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Market Strategy Diwali Special
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 1
Dear Friends,
I wish you all a Happy Diwali and a Prosperous
New Year!
This auspicious occasion reminds us to renew
our spirit of positivity and optimism which
has the power to turn dreams and aspirations
into reality. In fact, to be pessimistic is to bet
against the human spirit and that will always
be a losing bet! So, if aspirations eventually
become reality then what are India's aspirations? I am sure you will all
agree that it is the aspiration to achieve growth and prosperity that
dominates our national psyche. This is not surprising considering we
are ultimately a nation of young people raring to go.
Just imagine that in the past five years alone, 10 crore more people
aged between 18 to 23 years have joined the workforce in India. No
other country can boast of such numbers, not even China! It is inevitable
that our young country is going to assert its aspirations on the global
stage ever more strongly in the coming years. Imagine the pessimism
that prevailed in China during the eighties, and how, almost overnight
the economy changed, recording an 9-10% growth for the next 20 years.
If that is not the power of a nation's aspirations, then what is!
In fact, some powerful forces are already underway in our economy,not the least of which is the rupee's substantial depreciation. This
depreciation provides powerful stimulation to export growth. Exports
have grown by 15% in the past few months and a continuation of this
trend will raise our GDP growth by a massive 150-200 bps given the
16-17% weightage of value-added exports in our economy. Once this
virtuous cycle is underway, the investment cycle is also likely to revive.
I do believe the government will also rise to the occasion. Why? Because
that is what democratic governments eventually do - they work to enable
the broader aspirations of their nation, in order to survive themselves!
The markets have a tendency to read too much into the day-to-day
gyrations. In fact, if the experience since November 2008 has shown
anything, it is that policymakers and economists globally have figured
out how to manage crises through effective monetary and fiscal stimulus.
The US economy is already recovering and US stock markets are at new
highs. I strongly believe that in the coming months if not days, even our
markets will achieve sustainable new highs!
So this Diwali let’s light up the diya of optimism, shake off all the negativity
and celebrate the good times that are just around the corner!
Best regards,
Dinesh Thakkar
Dinesh Thakkar
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Market Strategy
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October 2013 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 2
On the road to new highs
The recent positives on growth in exports and the anticipated pick-up in agricultural
production do provide reason for optimism on the macro front. Also, we believe that
the delay in Federal Reserve (Fed)'s tapering of QE3 appears as a window of opportunity
for our economy since it gives us space to continue on the course of corrective policy
action and improve resilience against external headwinds. Swift policy measures have
been taken to attract capital inflows in the economy. Consequently FII investors have
returned in the equity market driven by a) global liquidity continuing to remain benign
for now and b) receding domestic macro risks.
Our current account deficit (CAD) is pegged to moderate considerably led by the
performance of exports as well as compression in imports (particularly gold) and the
concern on financing of the deficit has also materially diminished. Meanwhile, some
near-term concerns continue to persist on account of sluggish pace of growth, rise in
inflation and elections remaining an overhang for substantial revival in investment.
But going forward we do believe that irrespective of the government that comes topower, the focus would remain on creating employment opportunities and kick-starting
the capex cycle to boost economic recovery.
Sustainable growth in exports to be a good starting point for
recovery
For three successive months in July, August and September 2013 exports have reported
a robust double-digit growth performance. Apart from positively impacting the trade
deficit, we believe that the improvement in exports is likely to be a good starting point
for economic recovery. We maintain that a sustainable growth in exports with a
double-digit run rate can potentially trigger a virtuous growth cycle and add about
150-200bp to GDP growth as investments start picking up.
Overall, real GDP growth is expected to bottom out during FY2014. We believe that
going forward the gradual easing of interest rates in FY2015 would push up
consumption and investment. Coupled with export growth, these factors are likely to
improve economic performance considarably from headline growth prints presently
hovering around the modest 4-5%-levels.
Outlook and Valuation
We expect the Sensex EPS to post a growth of 9.6% for FY2014 and a healthier 15.4%
for FY2015. Attributing a 15x multiple to our Sensex EPS (in line with the 5-year
average), we arrive at a target of 22,600 for the Sensex, implying an upside of 8.8%
from the present levels.
