Post on 30-Dec-2015
Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center
Predictive ServicesSpring and early Summer 2015Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook
Wednesday April 22nd 2015
Climate Summary since April 1st 2015:
Temperature(departure
from normal)
Precipitation(percentage of
normal)
Climate Summary since Jan 1st 2015:
Temperature(departure
from normal)
Precipitation(percentage of
normal)
Pendleton Airport Rainfall Accumulation Summary since Jan 1st 2015:
El Nino Status as of March 5th 2015:ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory
“In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015. Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated.” -from March 5th 2015 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation OutlookRemainder of April 2015
Most likely scenario: Temperature varied
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:Wet north
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation OutlookMay 2015
Most likely scenario: Warm
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:No clear trend foreseen
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation OutlookJune and July 2015
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:Dry west of Cascades but not inland.
Most likely scenario: Unusually warm temperatures continue
NWCC Predictive Services outlook :
May 2015
The Northwest Geographic Area is out of fire season. Fire danger indices are not sufficiently elevated to support unusual risk of Significant
Fires in the region. Even during spells of dry weather, conditions in April and May are historically not conducive to large, costly
wildfires.
NWCC Predictive Services outlook :
June and July 2015
Elevated risk of large, costly fires (mainly from lightning) is expected to expand northward from California into Oregon and Washington in June
and cover most of the region by July. This designation of elevated Significant Fire risk is based on warm temperatures, low snowpack,
and early greenup.
NWCC Predictive Services note :
Due to poor snowpack at higher elevations and generally dry conditions since the first of the year, fire management units are advised to use caution during
prescribed burns in windy weather.
Next Outlook:May 4th 2015