPCmeeXngextended06/2018Ljubljana

4thWSBudapest04/09/2018

Short History of PannEx

Recent publicaUon-available online 26 May 2018  AndrejCeglar,Adina-ElizaCroitoru,JoanCuxart,VladimirDjurdjevic,IvanGü[ler,BrankaIvančan-Picek,DanijelJug,MónikaLakatos,TamásWeidinger:PannEx:thePannonianBasinExperiment

 h[ps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/arXcle/pii/S2405880718300165

 WCRPsharednewsthroughoutonline"sciencehighlight"

FQs and Cross Cuts within PannEx CC2:Processmodelling

Documents available 5FQSAND3CCS,72CONTRIBUTOR,FINALIZED SCIENCEANDIMPLEMENTATIONPLAN

h[ps://sites.google.com/site/projectpannex/

White book is uploaded to the PannEx page

Task Teams q Agro-climatologicalandbiologicalsystemsq Micrometeorologyandagronomicalprocessmodellingq Airqualityandurbanstudiesq EnergyProducXonq EcologicalServicesq Waterbalanceatthebasinscaleq Modellingfromclimatetoflashfloodsq SpecialobservaXonsanddataanalysisq OutreachandEducaXon

Proposed activities: • IntercomparisonofNWPmodels(ALADIN/AROME,COSMO,WRF,andalsoECMWF/IFS)fortypicalweathersituaXonsofthePannonianBasinwheremodelsfacedifficulXes• E.g.:winteranXcycloniccases,summerconvecXveprecipitaXon• Startwithcasestudies(periodsperhapslater)• Usingdatafromlocalmeasurementcampaigns(e.g.PABLS)• Shortterm(in1-2years):networking,idenXfyingcasestudies,definingmethodology• Mediumterm:(in3-4years):runningcommoncasestudies,idenXfyingmodelerrors,sensiXvitystudies,recommendaXonsforimprovement,trytoapplyforfunding

Task Team: Modelling from climate to flash floods– Status of NWP part

AROME,+14hlowcloudforecast

MSG

Possible candidate for case study: winter anUcyclonic low cloud case

OperaXonalNWPmodelstendtounderesXmatelowcloudsduringwinteranXcyclonesinthePannonianBasin

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0.0

Some past and recent acUviUes ESAcall:BLACKSEAANDDANUBEREGIONALINITIATIVE

 ESAOpenInvitaXontoTenderAO9487OpenDate:06/08/2018,1stofOctober(13:00).◦  researchacXviXestoadvancetheuseofESAandnon-ESAEOmissionstowardstheachievementofmajorscienXficchallengesidenXfiedforthenextdecadeattheBlackSeafromSpaceWorkshopandbythePannExcommunity.

◦ Danube+DroughtEarlyWarning◦ 200,000eur,atleasttwopartners,2years◦ RomaniaandSloveniaareeligiblefromthePannExregion

 Deadline19October2018 2submissions

EMS Annual MeeUng: European Conference for Applied Meteorology and Climatology 2018

 OSA2.7:PannEx:TheWaterandenergycyclesinthePannonianBasinandtheirinteracXonswithhumanacXviXes Abstract:totalaccepted27,oral15,poster12,twogranted hXps://meeZngorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2018/sessionprogramme

 RegularPannExmeeZnginELU DateandXme:4September16h-19h

Some past and recent acUviUes

o 8THGEWEXOPENSCIENCECONFERENCE:EXTREMESANDWATERONTHEEDGE,MAY6-11,2018,CANMORE,CANADA:Lakatos,M.,Weidinger,T.,Horváth,Á.,Hoffmann,L.,Bihari,Z.,SzenXmrey,T.,Cuxart-Rodamilans,J.:Computa7onofPETondailyscaletoes7matethesurfaceenergybudgetcomponentsintheregionofthePannExRHP

Funds  BilateralcallsrespondedbythePannExcommunity

 TwoOngoingbilateralproject:“FirstmicrometeorologicalresearchwithintheCroaXan-HungariancollaboraXon(FIMO-CROHUN)”,partners:EötvösLorándUniversity(MeteorologicalDepartment),Budapest,HungaryandUniversityofZagreb(GeophysicalDepartment),Zagreb,CroaXa,Xmeframe:2017-2018,Serbian-Hungarian:ELUandUnivofNis

 Submi[ed:

 Partlycoverstheregion:EEA-NorwayGrantCall:CommonChallenges–SharedSoluXons:ProjectXtle:Coupledmeteorologicalandhydrologicalmodellinganddatasupportforreducingtheriskofflashfloods,droughts,soildegrada8onandwaterpollu8on,leader:InsXtuteforSoilSciencesandAgrochemistryHungary,NorwegianInsXtuteofBioeconomyResearch,NIBIO,Met.NO,OMSZandVarimax(Hungary);UniversityofLjubljana,UniversityofZagreb,ZagrebUniversityofAppliedSciencesLatvianUniversityofAgriculture/Latvia,TallinnUniversityofTechnology/Estonia–BalZcEarthregion