Owing to near-term cyclical headwinds, we recommend a longer investment horizon
for rate-sensitives. We continue to have a positive outlook on export-oriented sectors
owing to signs of recovery in advanced economies and the rupee depreciation on a
yoy basis. So our top recommendations continue to be in the IT and pharmaceuticals
space. We are positive on the metal sector as well. We believe that the recent capacity
additions and meaningful under-utilized capacity in the metal sector are likely to be
employed for sharp increase in exports going ahead aided by improving global
fundamentals. Although expensive, defensives like FMCG stocks are also likely to
continue to outperform in the current environment. We also selectively prefer large
private banks over a medium to long term perspective but overall continue to maintain
a cautious near-term outlook on the banking sector and PSU banks in particular.
Note: Investment period - 12 Months
BSE Sensex (20,768) and Price as on October 23, 2013
Top Picks
Company CMP ( ` ) TP ( ` )
Wipro 492 567
ICICI Bank 1,025 1,181
Hindustan Zinc 135 156
Axis Bank 1,210 1,392
Cipla 423 504
Tata Steel 335 390
Cadilla 660 894
United Phosphorus 154 225
Aurobindo Pharma 216 271
Crompton Greaves 98 115
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Market Strategy
Diwali Special
October 2013 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 3
Policymakers to maintain global financial stability
Over the past 5 years, post the Lehman crisis, markets have
gone through various risk-on and risk-off phases in anticipation
of global events. The impact of these uncertainties on markets
has been temporary since policymakers have ultimately managed
to negotiate deals (in many instances at the very last-minute)
and averted any undesirable consequences for the economy and
financial markets.
Even in the event of political stalemates extending past the
deadline (as in the case of raising the US debt ceiling in August
2011 and sequester issue in March 2013) pragmatic resolutions
have been adopted going forth so that the economic recovery
does not get derailed. Time and again we have seen that
policymakers, having learnt from their past mistakes, eventually
take mature decisions to maintain stability and avoid disruptionsin global financial markets.
Delayed tapering gives us a window for positive
policy action
The Federal Reserve appears to have put off for now the tapering
of its monthly bond purchases. Through its monetary stimulus,
the Fed is injecting liquidity to the tune of USD85bn per month.
In May 2013, the Fed first indicated at a tapering of its asset
purchases following which the INR (similar to the trend in other
emerging markets [EMs]) witnessed about 25% depreciation and
touched a record-low during August 2013.
The postponement of tapering has come as a tailwind for EMs
including India. We believe that the delay in withdrawing the
stimulus by 3-6 months has provided our economy with a window
for policy action to mitigate our external sector vulnerability and
policymakers have also moved in the right direction by taking
steps to narrow the trade gap and augment capital flows.
Going ahead, the tapering itself appears inevitable but we believe
that our economy is now better poised to tackle the eventual
withdrawal of liquidity stimulus. Buoyed by signs of continuedglobal liquidity since September 2013, FIIs poured in USD3.8bn
in our equity markets. These inflows come on the back of three
Source: SEBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 1: Daily net FII equity inflows in positive territory again
(900)
(600)
(300)
-
300
600
Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13
(USDmn)FII net equity inflows
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Trade deficit to improve significantly
(10.6) (10.4) (10.2)
(11.4)(12.0)
(9.0)
(11.3)
(7.3)
(14)
(12)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
(70)
(60)
(50)
(40)
(30)
(20)
(10)
-
3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14E
(% of GDP)(USD bn) Trade def icit as % of GDP (RHS)
Exports have reported a strong double-digit growth for three
straight months in July, August and September 2013. We believe
that a double-digit export growth run rate, given the weightage
of value-added exports in our economy of at least about 16%,
could potentially add 150-200bp to the overall GDP growth.
Also, this would in turn trigger a virtuous GDP upgrade cycle asinvestments start picking up.
straight months of net FII equity outflows amounting to USD3.7bn.
Subsequently, the INR has recovered by about 12% from its
record low.
