Post on 13-Oct-2020
NDPA Overview Slides
September 4, 2020
Justin J KringstadGeological Engineer
Director
North Dakota Pipeline Authority
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Bakken & Three Forks Formations
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Bakken Formation Three Forks Formation
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Monthly Oil & Gas Production Change
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Holding Aug. 2020 Oil Constant at 1.23MMBPD (est.)Answering the question, “How many well completions to hold oil production flat?”
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Below Curve: Oil Production Dropping
Above Curve: Oil Production Increasing
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Base Decline Challenges
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March to June 75+% M-O-M Oil Drop
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May & June ComparisonJune 2020May 2020
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Vintage Year of Shut-In Wells – June 2020
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Wells Most Likely to Return Quickly? (May)
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1,881 Wells (28%)
WOR: 2 or Lower
BOPD: 50+
Total: 356,816 BOPD (70+%)
Shut-In
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GOR Decrease From Returning Curtailed Wells
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Well Selection Criteria
Production Days in May: 0-1 Days
March Oil Production: >1 BOPD
June Oil Production: >1 BOPD
Pool: Bakken/Three Forks/Sanish
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EIA Price Deck (Near Term)
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Shut-In Assumptions: EIA Price Deck
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ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)
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ND Completions: EIA Price Deck (Near Term)
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Base & High Cases
Low Case
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ND Oil Production: EIA Price Deck
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Monthly Completion Scenarios: Crude Oil
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Monthly Completion Scenarios: Wellhead Gas
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Williston Basin Oil Production & Export Capacity, BOPD
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Showing DAPL Outage
Unlikely Near Term
Scenario with Recent
Court Decisions
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NDPA Production Forecast and Rail Transportation
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NDPA Base Case Oil Production Forecast (Green)
Pipeline Capacity Shortfall (Grey):
“Need” to Rail
Rail History (Red):
Exceeds “Need” - Delta Considered “Elective/Market Driven”
Assu
mes D
AP
L R
etu
rns t
o S
erv
ice S
ep
2021
Estimated Williston Basin Oil Transportation
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Estimated ND Rail Export Volumes
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Rail Destinations Market Share (May 2020)
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Data for Rail Destination Market Share Provided by the US Energy Information Administration
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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ND Gas Production: EIA Price Deck
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Solving the Flaring Challenge
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Solving the Flaring ChallengeAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Gas Processing Capacity & Future OutlookAssumes Current Technology – Enhanced Oil Recovery Not Included
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Historical
Historical
Expected
Expected
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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity
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Historical Expected
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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity
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Historical Expected
9%
24%
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Gas Processing Capacity & Spare Capacity
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Historical Expected
9%
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Natural Gas Update
Production
• Technology
• Markets
Gathering
• Capacity
• Connections
Processing
• Capacity
• Location
Transmission
• Dry Gas
• Natural Gas Liquids
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Major Gas Pipeline and
Processing Infrastructure
WBI Transmission
Whiting
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Bakken Natural Gas Infrastructure
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Northern Border Pipeline
*Data Source: Northern Border
Northern Border BTU at Glen Ullin, ND
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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Known BTU Limits
NGPL: 1,065Midwestern:
1,100
Vector: 1,100Guardian: 1,100
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NB Pipeline Interconnects With BTU Limits > 1,100
NNG:
No Limit
ANR: 1,200
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NB Pipeline Interconnects With Ability to Add Limits
Horizon:
Ability to
Post Upper
Limit
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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*
*Includes Updated Tariff Timeline to 1,100
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Northern Border – BTU Calculations*
*Assumes Equivalent Net Replacement of 1,035 Canadian Gas
Does Not Include Market Based
Pairing Expenses
Est. Annual
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BTU Calculations to Meet Proposed 1,100 BTU Spec.Approximate Q1-20 BTU Breakdown Demo Pairing Exercise to Meet 1,100 or Less*
*Exact plant specifications are not publicly available and many assumptions
needed to be made for demo pairing. Table may contain errors.
Regional NGL Infrastructure
Kinder
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Ma
rath
on
Pe
tro
leu
m
NGL Pipeline Takeaway Options
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Justin J. Kringstad, DirectorNorth Dakota Pipeline Authority
600 E. Boulevard Ave. Dept. 405Bismarck, ND 58505-0840
Phone: (701)220-6227Fax: (701)328-2820
E-mail: jjkringstad@ndpipelines.com
Websites: www.pipeline.nd.gov
www.northdakotapipelines.com
Contact Information
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