Nomura Annual Financials Conference · 2011. 9. 2. · This presentation does not imply that Nordea...

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Nomura Annual Financials Conference 31 August 2011 Fredrik Rystedt Group CFO / EVP

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and potential financial performance. Although Nordea believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, no assurance can be given that such expectations will prove to have been correct. Accordingly, results could differ materially from those set out in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors.

Important factors that may cause such a difference for Nordea include, but are not limited to: (i) the macroeconomic development, (ii) change in the competitive climate, (iii) change in the regulatory environment and other government actions and (iv) change in interest rate and foreign exchange rate levels.

This presentation does not imply that Nordea has undertaken to revise these forward-looking statements, beyond what is required by applicable law or applicable stock exchange regulations if and when circumstances arise that will lead to changes compared to the date when these statements were provided.

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The Nordic economy

Sovereign mistrust accelerates…

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…however the Nordics are still doing fine

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Stable macroeconomics in the Nordic region

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Nordic GDP growth, %, y/y

Source: Nordea Markets

Covered bond market continues to be solid

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

okt-10 dec-10 feb-11 apr-11 jun-11 aug-11

Z-spread (bps)

Peer Nordea Peer Peer Peer Peer

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

okt-10 dec-10 feb-11 apr-11 jun-11 aug-11

Z-spread (bps)

Peer Peer Nordea Peer Peer Peer Peer

Nordic banks’ Euro covered bond development Nordic banks’ US$ covered bond development

Source data: Barclays Capital and Bloomberg, 11 August 7

The Riksbank is now expected to cut rates

8 Source: Nordea Markets

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H1 2011 results

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Summary of H1 2011 • Solid business momentum is maintained

• Strong inflow of new customers • Good revenue growth in customer areas • Maintained high level of business volume

• Credit quality continues to improve

• Reduction of impaired loans • Positive credit migration • Loan losses are at the lowest level since 2008

• Result impacted by volatile markets

• Trading result down from last quarter’s high level • Higher funding costs through reduced risk exposure

• Continued strengthening of the capital position

• Core Tier 1 reaching 11% (10.7%)

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Result highlights

EURm H1/11 H1/10 Chg %

Net interest income 2,650 2,484 7

Net fee and commission income 1,225 1,013 21

Net result items at fair value 900 887 1

Other income 77 80 -4

Total income 4,852 4.464 9

Staff costs -1,512 -1,388 9

Total expenses -2,540 -2,350 8

Profit before loan losses 2,312 2,114 9

Net loan losses -360 -506 -29

Operating profit 1,952 1,608 21

Net profit 1,442 1,182 22

Risk-adjusted profit 1,414 1,194 18

Christian Clausen President and Group

CEO

Ari Kaperi Group Risk Management

Group CRO

Casper von Koskull Wholesale Banking

Peter Nyegaard (COO)

Michael Rasmussen Retail Banking

Torsten H. Jørgensen Group Operations & Other

Lines of Business

Fredrik Rystedt Group Corporate Centre,

Group CFO

New Group organisation as of June 1st

Gunn Wærsted Wealth Management

Group Human Resources

Henrik Priergaard

Group Internal Audit Eva-Lotta Rosenqvist

Group Identity & Communications

Jan Larsson

• Three main Business Areas: Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Wealth Management

• Organised in the value chain

• Objective to improve efficiency, increase RoE and deepen customer relationships

• Financial reporting will be changed in accordance with the new organisation from Q3 2011

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13

Nordea has delivered

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2006 2010

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

2006 20100

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

2006 2010

Five year trends

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Income, EUR millions Cost, EUR millions

Pre-provision profit, EUR millions Net income, EUR millions

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

2006 2010

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Increased customer acknowledgement

Absolute Group CSI CSI gap to peers (points) Position in Prospera equity ranking (Nordic average)

71 72

2007 2010

3,0

-0,6

2007 2010

12

5

2007 2010

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Improved market position

Household lending market share Nordic avg.

17.6%

18.5%

2006 2010

Private Banking, market share

15%

13%

2007 2010

AuM, growth 2007-2010*

21%

11%

Peers Nordea

Corporate lending market share Nordic avg.