Improved external sector outlook
CAD fundamentals:CAD fundamentals:CAD fundamentals:CAD fundamentals:CAD fundamentals: The recent appreciation in the currency is
supported by global cues as well as our receding external risks.
Concerns on India's balance of payment situation have eased
significantly owing to the anticipation of a much lower current
account deficit during FY2014 at about 3.2-3.7% of GDP
compared to 4.8% of GDP in FY2013. This improvement is
expected on the back of growth in exports which is likely to be
supported by the recovering advanced economies like the US,
Japan and to an extent the Eurozone coupled with a weaker INR
on a yoy basis. At the same time, imports are also expected to
be contained led by curbs on gold imports in particular. Aided
by these positives, the estimated trade deficit for 2QFY2014 has
declined dramatically to USD30bn from USD50bn in 1QFY2014.
Source: Ministry of Commerce, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Double-digit export growth for 3 straight months
1.2
(6.6) (6.1)
(12.2)
(6.5) (7.2)
0.7
(2.5)
0.6 1.2 2.3
6.6
(0.8)(3.3)
(5.3)
11.6 13.0
11.2
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
A p r - 1
2
M a y -
1 2
J u n - 1
2
J u l - 1 2
A u g - 1
2
S e p -
1 2
O c t - 1
2
N o v - 1
2
D e c - 1
2
J a n - 1
3
F e
b - 1 3
M a r - 1
3
A p r - 1
3
M a y -
1 3
J u n - 1
3
J u l - 1 3
A u g - 1
3
S e p -
1 3
(%) Export growth
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Market Strategy
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October 2013 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 4
Source: Ministry of Commerce, RBI, Angel Research
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
A p r - 1
2
M a y - 1
2
J u n - 1
2
J u l - 1 2
A u g - 1
2
S e p - 1
2
O c t - 1 2
N o v - 1
2
D e c - 1
2
J a n - 1
3
F e
b - 1
3
M a r - 1
3
A p r - 1
3
M a y - 1
3
J u n - 1
3
J u l - 1 3
A u g - 1
3
S e p - 1
3
(USDbn) Non oil, non gold imports Oil imports Gold imports
Exhibit 4: Lower imports led by curbs on gold
FFFFFinancing the CAD:inancing the CAD:inancing the CAD:inancing the CAD:inancing the CAD: We believe that the concerns surrounding
financing of the current account deficit have materially subsided.
This can be attributed to multiple factors like 1) anticipated
improvement in the CAD itself, 2) postponement of Fed's QE3
tapering and 3) policy measures to attract capital flows. In order
to enhance capital inflows in the economy to finance the CAD
gap, the government has liberalized caps on FDI and FII
investment and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has taken
measures rendering debt and NRI deposits attractive. The RBI's
measures on attracting banking capital in the economy by
November 2013 are alone expected to bring in additional foreign
exchange in the economy to the tune of ~USD10-15bn.
Better agri production to result in easing of food
inflation going ahead
Good monsoon and the increase in area under sowing of kharif
crop bode well for agricultural production during the kharif
season. In addition, conditions (such as soil moisture and
groundwater levels) are also favorable for robust production in
the rabi season. Overall agricultural production is expected to
be boosted during FY2014. As a result, going forward as
harvesting progresses and the new crop enters the market; we
expect the pressure on food inflation to abate.
The easing of food prices is expected to impact headline CPI
inflation substantially. Owing to the higher (almost 50%)
weightage given to the food basket in the index, the headline
CPI inflation has remained elevated. As food inflation recedes,
the CPI would likely moderate from the sticky near double-digit
Source: Office of Economic Adviser, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Elevated vegetables and cereal inflationCereals (wt: 3.4) Pulses (wt: 0.7) Fruits (wt: 2.1) Vegetables (wt: 1.7)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun -13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep -13
(%)
levels. Moderation in food inflation is also likely to have a
cascading positive impact on inflationary expectations and can
potentially result in an increase in the saving and investment
rates for the economy.