Future plans q ThemostrecenttaskistheadverZsingofthetaskteamstoreachtherelevantexpertandinsXtuXonsintheregionandtomoXvatemembersofthecommunitytocontributetotheworkoftheTaskTeams,andtocreaXonofthenextiteraXonoftheScienceandImplementaXonPlan(SP).q Onthe4thPannExWSweagreedontheplaceanddateofthenextPannExWS,thehostwillbeBranislavaLalicUniversityofNoviSad(Serbia),theproposeddateisJune2019.q PreparaXonandsendinganofficialinvitaZonleXerforTTleadersandvice-leadersq EncouragethepresentersoftheEMS18topublishconferencepapersin'AdvancesinScienceandResearch–ContribuXonsinAppliedMeteorologyandClimatology',submissiondeadline15January2019q suggestPannEx-HyMeXandBalXcEarthcommuniXesforajoinedRHPsessionontheconferenceEMS2019Copenhagenq SearchingforfundingopXons

ComputaUon of PET on daily scale to esUmate the surface energy budget components in the region of the PannEx RHP 8TH GEWEX OPEN SCIENCE CONFERENCE: EXTREMES AND WATER ON THE EDGE, MAY 6 - 11, 2018, CANMORE, CANADA

1 LAKATOS, M. , 2 WEIDINGER, T. , 1 HORVÁTH, Á . , 1 HOFFMANN, L . , 1 B IHARI , Z . , 1 SZENTIMREY, T. , 3 CUXART-RODAMILANS, J . 1 HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, 2 DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY, EÖTVÖS LORÁND UNIVERSITY, 3 UNIVERSITY OF THE BALEARIC ISLANDS

CarpatClim data sources NMHSs in the region

415 climate stations and 904 precipitation stations were used

Monthly PET in CarpatClim

Daily PET: Penman-Monteith Reference EvapotranspiraUon method 17stepsforcalculaXonsfromstandardmeteorologicaldata(CarpatClimgrid)

Dayoftheyear,laXtude,longitude,Tmin,Tmax,

windspeed,

relaXvehumidity

ETo=referenceevapotranspiraXon,mmday-1;Rn=netradiaXonatthecropsurface,MJm-2d-1;G=soilheatfluxdensity,MJm-2d-1;T=meandailyairtemperatureat2mheight,°C;u2=windspeedat2mheight,ms-1;es–ea=saturaXonvaporpressuredeficit,kPa;Δ=slopeofthevaporpressurecurve,kPaºC-1;γ =psychrometricconstant,kPa°C-1.

"#↓% = 0.408'()↓* −+)+-900/#+273 /↓2 ( 0↓1 − 0↓2 )/∆+-(1+0.34/↓2 ) 

Reference:Zotarelli,L.,Dukes,M.D.,Romero,C.C.,Migliaccio,K.W.,,andMorgan,K.T.,2010:StepbyStepCalculaXonofthePenman-MonteithEvapotranspiraXon(FAO-56Method),IFASExtension,UniversityofFlorida,h[p://edis.ifas.ufl.edu

 CarpatClim monthly PET

 derived from daily (Penman-Monteith) PET values

July 2007 Monthly PET

NatureParkKopačkirit,177km²inEasternCroaXa,moorland

WRF-NOAH coupled model system- Case study for 18.07.2007-22.07.2007 very hot period

 Modellparameterswereused:

 LH:descripXon="LATENTHEATFLUXATTHESURFACE";T2:descripXon=„TEMPat2M” Ho[estday:20.07.2007

LH 2007-07-20_14:00:00 UTC

T2 2007-07-20_14:00:00 UTC

Comparison of the regional average of the modelled (WRF) and measured

(CCR: CarpatClim) values for the Kopački rit

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Kopacs_LH_WRF Kopacs_CCR_ETO

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Conclusion and future plans

o TheCarpatClimdatasetisanappropriatedatasetforstudyingtheradiaXonandenergybudgetcomponentsondailyscaleinthePannExregiono InthisstudytheCarpatClimisextendedwithdailyPETvaluesforotherapplicaXonso toanalysethesurfaceenergybudgetcomponentsbasedontheWRF-NOAHcoupledmodelsystemo ToextendtheCarpatClimdatasetwithland-use,albedoandsoilmoisturedatatosupportthePannExacXviXeso ToesXmaXonofdailyPETwithusingactualland-coverCarpatClimdatabase

Thank you for your kind akenUon