Post on 11-Mar-2018
Information Integration for Managing Food Security
Professor Paul PS Teng
Dean, Graduate Programs & Research, NIE Snr. Fellow, S Rajaratnam School of International
Studies (RSIS), NTU Singapore Vice-Chair, International Service for Acquisition of
AgriBiotechnology Applications (ISAAA)Chair, Asia BioBusiness Pte. Ltd.
6/9/2010
1
Information Integration for
Managing Food Security
Professor Paul PS Teng
Dean, Graduate Programs & Research, NIE
Snr. Fellow, S Rajaratnam School of International
Studies (RSIS), NTU, Singapore
Vice-Chair, International Service for Acquisition of
AgriBiotechnology Applications (ISAAA)
Chair, Asia BioBusiness Pte. Ltd.
Scope
1. Food Security – Conceptual Framing of Information Needs
2. Current status of information, information systems and the need for an integrated approach
3. Leveling up from information to information management for planning and early warning
4. Relevance to AIFS Framework
6/9/2010
2
Food Supply
Production
Imports
Stockpiles
Demand for
FoodResident versus
Transient poplt.
Distribution
Animal
FeedBiofuel
CROPS &
ANIMALS(Primary
Production)
Sunshine Land Water
Labor
Inputs
Global Changes
•Climate
•Demographics
•Ageing farmers
•Fewer farmers
Local Changes
•Land loss
Science & Technology
•First Green Revolution
•Biotech Revolution
•Knowledge Tech Revlt.
Negative Externalities
•Pesticide pollution
•Eutrophication
•Biodiversity loss
Human demographics
•Population increases
•Diet changes, esp. protein
•Lifestyle changes
Processing &
Distribution Losses
Other
uses
Political imperatives
Policy
Technology/Logistics
Poultry
Mammals
Fishaquaculture
“capture”
Natural
Ecosystems
© Paul PS Teng, 2010
Wild plants &
animals
Food safety
Fo
od
safe
ty
Biowaste
Food Security Conceptual Framework
1. Food Security – Conceptual Framing of Information Needs
“Capture”
• Production Capacity (Sources)– Crop (Animal/fish) type/Area/Production
– Pre-Harvest Losses
• Biotic (Insect Pests, Diseases, Weeds)
• Abiotic (Typhoons, Earthquakes, Drought, Flooding)
– Post-Harvest Losses
• Food Supply– Food availability
• Surplus of production
• Stockpiles
• Imports
– Food Diversion
• Biofuel Feedstock
• Animal Feed
• Pharmaceutical and Industrial Uses
• Demand– Resident Population
– Transient Population
Primary Information Needs to support decision making in food Security
6/9/2010
3
• Linked Information to Production Capacity
– Fertilizer use, pricing and supply
– Land and Water use patterns
– Soil and weather databases
– Farm labor demographics
– R&D Pipeline on production technologies
• Linked Information to Food Supply
– Food storage, processing and distribution
– Extra-ASEAN supply statistics on major food items
– Agri-Business companies (production,processing, etc)
– Wild catches
• Linked Information to Demand
– Population census data disaggregated (urban/rural)
– Policy inventory
Secondary Information Needs to support decision making in Food Security
AFS IS
Expressed intentions of AFS IS (abbreviated)
• Conduct food security assessment and identify underlying
causes of food insecurity
• Collect, share information on supply and demand/utilization of
main food commodities, and maintain food security related
baseline data for each member state in a regional database
• Develop an early warning, monitoring and surveillance
information system for planning and decision making
Current
Preferred
(Goal)
Relevant
Responsive
Reliable
2. Current status of information, information systems and the need for
an integrated approach
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Relevant Databases for Guiding Food Security
Supporting databases
• Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• World Resources Institute (WRI)
• World Food Program
• International Benchmark Sites Network for AgroTechnology
Transfer (IBSNAT) Soil databases
• National databases (Statistics Departments, etc.)