Source: Office of Economic Adviser, Mospi, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Trends in WPI and CPI inflation WPI Inflation CPI inflation
6.46
9.84
3.0
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
A p r - 1
2
M a y - 1
2
J u n - 1
2
J u l - 1 2
A u g - 1
2
S e p - 1
2
O c t - 1 2
N o v - 1
2
D e c - 1
2
J a n - 1
3
F e
b - 1
3
M a r - 1
3
A p r - 1
3
M a y - 1
3
J u n - 1
3
J u l - 1 3
A u g - 1
3
S e p - 1
3
(%)
Boost to investment likely post general elections
The investment outlook continues to remain lackluster owing to
sluggish pace of growth, demand environment and still-high
interest rates coupled with political overhang now. Five states
are headed for polls over the next 2 months and general elections
are slated to happen in the next 4-6 months. However, it is likely
that positive outcomes in the upcoming state elections would
build up expectations of a strong government in the general
elections as well. If and when that does happen, with focus
returning on revival of capex and positive structural reforms in
the economy, we believe that new projects and big-ticket
investments in particular are likely to be boosted going forward.
This is likely to provide a further leg up to the market.
Source: Election Commission of India, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Upcoming state and general election calendar
StateStateStateStateState End of termEnd of termEnd of termEnd of termEnd of term Ruling PRuling PRuling PRuling PRuling Party arty arty arty arty SeatsSeatsSeatsSeatsSeats SeatsSeatsSeatsSeatsSeats
in Lin Lin Lin Lin L.S.S.S.S.S in R.Sin R.Sin R.Sin R.Sin R.S
Madhya Pradesh Dec-13 NDA/BJP 29 11
Mizoram Dec-13 UPA/Congress 1 1
NCT Delhi Dec-13 UPA/Congress 7 3
Rajasthan Dec-13 UPA/Congress 25 10Chhattisgarh Jan-14 NDA/BJP 11 5
Sikkim May-14 SDF 1 1
LLLLLok Sabhaok Sabhaok Sabhaok Sabhaok Sabha May May May May May -14-14-14-14-14 UPUPUPUPUP A/Congress A/Congress A/Congress A/Congress A/Congress 545545545545545 245245245245245
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Outlook and Valuation
We expect the Sensex EPS to post a growth of 9.6% for FY2014
and a healthier 15.4% for FY2015. Attributing a 15x multiple to
our Sensex EPS (in line with the 5-year average), we arrive at a
target of 22,600 for the Sensex, implying an upside of 8.8%
from the present levels.
Owing to near-term cyclical headwinds, we recommend a longer
investment horizon for rate-sensitives. We continue to have a
positive outlook on export-oriented sectors owing to signs of
recovery in advanced economies and the rupee depreciation on
a yoy basis. So our top recommendations continue to be in the
IT and pharmaceuticals space. We are positive on the metal
sector as well. We believe that the recent capacity additions and
meaningful under-utilized capacity in the metal sector are likely
to be employed for sharp increase in exports going ahead aided
by improving global fundamentals. Although expensive,
defensives like FMCG stocks are also likely to continue to
outperform in the current environment. We also selectively prefer
large private banks over a medium to long term perspective but
overall continue to maintain a cautious near-term outlook on
the banking sector and PSU banks in particular.
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Sensex one-year-forward P/E
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
Oct-01 Oct-03 Oct-05 Oct-07 Oct-09 Oct-11 Oct-13
Sensex 1 year forward P/E 15 year Avg 5 year Avg
Source: Angel Research
Exhibit 8: Sensex EPS growth over FY2015E
1,192
1,307
1,508
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
( ` )
9.6 % g r o w
t h 1 5. 4
% g r o w t h
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October 2013 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 6
Market Strategy
Diwali Special
Top Picks
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October 2013 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report. 7
Market Strategy
Diwali Special
ICICI Bank's strategic transformation over the past five years has expectedly resulted
in a significantly better balance sheet and earnings quality. CASA ratio, which was
29% at the end of FY2009, has improved to around 43% as of 1QFY2014.
Apart from the paradigm shift in the deposit mix, the bank has largely exited
unattractive business segments such as small-ticket personal loans in the domestic
segment and most non-India related exposures in its international business, which
has resulted in a commensurate decline in credit costs for the bank. Even during
FY2013, credit costs for the bank remained under check at 66bp (which was lower
than the Managements' guidance of 75bp).
