Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015...
-
Upload
steven-paul -
Category
Documents
-
view
216 -
download
0
Transcript of Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015...
![Page 1: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center
Predictive ServicesSpring and early Summer 2015Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook
Wednesday April 22nd 2015
![Page 2: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Climate Summary since April 1st 2015:
Temperature(departure
from normal)
Precipitation(percentage of
normal)
![Page 3: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Climate Summary since Jan 1st 2015:
Temperature(departure
from normal)
Precipitation(percentage of
normal)
![Page 4: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Pendleton Airport Rainfall Accumulation Summary since Jan 1st 2015:
![Page 5: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
![Page 6: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
![Page 10: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
El Nino Status as of March 5th 2015:ENSO Status: El Nino Advisory
“In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015. Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated.” -from March 5th 2015 El Nino Diagnostic Discussion
![Page 11: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation OutlookRemainder of April 2015
Most likely scenario: Temperature varied
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:Wet north
![Page 12: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Monthly Temperature and Precipitation OutlookMay 2015
Most likely scenario: Warm
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:No clear trend foreseen
![Page 13: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation OutlookJune and July 2015
Temperatures Precipitation
Most likely scenario:Dry west of Cascades but not inland.
Most likely scenario: Unusually warm temperatures continue
![Page 14: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
![Page 15: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
![Page 16: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
NWCC Predictive Services outlook :
May 2015
The Northwest Geographic Area is out of fire season. Fire danger indices are not sufficiently elevated to support unusual risk of Significant
Fires in the region. Even during spells of dry weather, conditions in April and May are historically not conducive to large, costly
wildfires.
![Page 17: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
NWCC Predictive Services outlook :
June and July 2015
Elevated risk of large, costly fires (mainly from lightning) is expected to expand northward from California into Oregon and Washington in June
and cover most of the region by July. This designation of elevated Significant Fire risk is based on warm temperatures, low snowpack,
and early greenup.
![Page 18: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
NWCC Predictive Services note :
Due to poor snowpack at higher elevations and generally dry conditions since the first of the year, fire management units are advised to use caution during
prescribed burns in windy weather.
![Page 19: Northwest Geographic Area Coordination Center Predictive Services Spring and early Summer 2015 Climate and Significant Fire Potential Outlook Wednesday.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032606/56649e8e5503460f94b9253a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Next Outlook:May 4th 2015