Post on 29-Nov-2014
description
MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho
Wait Ο
Respond/React Ο
Predict Ο
Anticipate Ο Explore Ο
Imagine Ο
Design / Create Ο
Decide Ο Act Ο
Other Ο
WHAT’S THE USE OF THE FUTURE?
Making Decisions in Turbulent and
Uncertain Environments
4
“The Long View”
5
Peripheral Vision
6 Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
Sense Making
7 Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.
8
Multiple Perspectives
9
Global & Systemic
View
System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.
10
Creativity
and
Imagination
IDEO (from Wired)
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MEGATRENDS
12
Megatrends
Global Forces
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY
CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD
NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS
URBANISATION
DIGITAL LIFESTYLE
GLOBALISATION 2 . 0
CULTURAL DIVERSITY
NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER
UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE-BASED
ECONOMY
HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING
GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE
BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS
ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL
CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE
WOMEN ON THE RISE
WATER CHALLENGES
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TRENDS
www.trendwatching.com
Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies
Fonte: MGI.
Weak Signals
17
Thinking the
Unthinkable
Wildcards
18
UNCERTAINTY
TrendTaylo rs
Scanning and Exploring Change
DEMOGRAPHIC
CHANGE
• Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries
• Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries
• Increasing migration streams
• Demographic shifts
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
WORLD
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
EUROPE
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
SOUTH EUROPE
1. General Population:
Sustainability of the Pensions
System.
2. Active Population:
Capability to anticipate and lead
the new technological waves.
3. Older Population (+80):
Strong pressure on the
healthcare system (financial and
human resources)
4. …
1
2
3
PORTUGAL - A TRIPLE AGEING
PORTUGAL
ECONOMIC
PROFILE
PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE
(Mainly Public Offer/Services)
(External demand)
Globalization
Budgetary Pressure
Non-market services
Goods and services little
marketable internationally
(Targeted to Domestic Demand)
Goods and services that are the subject of
intense International Trade / Competition
• More “weight “ • Greater diversity • More Knowledge and Innovation
Services Vs. Industries
• More Competition • Lower “Rents” • Stronger link to the Economy and
International Competition
Portugal as an INTERNACIONAL HUB for MNCs, SMEs and Startups + Global Activities and Functions (Logistics, air and maritime transport, “Space”, …)
CITIES
•MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS
•THINK –ACT
•ORGANIC
•ECOSYSTEMS
•MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION
•LABS
URBAN TRENDS
3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL
MANUFACTURING (Fab Lab)
ACTIVIST CITIZEN (Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..))
GENTRIFICATION
CITY APPS/URBAN DATA (Open Data; Lisbon Big Apps; SDK)
…
NATURE OF WORK (Coworking; Incubation;
Acceleration - ITC/Web/…)
HACKING THE CITY (Fab Lab; Alt Lab)
INTUITION
COLLABORATIVE URBAN
MAPPING (New startups exploring this)
CROWDSOURCING
CROWDFUNDING
(Lisbon Crowdfunding Platform)
Platform)…
HAPPY CITY
MAKER MOVEMENT (Fab Lab; Printoo; City as the “Place”
of the Internet of Things)
BOTTOM-UP URBAN
ENGAGMENT (Mouraria; …)
CUSTOMIZATION + ON
DEMAND SERVICES
HYBRIDITY
NEW MOBIITY SOLUTIONS (EVs; soft …)
AGEING +
INTERGENERATIONAL
INTERACTION
(Mentoring; Envlhecimento)
DATA VISUALIZATION
(Using Big Data Trends/Insights)
DEPARTMENT OF LISTENING
(Participatory Budget)
DESIGN BARRIERS FOOD DISTRIBUTION
OPEN-SOURCE (Open Data; OP)
PARTICIPATORY URBANISM (OP Startup Lisboa)
WEARABLES NON-ICONIC ARCHITECTURE (Urban/Street Art; LX Factory;
Desterro; Trienal no Palácio; …)
RESPONSIVE
INFRASTRUCTURE
RETROFITTING
INFRASTRUCTURE
SMART CITY / SENSORS/ (Smart City Projects)
RAPID PROTOTYPING (Fab Lab)
TEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE (Containers; Parks; …)
ENERGY STORAGE + SMART
GRIDS (SOLAR CITY)
AUGENTED REALITY (AR)
APPS
SHARE CULTURE / SHARE
ECONOMY
STARTUPS ECOSYSTEMS IN A
FAST CHANGING PACE (Lisbon Startup Ecosystem)
SUSTAINABILITY (Mobility; Buildings;
SOLAR CITY…)
NEW USES FOR BUILDINGS (LX Factory; Village Underground;
Desterro; Fab Lab Forn Tijolo; Mercado Ribeira; Central Station; Startup Lisboa; …)
BIG DATA
CLOUD COMPUTING
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Crowdfunding
Lisboa
Thank You paulo.s.carvalho@cm-lisboa.pt