• USDA Foreign Agricultural Service
• Others
The ASEAN Food Security Information System
(AFSIS) Project
• Agricultural Commodity Outlook (ACO) Report semi-annually.
• The contents of the Report include national and regional information on production, utilization, stock, trade and FOB prices. The explanation for significant changes and unusual phenomena were also provided in the Report.
• The first and the second Reports, which focused only on rice, were issued in December 2008 and June 2009 respectively.
• This third Report include both rice and maize. The pertinent information was mainly gathered from Member States through the submission of respective National ACO Reports. The Report was scrutinized by the ACO Committee comprises national experts nominated from ASEAN Countries before publication.
• The Project planned to increase the number of commodities to be studied for the development of the ACO Report step by step to cover at least 5 major food crops namely rice, maize, soybean, sugarcane and cassava.
• From -- http://afsis.oae.go.th/ 15 April 2010
6/9/2010
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From:
http://afsis.oae.go.th/
15 April 2010
Maize production of selected countries in ASEAN, 2008-2010
Maize planted area of selected countries in ASEAN, 2008-2010
Ratio of maize production to domestic utilisation in ASEAN countries
Ratio of maize stock to domestic utilisation in ASEAN countries (Food security ratio)
From:
http://afsis.oae.go.th/
15 April 2010
6/9/2010
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Maize imports into ASEAN Countries
Region/Country 2005/2006, X1000MT 2009/2010, x1000MT
East Asia 29949 29180
JAPAN 16616 16300
S KOREA 8483 7800
TAIWAN 4533 4600
SouthEast Asia 4895 4330
MALAYSIA 2517 2500
THAILAND 119 500
VIETNAM 475 900
Secondary Related Information: Rural population as percent of total
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Soil degradation in south and southeast Asia
ASEAN: Agri-Food Trade Balances, 2007. US$B
-- R. Dy. 2009
Country Exports Imports Surplus (Deficit)
Indonesia 23.4 10.5 12.9
Malaysia 20.5 10.6 9.9
Thailand 25.0 8.4 16.6
Vietnam 11.7 6.1 5.6
Cambodia 0.1 0.3 (0.2)
Laos - - -
Myanmar - - -
Brunei * * *
Philippines 3.2 4.3 (1.1)
Singapore 6.0 8.3 (2.3)
ASEAN 89.9 53.2 36.7
WORLD 1128.o 1128.0
6/9/2010
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Crop Item 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Corn
(Maize)
Global Production
Million M T
714.0 696.0 698.0
Global Exports
Million M T
(% of global production)
76.0
(11%)
82.7
(12%)
84.4
(12%)
Asian Imports1
Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
35.5
(47%)
36.3
(44%)
43.3
(51%)
Rice
(Milled)
Global Production
Million M T
401.0 418.0 417.0
Global Exports
Million M T
(% of global production)
29.0
(7%)
28.5
(7%)
29.0
(7%)
Asian Imports2
Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
6.3
(22%)
6.2
(22%)
7.4
(25%)
Wheat Global Production
Million M T
629.0 622.0 594.0
Global Exports
Million M T
(% of global production)
112.0
(18%)
113.0
(18%)
110.0
(19%)
Asian Imports3
Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
22.4
(20%)
23.2
(21%)
28.8
(26%)
Soybean
(For Meal)
Global Production
Million M T
216.0 220.0 234.0
Global Exports
Million M T
(% of global production)
46.6
(22%)
51.3
(23%)
53.6
(23%)
Asian Imports4
Million MT
(% of Global Exports)
9.9
(21%)
12.1
(24%)
12.8
(24%)
Source: Table 1.4
Teng (2008)
Top ASEAN Agri-Food Companies. 2008
Company Sales Revenues, US$M
Wilmar International (SIN) 29,145
CP Group (THA) >18,000
Sime Darby (MAL) 10,250
Olam Intern. (SIN) 5,760
FELDA Holdings Bhd (MAL) 5,000
IOI Bhd (MAL) 4,400
IndoFood (IND) 4,060
San Miguel (PHI) 3,800
Golden Agri Resources (IND) 2,986
KLK (MAL) 2,245
Thai Union (THA) 2,069
RGM-Asian Agri (SIN) 2,000
SMART (IND) 1,660
Musim Mas (IND) 1,500
Asia Pacific Breweries (SIN) 1,410
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Congruence with A FS IS
Conduct food security assessment and identify underlying causes of food insecurity1. Theoretical framing: Concepts, Philosophy, Methodology