The bank's substantial branch expansion (from 1,388 branches at the end of1QFY2009 to 3,350 branches by 1QFY2014) and strong capital adequacy at
18.35% (tier-1 at 12.5%) positions the bank to grow its loan book at a faster rate
than the system average as and when business environment turns conducive. In
the near term, we expect the bank to grow moderately taking into account the
current challenging times for the sector.
The stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 1.5x FY2015E P/ABV. Hence, wewewewewe
maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price ofmaintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price ofmaintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price ofmaintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price ofmaintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of ` ` ` ` ` 1,181, valuing the core1,181, valuing the core1,181, valuing the core1,181, valuing the core1,181, valuing the core
bank at 1.7x FY2015E P/ABbank at 1.7x FY2015E P/ABbank at 1.7x FY2015E P/ABbank at 1.7x FY2015E P/ABbank at 1.7x FY2015E P/AB V and assigning a value of V and assigning a value of V and assigning a value of V and assigning a value of V and assigning a value of ` ` ` ` ` 187 to its subsidiaries.187 to its subsidiaries.187 to its subsidiaries.187 to its subsidiaries.187 to its subsidiaries.
ICICI Bank (CMP: ` 1,025/ TP: ` 1,181/ Upside: 15%)
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E Op Inc.Op Inc.Op Inc.Op Inc.Op Inc. NIMNIMNIMNIMNIM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS AB AB AB AB AB V V V V V RoA RoA RoA RoA RoA RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/ABP/ABP/ABP/ABP/AB V V V V V
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 25,863 3.2 9,624 83.4 632.3 1.6 15.0 12.3 1.6
FY2015E 30,193 3.2 11,187 97.0 695.5 1.6 15.5 10.6 1.5
Wipro has identified four momentum industry verticals: 1) BFSI, 2) energy & utilities,
3) retail and 4) lifesciences and healthcare; these verticals account for 65% of the
company's revenue. The Managements of all its peer companies have indicated
that IT spend in industry verticals such as retail and energy & utilities is expected to
grow higher than the overall industry growth and Wipro's exposure to energy &
utilities is ~100% higher than the next largest competitor in this space (Infosys). We
expect USD and INR revenue CAGR for IT services to be at 9% and 16%, respectively
over FY2013-15E.
Wipro has operating margin levers such as improving utilization level and increasing
offshore revenue. Wipro's utilization level is currently at at 66.1%, which is nearer
to its historic low levels. The company has headroom to improve its utilization by
~500bp even if the Management does not want to run a tight ship.
The portfolio of top-10 client accounts has seen a change at Wipro (with only
2 hi-tech/telecom clients within the top-10 client roster vs 4-5 clients from the
hi-tech/telecom segment earlier). W W W W W e value the stock at 15.5x FY2015E EPS ofe value the stock at 15.5x FY2015E EPS ofe value the stock at 15.5x FY2015E EPS ofe value the stock at 15.5x FY2015E EPS ofe value the stock at 15.5x FY2015E EPS of ` ` ` ` ` 36.5, which gives us a target price of36.5, which gives us a target price of36.5, which gives us a target price of36.5, which gives us a target price of36.5, which gives us a target price of ` ` ` ` ` 567 and recommend it as one of our top567 and recommend it as one of our top567 and recommend it as one of our top567 and recommend it as one of our top567 and recommend it as one of our top
picks with a Buy ratingpicks with a Buy ratingpicks with a Buy ratingpicks with a Buy ratingpicks with a Buy rating.....
Wipro (CMP: ` 492/ TP: ` 567/ Upside: 15%)
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 44,029 22.8 7,781 31.5 22.5 15.6 3.6 10.1 2.3
FY2015E 49,961 23.5 9,020 36.5 21.6 13.5 2.9 8.0 1.9
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Market Strategy
Diwali Special
Axis Bank has aggressively expanded its branch network at around 30% CAGR
over the past ten years (~2,250 branches now), which has not only aided the bank
in steadily growing its retail liabilities profile (CASA ratio stands at ~43% and
share of domestic CASA & retail deposits to total deposits at 73%), but has also laid
a strong platform for building up a sustainable retail assets portfolio (share of
retail advances to total advances at 30%).
