Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the worldBy: Neville Mandimika Economist – Rand Merchant Bank

Stylized facts: Regional and global integration

1. A rotation away from inward-looking policies

2. Get accustomed to regional relat ive valuations

3. Recoupl ing to global and regional growth dynamics

RMB DNAINVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SCORE

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT SCORE

50%50%

Market Size60%

Market Growth 40%

Business Index25% 25%

Global Competitive Index

Corruption Perceptions Index

Economic Freedom Index

25% 25%

2016 Current

Where does Zimbabwe rank?

39 45Botswana: 12

Zambia: 17

Mozambique: 19

Malawi: 30

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Botswana Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe%

ECONOMIC GROWTH

MARKET SIZEAngola, 11%

Ethiopia, 7%

Kenya, 7%

igeria, 32%

Zimbabwe, 1%

5101520253035

Cam

eroo

n

Uga

nda

Zam

bia

Zim

babw

e

Bots

wan

a

Sene

gal

Moz

ambi

que

Mal

awi

US$,bn

Time to catch upZambia

6.5%

Uganda

7%

Côte d ’ Ivo i re

20%!

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Zim

babw

e

Tuni

sia

Nam

ibia

Mor

occo

Seyc

helle

s

Sout

h Af

rica

Bots

wan

a

Rwan

da

Mau

ritiu

s

Africa Average• Policy incoherence

• Exchange controls

• Indigenization Act

• Bond notes?

BOND NOTES – A NEW DAWN?

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 May 17 Aug 17 Nov 17 Feb 18

USD/BOL - Old Mutual USD/BOL - Bitcoin USD/BOL - PPC

Elections

Non-credible elections

FDI and portfolio flows

stay on the sidelines

Credible elections

FDI and portfolio flows resume

It’s not who wins but how that matters