Collect, share information on supply and demand/utilization of main food commodities, and maintain food security related baseline data for each member state in a regional database
Develop an early warning, monitoring and surveillance information system for planning and decision making
2. Essential components of a Management Information System for Food Security
3. Possible Plan of Action
Space-Time Horizon
•Strategic – mid (5 yrs) to long term
•Immediate – short term
Features of Planning Package
•Location-specific “minimum data sets” on soil
And weather
•Systems models for crops
•Geographic Information System (GIS)
•Bioeconomic models: Decision-support and planning
From Information system (IS) to
Management Information system (MIS)
3. Leveling up from information to information management for planning and early warning
6/9/2010
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Threats to Food Security
Transitory
Permanent/Chronic
/”Normalized”
Food Insecurity
Natural Calamities
Policy Changes
Unseasonal Weather
Patterns
Supply Disruptions
Alternative Uses of Biomass
Low Investment in Agriculture
Poverty
Demographics
Climate Change
Policy Changes
Pest Crop Losses
Desecuritizing Actions
Emergency preparedness
measures
Risk Management
Diversification of supply
sources
Int’l consensus on biofuels
Social and safety nets
Desecuritizing Actions
Investments in technologies
and infrastructure
Open & fair trading system
Prioritization of agriculture
for development
Promotion of sustainable
agriculture
Supply
System
Stockpiles
Imports
Planning
Package
Supply
Forecasts
PMonitoring
PAnalysis of
past
performance
Comparison
of Actual
with
Forecast
Information System Boundary
FS IS
Management
Entity
Selected
Action
Plans
Theoretical framing: Conceptual Framework of a FS MIS
Features•System-based: Defined Boundaries•Feedback loops (cybernetics)•“Whole is more than the sum of parts”
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Theoretical Framing
• Based on “system approach”
• Conceptual Framework for Food Security
• FS Management Information system
• Food Security Planning Package
• Plan of Action
From Teng et al. 1997
Planning Package Structure
Crop
Model
Patch Minimum Data Set
Management (e.g. fertlizer use)
Environment (e.g. soil type, temperature)
Crop Genetics (e.g. Genetic Coefficients)
Site Predicted Crop
Performance
Historical
Performance
Area yield predictions
GIS
Regional Demand
Regional Supply
ACTION
OPTIONSDemographics
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Planning Tools & Techniques
Tools & Techniques
• Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer(DSSAT),
International consortium for Agricultural Systems Applications
(ICASA) Models
• IFPRI Global Supply-Demand Model (s) – IMPACT
• Others
The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is a software package integrating the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather and management options that allows users to ask "what if" questions and simulate results by conducting, in minutes on a desktop computer, experiments which would consume a significant part of an agronomist's career. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers in over 100 countries.
DSSAT is a microcomputer software product that combines crop, soil and weather data bases into standard formats for access by crop models and application programs.
The user can then simulate multi-year outcomes of crop management strategies for different crops at any location in the world.
http://www.icasa.net/dssat/
International Consortium for
Agricultural Systems
Applications
27 crop models
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IFPRI IMPACT MODEL
• Global Trends in Food Supply and Demand
• The IMPACT model is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. The IMPACT model allows IFPRI to provide both fundamental, global baseline projections of agricultural commodity supply, demand, trade, prices and malnutrition outcomes along with cutting-edge research results on quickly evolving topics such as bioenergy, climate change, changing diet/food preferences, and many other themes.