Axis Bank has been able to sustain its healthy growth on the non-interest income
front and maintain the fee income contribution at a meaningful 1.9% of total assets.
Axis Bank's tier-I ratio stood at 12.8% as of 2QFY2014, which gives it enough headroom
for credit growth for the next three years. We expect the Management to meet its
guidance of above-industry average loan growth and improve its credit market share.
Notwithstanding moderate concerns on its corporate book asset quality, we expect
the retail business to drive earnings at a healthy CAGR of 19.2% over
FY2013-15E. In our view, the current valuations at 1.3x FY2015 ABV are below
our longer term fair value estimates. In the near term, given the weak macro
environment and cautious outlook for the sector, stocks such as Axis Bank may
undershoot fair value estimates, but from a relative point-of-view compared to
peers, it remains one of the preferred banks, in our view, from a medium term
perspective. W W W W W e maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price ofe maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price ofe maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price ofe maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price ofe maintain our Buy recommendation, with a target price of ` ` ` ` ` 1,392.1,392.1,392.1,392.1,392.
Axis Bank (CMP: ` 1,210/ TP: ` 1,392/ Upside: 15%)
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E Op Inc.Op Inc.Op Inc.Op Inc.Op Inc. NIMNIMNIMNIMNIM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS AB AB AB AB AB V V V V V RoA RoA RoA RoA RoA RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/ABP/ABP/ABP/ABP/AB V V V V V
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 19,329 3.4 6,048 129.2 802.5 1.6 17.1 9.4 1.5
FY2015E 22,724 3.4 7,368 157.5 922.0 1.7 18.1 7.7 1.3
For Hindustan Zinc (HZL), we expect zinc-lead/ silver volumes to grow at a CAGR
of 5.8%/6.2% over FY2013-15. Also, HZL is expanding its mining capacity at the
Kayar mine, which has 11mn tonne of high-grade reserves. The company expects to
increase its capacity from 1.0mn tonne to 5.0mn tonne over the coming five years. At current levels of ~US$1,900/tonne, zinc prices stand near marginal cost of
production for several zinc producers globally. Hence, we believe that the probability
of a further decline in zinc prices from the current levels remains muted. Further, over
the next 3-5 years, several zinc mines are expected to be exhausted; hence, production
is likely to suffer. This should support zinc prices over the medium term in our view.
With net cash of ` 23,632cr as on September 30, 2013, the company continues to
explore new reserves. Its reserves and resources have increased to 348mn tonne as on
March 31, 2013, compared to 210mn tonne as on March 31, 2007, indicating that
HZL has added more reserves and resources than it has mined during the same period.
The stock is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 4.6x FY2014E and
3.6x FY2015E EV/EBITDA. On a P/B basis, the stock trades at 1.5x FY2014E and
1.3x FY2015E. W W W W W e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.
Hindustan Zinc (CMP: ` 135/ TP: ` 156/ Upside: 16%)
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 12,964 49.9 6,503 15.2 18.5 8.8 1.5 4.6 2.3
FY2015E 13,537 52.0 7,034 16.6 17.6 8.1 1.3 3.6 1.9
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Diwali Special
Tata Steel (CMP: ` 335/ TP: ` 390/ Upside:16%)
Tata Steel completed its 2.9mn-tonne expansion program at the Jamshedpur plant
during FY2013. We expect this expansion to contribute ~ ` 2,000cr per annum to
the company's consolidated EBITDA as the new plant reaches optimum utilization
over the coming two years.
Tata Steel is in the process of restructuring its European operations. Over the past
two quarters, its European operations have shown better-than-expected improvement
in operating profit. Going forward, we expect European operations to continue to
improve on the profitability front, which have been dragging down the company's
consolidated profits in the past.
Tata Steel is setting up a 6mn-tonne integrated steel plant (including cold rolling
mill) in two phases of 3mn tonne each for a capex of ` 34,500cr. Phase 1 of the3mn-tonne plant is expected to be completed by FY2015. This project is expected
to have high returns on invested capital as it would be backed by captive iron ore.