21.1% 21.3%

2006 2010

Capital Markets income relative to best peer

2007 2010

Unit Link premiums (EURbn***)

1.2

2.8

2007 2010

2X 3X

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Improved productivity ratios

65 6664 64 65 67

71 71 69

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11

207 205 201 200 200207

221 219212

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11

3,4 3,23,7

5,5 5,24,6

5,8

7,1

6,0

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11

314 320 318 319 324 323 324 323 325

Q2/09 Q3/09 Q4/09 Q1/10 Q2/10 Q3/10 Q4/10 Q1/11 Q2/11

Income/FTE, EURt Income/customer, EUR

360° meetings and new customers/ week/PBA # customers per FTE

Income excl. Treasury

10,1%

10,0%

10,4%

10,3%

10,7%

11,0%

9,5%

9,8%

10,0%

10,3%

10,5%

10,8%

11,0%

11,3%

Q1 10 Q2 10 Q310 Q3410 Q1 11 Q2 11

A solid capital position

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Development of Core Tier 1-ratio

Low volatility in operating profit

3254

227

285

1415

Peer Nordea Peer Peer Peer Peer

Quarterly variation operating profit*, %

19

20

RAP: We are well on track

Risk-adjusted profit, 2007-2011 Q2

Q10

7Q

207

Q30

7Q

407

Q10

8Q

208

Q30

8Q

408

Q10

9Q

209

Q30

9Q

409

Q11

0Q

210

Q31

0Q

410

Q11

1

Rolling four quarter compared with FY 2006 EUR 1,957m

Long-term target for average yearly growth

56.1%

45.1%

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ROE: In line with top peers

19.1

14.8

11.3 11.3

14.1

17.6

9.7

2.2

7.6

9.3

2007 2008 2009 2010 Average 2007-2010

Nordea Average Nordic peers

Adjusted¹ Return on Equity 2007-2010

¹ To be comparable RoE is adjusted for one-offs ² Nordic peers as per Q3: Danske Bank, DnB NOR, SEB, SHB, Swedbank

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-19,0

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

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Com

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Lloy

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Gen

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DnB

NO

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SH

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% Top quartile

Source: ThomsonReuters Datastream

TSR: Top quartile performance Total shareholder return vs. European peer group, 2007 - 2011 YTD (as of August 26)

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Adapting to New Normal

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Nordea’s ambition is to be top-league in ROE

Retail banks

Wholesale banks

Global banks

European banks ROE

Note: Peers according to BoAML, April 12 2011

15% is top-league

0%2%4%6%8%

10%12%14%16%18%20%

A superior ROE will differentiate Nordea

A continued high credit rating (AA)

Low relative funding costs

Flexibility on management of capital levels

Opportunity to continue to invest in Great customer experience

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Our communicated ambitions

Communicated ambition

Income Continued focus on business momentum

Costs Contain cost growth, largely unchanged for a prolonged period of time Reduce number of employees by circa 2,000

Capital RWA efficiency

ROE To be top-league in Europe, ~15%

Income momentum

Continued focus on customer relationships

• Great customer experience

• Larger share of wallet with the large customers

• Increased share of ancillary income

Improved margins

• Higher deposit margins following higher interest rates

• Announced margin increases in Denmark

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Efficiency initiatives: asset efficiency

Risk-weighted assets excl. transition rules vs. total lending, EURbn

• Low growth of risk-weighted assets

• A decrease of 1% q-o-q

• RWA optimisation and improved credit quality

95

100

105

110

115

120

Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11

Lending RWA excl.transition rules

Efficiency initiatives: cost efficiency

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• Implement plans to contain cost growth

• Thereafter keep costs largely unchanged for a prolonged period of time

Q2 2009 Q2 2011

Total operating expenses, EURm

We will reduce employee numbers by circa 2,000

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• Reduction of employees by the end of 2012:

• Denmark 500 - 650 employees

• Finland 500 - 650 employees

• Norway 200 - 300 employees

• Sweden 500 - 650 employees

• Acting early from a position of strength to increase profitability, safeguard our good rating and our competitive funding

• Large share of staff reduction natural turn-over and voluntary agreements

• Trade union negotiations expected to be finalised by November 2011

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Key messages

• First half year result continues to be solid

• Nordea’s relationship strategy has delivered strong business momentum…

• …and is a solid foundation for implementing the new normal plan • Ambition: ROE in top league of European banks ~15% • Cost efficiency: implement plans to contain cost growth and

thereafter keep costs largely unchanged for a prolonged period of time

• Capital efficiency: Ensure moderate RWA increases, despite continued income growth

Nomura Annual Financials Conference 31 August 2011 Fredrik Rystedt Group CFO / EVP