• IMPACT covers 30 commodities, which account for virtually all of world food production and consumption, including all cereals, soybeans, roots and tubers, meats, milk, eggs, oils, meals, vegetables, fruits, sugar and sweeteners, and fish in a partial equilibrium framework. It is specified as a set of 115 country-level supply and demand equations where each country model is linked to the rest of the world through trade.
• http://www.ifpri.org/book-751/ourwork/program/impact-model
Food Fish Demand,
1997 and Projected 2020
5
14
28
53
17
7
22
2933
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
China SE Asia India Other
Developing
Developed
1997 2020
(million mt)
From: Fish to 2020. Joint Study between IFPRI and WorldFishCentre
using IMPACT model. Released in 2003.
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• http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/J8104e/j8104e06.htm
• http://www.fao.org/giews/english/
GIEWSGlobal Information & Early Warning System on food and agriculture.Food & Agriculture Organization, United Nations
4. Relevance to AIFS Framework
ASEAN Integrated Food
Security (AIFS)
Component 1: Food Security
Emergency/ Shortage Relief
Strategic Thrust 1: Strengthen Food
Security Arrangements
Component 2: Sustainable Food
Trade Development
Strategic Thrust 2: Promote Conducive
Food Market 7 Trade
Component 3: Integrated Food
Security Informaton System
Strategic Thrust 3: Strengthen
Integrated Food Security Information
systems
Component 4: Agri-Innovation
Strategic Thrust 4: Promote sustainable food
production
Strategic Thrust 5: Encourage greater investment
in food and agro-based industry
Strategic Thrust 6: Identify and Address emerging
issues related to food security
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15
Food Security Indicators
• Food Consumption Score / measure of dietary diversity
– Cereals, Pulses, Vegetables, Meat/Fish/Dairy, etc
– Number of times consumed by HH in 7 days / one week
– What is the appropriate threshold score for each country ?
• Coping Strategy Index
– Which coping strategies are used ?
– Which indicate stress ? Taking loans ? Sale of HH assets?
– Which indicate severe stress ? Migration ? Begging
• Household expenditure on food as percentage of the total
– How to account for own production / barter / gifts ?
• Household Asset Score / Community Asset Score
– Which grouping of assets is proxy for food security / poverty ?
World Food Program, Bangkok
Food Supply
Production
Imports
Stockpiles
Demand for
FoodResident versus
Transient poplt.
Distribution
Animal
FeedBiofuel
CROPS &
ANIMALS(Primary
Production)
Sunshine Land Water
Labor
Inputs
Global Changes
•Climate
•Demographics
•Ageing farmers
•Fewer farmers
Local Changes
•Land lossScience & Technology
•First Green Revolution
•Biotech Revolution
•Knowledge Tech Revlt.
Negative Externalities
•Pesticide pollution
•Eutrophication
•Biodiversity loss
Human demographics
•Population increases
•Diet changes, esp. protein
•Lifestyle changes
Processing &
Distribution Losses
Other
uses
Political imperatives
Policy
Technology/Logistics
Poultry
Mammals
Fishaquaculture
“capture”
Natural
Ecosystems
© Paul PS Teng, 2010
Wild plants &
animals
Food safety
Fo
od
safe
ty
Biowaste
Food Security – Conceptual Framing of Information Needs
“Capture”
paul.teng@nie.edu.sg
6/9/2010
16
Link between Food Security, Securitization and Insecurity
FOODINSECURITY
Transitory/ Critical/ Acute
Normalized/Chronic
THREATS TOSECURITY
Policy changesConflictsPest OutbreaksNatural calamitiesUnseasonal weather
Climate ChangePest Crop LossesEnvironment-related
factors
SECURITIZATION
DESECURITIZE FOODSECURITY
PreparednessMitigation
Self Counter Action
Accurate information underpins decision-making!