The stock is currently trading at an inexpensive valuation of 5.8x FY2014E and
5.2x FY2015E EV/EBITDA. On a P/B basis, the stock trades at 0.9x FY2014E and
0.8x FY2015E. W W W W W e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.e maintain a Buy on the stock.
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 153,835 9.0 3,325 34.2 9.5 9.8 0.9 5.8 0.5
FY2015E 165,673 9.7 3,846 39.6 10.1 8.5 0.8 5.2 0.5
For Cipla, exports contributed 53% to the total turnover of FY2013, with Africa, US
and Latin America constituting more than 60% of total exports. In the US, Cipla has
entered into a partnership with more than 22 players and has a strong product
pipeline of ANDAs, of which 47 have been launched, out of the 76 approved. Withthe Medpro acquisition, the company now has a front end in the fast growing
African market.
Cipla is one of the largest players in the domestic formulation market, with a
market share of around 5%, contributing 47% to the total turnover in FY2013.
Cipla's distribution network in India consists of a field force of around 7,500
employees. The company plans to focus on growing its market share and sales by
increasing penetration in the Indian market, especially in rural areas, and plans to
expand its product portfolio by launching biosimilars, particularly relating to the
oncology, anti-asthmatic and anti-arthritis categories.
For FY2014, the Management has given a revenue growth guidance of 14-15%
(excluding Medpro). We expect the company's net sales to post a 15.5% CAGR to
` 10,796cr and EPS to record a 12.1% CAGR to ` 23.9 over FY2013-15E.
Cipla (CMP: ` 423/ TP: ` 504/ Upside: 19%)
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 9,274 23.1 1,685 21.0 17.2 20.2 3.2 15.7 3.4
FY2015E 10,796 23.1 1,916 23.9 16.8 17.8 2.8 13.1 2.8
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Market Strategy
Diwali Special
Cadila (CMP: ` 660/ TP: ` 894/ Upside: 35%)
Cadila is the fifth largest player in the domestic market. The company's domestic sales,
at ` 2,987cr in FY2013, accounted for ~48% to its overall top-line. The company
enjoys a leadership position in the CVS, GI, women's healthcare and respiratory
segments, and has a sales force of 4,500 MRs. Going forward, the company expects
these segments to grow at above-industry rate on the back of new product launches
and field force expansion. While FY2014 sales would be lower, however FY2015 should
witness a strong sales growth.
Cadila has a two-fold focus on exports, wherein it is targeting developed as well as
emerging markets, which contributed around 53% to its FY2013 top-line. The company
has developed a formidable presence in the developed markets of US, Europe (France
and Spain) and Japan. In the US, the company achieved a critical scale of ` 1,500cr on
the sales front in FY2013. The company's exports growth to the US market will be
subdued in FY2014, on back of lack of new products along with price erosion among
its key products and with just 5-8 approvals. However, in FY2015, the region is expected
to post a growth of 20% on back of 20 approvals.
We expect Cadila's net sales to post a 16.6% CAGR to ` 8,367cr and EPS to report an
18.1% CAGR to ` 44.7 over FY2013-15E. While the growth momentum has slowed
down, the stock has corrected significantly, making it attractive.
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 7,123 15.5 765 37.3 22.9 17.7 3.7 14.0 2.2
FY2015E 8,367 15.7 915 44.7 22.9 14.8 3.1 11.7 1.9
United Phosporus (CMP: ` 154/ TP: ` 225/ Upside: 46%)
United Phosphorus (UPL) figures among the top five generic agrichemical players
in the world, with a presence across major markets such as the US, EU, Latin
America and India.
The global agrichem industry, valued at ~US$45bn (CY2012E), is dominated by
the top six innovators, viz Bayer, Syngenta, Monsanto, BASF, DuPont and Dow,
which enjoy a large market share of the patented (28%) and off-patent (32%)
market, while in generic, the top-5 companies occupy 61% of market share (of the
40% off-patent market). In fact, from an overall market perspective, the top
11 players control 84% of the total agrichemical market. This is due to high entry
barriers by way of investments required for product registration and to set up
manufacturing facilities. Thus, one-third of the total pie worth ~US$15bn, which is
controlled by the top six innovators through proprietary off-patent products, provides
a high-growth opportunity for larger integrated generic players such as UPL.
