MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE

MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE Paulo Soeiro de Carvalho

Wait Ο

Respond/React Ο

Predict Ο

Anticipate Ο Explore Ο

Imagine Ο

Design / Create Ο

Decide Ο Act Ο

Other Ο

WHAT’S THE USE OF THE FUTURE?

Making Decisions in Turbulent and

Uncertain Environments

4

“The Long View”

5

Peripheral Vision

6 Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.

Sense Making

7 Fonte: Day, Schoemaker, 2006.

8

Multiple Perspectives

9

Global & Systemic

View

System Dynamics Lab, Virginia Lab, USA.

10

Creativity

and

Imagination

IDEO (from Wired)

11

MEGATRENDS

12

Megatrends

Global Forces

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE NEW PATTERNS OF MOBILITY

CHANGES IN THE WORK WORLD

NEW CONSUMPTION PATTERNS

URBANISATION

DIGITAL LIFESTYLE

GLOBALISATION 2 . 0

CULTURAL DIVERSITY

NEW POLITICALWORLD ORDER

UBIQUITOUS INTELLIGENCE KNOWLEDGE-BASED

ECONOMY

HEALTH AND WELLBEING RISE AND CONVERGING

GROWING THREATS TO INTERNATIONAL SECURITY

TECHNOLOGY CONVERGENCE

BUSINESS ECOSYSTEMS

ENERGY AND RESOURCE REVERSAL

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

INDIVIDUALISATION REACHES A NEW STAGE

WOMEN ON THE RISE

WATER CHALLENGES

13

TRENDS

www.trendwatching.com

Twelve Potentially Disruptive Technologies

Fonte: MGI.

Weak Signals

17

Thinking the

Unthinkable

Wildcards

18

UNCERTAINTY

TrendTaylo rs

Scanning and Exploring Change


http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=5mjIUk3sc0URkM&tbnid=hoSn8ycit72w6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailymotion.com%2Fvideo%2Fxp08y9_evolution-of-the-cleantech-ecosystem-by-quid-inc_tech&ei=A7jmUqevAceV0AWunoCoBQ&bvm=bv.59930103,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGIvnbNEY6S6Wy1TXgIptRa1AUNjg&ust=1390937956769638


http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=itvn0AIGPVhTVM&tbnid=ig91L7J5x0yLFM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ayasdi.com%2Fblog%2Foffice-of-the-cdo%2Fthehumanbrain&ei=3bjmUqHHDOSr0QXm94HIBQ&bvm=bv.59930103,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNFQdUMGrh2IfqbN_FsBJ8GK3WTq3A&ust=1390938699572843


http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=xmd2emZhPyjoVM&tbnid=HoW8lWQtfve5yM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fgigaom.com%2F2013%2F01%2F16%2Fhas-ayasdi-turned-machine-learning-into-a-magic-bullet%2F&ei=DLnmUv3eCoGw0QWz8IGQCQ&bvm=bv.59930103,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNFQdUMGrh2IfqbN_FsBJ8GK3WTq3A&ust=1390938699572843

DEMOGRAPHIC

CHANGE

• Ageing and shrinking populations in Developed Countries

• Growing Population and baby boom in some Developing Countries

• Increasing migration streams

• Demographic shifts

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

WORLD

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

EUROPE

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE

SOUTH EUROPE

1. General Population:

Sustainability of the Pensions

System.

2. Active Population:

Capability to anticipate and lead

the new technological waves.

3. Older Population (+80):

Strong pressure on the

healthcare system (financial and

human resources)

4. …

1

2

3

PORTUGAL - A TRIPLE AGEING

PORTUGAL

ECONOMIC

PROFILE

PORTUGAL – ECONOMIC PROFILE

(Mainly Public Offer/Services)

(External demand)

Globalization

Budgetary Pressure

Non-market services

Goods and services little

marketable internationally

(Targeted to Domestic Demand)

Goods and services that are the subject of

intense International Trade / Competition

• More “weight “ • Greater diversity • More Knowledge and Innovation

Services Vs. Industries

• More Competition • Lower “Rents” • Stronger link to the Economy and

International Competition

Portugal as an INTERNACIONAL HUB for MNCs, SMEs and Startups + Global Activities and Functions (Logistics, air and maritime transport, “Space”, …)

