Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the...

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Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the world By: Neville Mandimika Economist – Rand Merchant Bank

Transcript of Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the...

Page 1: Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the worldzimreal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Neville-Mandimika.pdf · BOND NOTES – A NEW DAWN? 0.80. 1.00. 1.20. 1.40. 1.60. 1.80. 2.00. Aug 16.

Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the worldBy: Neville Mandimika Economist – Rand Merchant Bank

Page 2: Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the worldzimreal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Neville-Mandimika.pdf · BOND NOTES – A NEW DAWN? 0.80. 1.00. 1.20. 1.40. 1.60. 1.80. 2.00. Aug 16.

Stylized facts: Regional and global integration

1. A rotation away from inward-looking policies

2. Get accustomed to regional relat ive valuations

3. Recoupl ing to global and regional growth dynamics

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RMB DNAINVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY SCORE

OPERATING ENVIRONMENT SCORE

50%50%

Market Size60%

Market Growth 40%

Business Index25% 25%

Global Competitive Index

Corruption Perceptions Index

Economic Freedom Index

25% 25%

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2016 Current

Where does Zimbabwe rank?

39 45Botswana: 12

Zambia: 17

Mozambique: 19

Malawi: 30

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-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Botswana Malawi Mozambique Zambia Zimbabwe%

ECONOMIC GROWTH

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MARKET SIZEAngola, 11%

Ethiopia, 7%

Kenya, 7%

igeria, 32%

Zimbabwe, 1%

5101520253035

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US$,bn

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Time to catch upZambia

6.5%

Uganda

7%

Côte d ’ Ivo i re

20%!

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OPERATING ENVIRONMENT

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Zim

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Tuni

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Mor

occo

Seyc

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Africa Average• Policy incoherence

• Exchange controls

• Indigenization Act

• Bond notes?

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BOND NOTES – A NEW DAWN?

0.80

1.00

1.20

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1.60

1.80

2.00

Aug 16 Nov 16 Feb 17 May 17 Aug 17 Nov 17 Feb 18

USD/BOL - Old Mutual USD/BOL - Bitcoin USD/BOL - PPC

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Elections

Non-credible elections

FDI and portfolio flows

stay on the sidelines

Credible elections

FDI and portfolio flows resume

It’s not who wins but how that matters

Page 11: Opening Zimbabwe’s doors to the worldzimreal.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Neville-Mandimika.pdf · BOND NOTES – A NEW DAWN? 0.80. 1.00. 1.20. 1.40. 1.60. 1.80. 2.00. Aug 16.