Moreover, as we go forward, around US$7bn worth of products would be going
off-patent in the next 2-3 years, augmenting the overall growth opportunity for
generic players like UPL.
We estimate UPL to post a 12.0% and 15.0% CAGR in sales and PAT, respectively,
over FY2013-15. The stock is trading at an attractive valuation of 6.8x FY2015E EPS.
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
SeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptemberSeptember ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 10,091 16.5 850 19.2 17.0 8.0 1.3 4.8 0.8
FY2015E 11,302 16.5 998 22.5 17.2 6.8 1.1 4.0 0.7
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Market Strategy
Diwali Special
Crompton Greaves (CG) is among the leading players in the power transmission &
distribution equipment business. It is a globally diversified company, deriving more
than 50% of its order backlog from international operations as of FY2013.
The underperformance of the stock in the last few years can be attributed to intense
competition in the domestic market, slowdown in European market and restructuring
of the Belgium plant which led to execution delays and margin contraction. However,
we are of the opinion that CG's margins have bottomed out in FY2013 and expect
operating margin to gradually improve over the next 12 months, partly due to
expected recovery of margin in overseas business (aided by cost savings on account
of restructuring of Belgium operations and transfer of orders to Hungary plant).
Given the attractive valuations (stock trading at 0.5x FY2015E EV/Sales compared
to its trading range of 0.5x to 1.5x and median of 0.9x), we maintain our positive
stance on the company. We have assigned an EV/Sales multiple of 0.7x to arrive at
a target price of ` 115, implying an upside of 17% from the current levels.
Crompton Greaves (CMP: ` 98/ TP: ` 115/ Upside:17%)
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A TTTTT EPSEPSEPSEPSEPS RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 13,272 5.7 360 5.6 9.8 17.5 1.6 9.9 0.6
FY2015E 14,982 6.7 514 8.0 12.8 12.3 1.5 7.8 0.5
Aurobindo Pharma (CMP: ` 216/ TP: ` 271/ Upside:25%)
Aurobindo Pharma (APL) has increased its filing (ANDAs and dossiers) dramatically
from 313 in FY2008 to 1,647 in FY2013, as it proposes to scale up from SSP and
Cephs to NPNC products. APL has entered into long-term supply agreements with
Pfizer (March 2009) and AstraZeneca (September 2010), which provide significantrevenue visibility going ahead. APL is also in discussion with other MNCs for more
supply agreements.
APL's business, excluding the supply agreements, would primarily be driven by the
US and ARV segments on the formulation front. The company has been an aggressive
filer in the US market, with 281 ANDAs filed until 1QFY2014. Amongst peers, APL
has emerged as one of the top ANDA filers. APL expects to file 15-20 ANDAs every
year going forward.
We estimate net sales to log a 14.9% CAGR to ` 7,637cr over FY2013-15E on the
back of supply agreements in the US and ARV formulation contracts. Even after
factoring in lower profitability going forward, the stock trades at an attractivevaluation.
Y/EY/EY/EY/EY/E SalesSalesSalesSalesSales OPMOPMOPMOPMOPM PPPPP A A A A A T*T*T*T*T* EPS*EPS*EPS*EPS*EPS* RoERoERoERoERoE P/EP/EP/EP/EP/E P/BP/BP/BP/BP/B V V V V V EV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITDEV/EBITD A A A A A EV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/SalesEV/Sales
MarchMarchMarchMarchMarch ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) (%)(%)(%)(%)(%) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` cr)cr)cr)cr)cr) ((((( ` ` ` ` ` ))))) (((((%%%%%))))) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x) (x)(x)(x)(x)(x)
FY2014E 6,641 15.9 504 17.3 19.5 12.5 2.0 8.8 1.4
FY2015E 7,637 15.9 601 20.6 18.9 10.5 1.7 7.5 1.2
Note: * Recurring numbers
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Market Strategy
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Stock Watch
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Market Strategy
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Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to -15%) Sell (< -15%)
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