CITIES

•MULTIPLE TIME HORIZONS

•THINK –ACT

•ORGANIC

•ECOSYSTEMS

•MELTING POT FOR INNOVATION

•LABS

http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=vuWjo14ym2PZFM&tbnid=GAPo-RcLoqtEWM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.jovoto.com/blog/2008/11/creative-city-berlin-%E2%80%93-jury-is-set/&ei=e12mUfmBHq620QWUg4DACw&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNFczWD96JxRjO06IcFmPnoWKkpxRA&ust=1369943786890446

http://www.sfartscommission.org/home.htm

http://www.merseysideacme.com/default.asp

http://www.cidadedesaopaulo.com/

http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=64O9lCbvtq_HVM&tbnid=WYCSHUdBuVo0hM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.whitespace.hk/design/creative-city-x-show-us-your-type-hong-kong/&ei=tF2mUbXjCbCN0wXakICIDg&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGR50ij7viKz0C9a8gECIJ8yCqKug&ust=1369943844180831

http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=1bu6imbvfaZ1eM&tbnid=g01y_PJ9imOIrM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.creativecapetown.net/creative-cape-town-2010-connecting-the-city/&ei=6V2mUdK9CevM0AWetYG4CQ&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGR50ij7viKz0C9a8gECIJ8yCqKug&ust=1369943844180831

https://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=QZAl6BSB7wue8M&tbnid=UKg7Nvy2JzixEM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=https://twitter.com/CreativeCitiyRJ&ei=GV6mUZvbM_H20gWQ9IF4&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGR50ij7viKz0C9a8gECIJ8yCqKug&ust=1369943844180831

http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=FhvhL5osI9ZPzM&tbnid=-v5kqVTuHcXWfM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.unesco.org/new/en/culture/themes/creativity/creative-industries/creative-cities-network/design/seoul/&ei=Zl6mUZ6CN5Ca0QW9r4CYDQ&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGR50ij7viKz0C9a8gECIJ8yCqKug&ust=1369943844180831

http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=4B2PDWBBhsWIlM&tbnid=wc8CeaEiE7JwJM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.unesco.org/new/en/culture/themes/creativity/creative-industries/creative-cities-network/crafts-and-folk-art/santa-fe/&ei=oF6mUaPOGqWX1AWGw4CoBg&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGR50ij7viKz0C9a8gECIJ8yCqKug&ust=1369943844180831

http://www.liverpoolcitybrand.co.uk/

http://www.google.pt/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=zjk95-9g64_2MM&tbnid=4qlnp-khVRg4NM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.createdinbirmingham.com/2007/04/12/the-creative-city-awards/&ei=8V6mUbL9EeX40gX12YFw&bvm=bv.47008514,d.ZGU&psig=AFQjCNGR50ij7viKz0C9a8gECIJ8yCqKug&ust=1369943844180831

URBAN TRENDS

3-D PRINTER + PERSONAL

MANUFACTURING (Fab Lab)

ACTIVIST CITIZEN (Participatory Budget; Wi Fi; ..))

GENTRIFICATION

CITY APPS/URBAN DATA (Open Data; Lisbon Big Apps; SDK)

…

NATURE OF WORK (Coworking; Incubation;

Acceleration - ITC/Web/…)

HACKING THE CITY (Fab Lab; Alt Lab)

INTUITION

COLLABORATIVE URBAN

MAPPING (New startups exploring this)

CROWDSOURCING

CROWDFUNDING

(Lisbon Crowdfunding Platform)

Platform)…

HAPPY CITY

MAKER MOVEMENT (Fab Lab; Printoo; City as the “Place”

of the Internet of Things)

BOTTOM-UP URBAN

ENGAGMENT (Mouraria; …)

CUSTOMIZATION + ON

DEMAND SERVICES

HYBRIDITY

NEW MOBIITY SOLUTIONS (EVs; soft …)

AGEING +

INTERGENERATIONAL

INTERACTION

(Mentoring; Envlhecimento)

DATA VISUALIZATION

(Using Big Data Trends/Insights)

DEPARTMENT OF LISTENING

(Participatory Budget)

DESIGN BARRIERS FOOD DISTRIBUTION

OPEN-SOURCE (Open Data; OP)

PARTICIPATORY URBANISM (OP Startup Lisboa)

WEARABLES NON-ICONIC ARCHITECTURE (Urban/Street Art; LX Factory;

Desterro; Trienal no Palácio; …)

RESPONSIVE

INFRASTRUCTURE

RETROFITTING

INFRASTRUCTURE

SMART CITY / SENSORS/ (Smart City Projects)

RAPID PROTOTYPING (Fab Lab)

TEMPORARY ARCHITECTURE (Containers; Parks; …)

ENERGY STORAGE + SMART

GRIDS (SOLAR CITY)

AUGENTED REALITY (AR)

APPS

SHARE CULTURE / SHARE

ECONOMY

STARTUPS ECOSYSTEMS IN A

FAST CHANGING PACE (Lisbon Startup Ecosystem)

SUSTAINABILITY (Mobility; Buildings;

SOLAR CITY…)

NEW USES FOR BUILDINGS (LX Factory; Village Underground;

Desterro; Fab Lab Forn Tijolo; Mercado Ribeira; Central Station; Startup Lisboa; …)

BIG DATA

CLOUD COMPUTING

33

Crowdfunding

Lisboa

Thank You [email protected]

MAKING SENSE OF THE FUTURE

Business

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