Post on 30-Jul-2015
OODA.MODELS.CODE.VELOCITYAneel Lakhani
NOT QUALIFIED TO GIVE THIS TALK
MarketingAnalystProduct
Infra ArchNet Eng
Sys AdminNOC Op
Tech Support
HE ISUSAF Colonel & Military Strategist
John Richard Boyd
OODAOBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE
ACT
ECOLOGICAL PSYCHOLOGY
AFFORDANCES
Empirical PsychologistJames J. Gibson
A KNOB AFFORDS TWISTING, AND PERHAPS PUSHING, WHILE A CORD AFFORDS PULLING.
AN AFFORDANCE [IS] THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ACTION, AND IS NOT A PROPERTY OF EITHER AN ORGANISM OR ITS ENVIRONMENT ALONE.
COGNITION GRASPS AFFORDANCES
ACTION UNLOCKS AFFORDANCES
OODA == COGNITION-ACTION
OODA : COGNITION-ACTION ::
__ : AFFORDANCE
HOW DO WE GO FROM OBSERVATION TO ORIENTATION?
HOW DO WE GO FROM ORIENTATION TO DECISION?
WE BUILD MODELS
WE PUT OBSERVATIONS INTO MODELS
WE [TEND TO] IGNORE OBSERVATIONS THAT DON’T FIT OUR MODELS
WE ORIENT WITH AND TO MODELS
WE MAKE DECISIONS [ONLY] WITHIN THE FRAMEWORKS OF OUR MODELS
WE MODEL ALL THE THINGS
FASTER!!![CARGO CULT VERSION]
OPERATE INSIDE THE [ADVERSARY’S]
TIME SCALE
1 Adversary 1: OODA
2 Adversary 1: OODA
3 Adversary 1: OODAOODAOODA
4 Adversary 1: OODA^X
Adversary 2: OOD_
Adversary 2: OO__
Adversary 2: OOD_OO_O_
Adversary 2: OOD_O_D_A_O
MOVING FORWARD IN TIME
PARTS OF THE LOOP ARE NOT EQUAL
OBSERVE & ACT VS
ORIENT & DECIDE
FIRST-ORIENTER DISADVANTAGE
Law & Finance ProfessorFrank Portnoy
DELAYING DECIDE-ACT
OFTEN MEANS COMING OUT
AHEAD
MAPPING
WONDER, PEACE, WAR BUSINESS CYCLES
Researcher of Strategy & MapmakerSimon Wardley
MULTIPLE PRACTICES,
CULTURES, AND STAGES OF
EVOLUTION COEXIST
CAUSING AN ADVERSARY’S MODEL TO BE “INVALID” IS THE PRIMARY MEANS OF
“WINNING”
TAKING OUR MODELS TOO SERIOUSLY IS A RISK WAITING TO BE EXPLOITED (OR
BLOWN UP)
BLACK SWANS
ANTIFRAGILITYProfessor of Risk Engineering
N. N. Taleb
BLACK SWANS LIE OUTSIDE OUR
MODELS
[IMMOVABLE] MODELS CREATE
FRAGILITY
SCALES OF ABSTRACTION
PROMISE THEORYArchitect of CFEngine
Mark Burgess
EVERY MODEL HAS A HALF LIFE
SO WHAT?
THERE’S AN INHERENT ADVANTAGE WHEN EVERYTHING IS CODE
OBSERVATION CAN BE INSTRUMENTEDSCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
ACTION CAN BE AUTOMATED SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
ORIENTATION AND DECISION CAN BE SHORT-CIRCUITED [FOR KNOWN MODELS]
SCALED BEYOND HUMAN CAPACITY
TIME CAN BE REALLOCATED TO ORIENTING AND DECIDING IN NOVEL CONTEXTS
SCALING TO HUMAN CAPACITY
CAUTION: ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE USEFUL [IN SOME CONTEXT]
CAUTION: OUR MODELS ARE BIASED BY OUR BIASES
CAUTION: MODELS ARE NOT SCALE-INVARIANT
Scales: number, size, resolution, frequency, dimensionality, time, rate of change
CAUTION: SAFE MODELS BECOME RISKY AT DIFFERENT SCALES / CONTEXTS
KNOW THE CONTEXT
SEEK MODEL INVALIDATION
ORIENTATION AND DECISIONThrough streaming analytics, exploring metrics in real time, as they’re created, building
meaningful (composite) signals, creating leverage for Orient and Decide. Invalidating models daily.
READ PRIMARY SOURCES (OR FEWEST DEGREES FROM)
ADVANCED MONITORING PLATFORM FOR MODERN APPLICATIONS
https://signalfx.com
IMAGE CREDITS• J.J. Gibson: Cornell University Library
• Frank Partnoy: Startup Grind
• N.N. Taleb: NY Times
• Mark Burgess: markburgess.org
• Book cover images from Amazon
• Coffee: me
• Me: not me