Information Integration for Managing Food Security

Professor Paul PS Teng

Dean, Graduate Programs & Research, NIE Snr. Fellow, S Rajaratnam School of International

Studies (RSIS), NTU Singapore Vice-Chair, International Service for Acquisition of

AgriBiotechnology Applications (ISAAA)Chair, Asia BioBusiness Pte. Ltd.

6/9/2010

1

Information Integration for

Managing Food Security

Professor Paul PS Teng

Dean, Graduate Programs & Research, NIE

Snr. Fellow, S Rajaratnam School of International

Studies (RSIS), NTU, Singapore

Vice-Chair, International Service for Acquisition of

AgriBiotechnology Applications (ISAAA)

Chair, Asia BioBusiness Pte. Ltd.

Scope

1. Food Security – Conceptual Framing of Information Needs

2. Current status of information, information systems and the need for an integrated approach

3. Leveling up from information to information management for planning and early warning

4. Relevance to AIFS Framework

6/9/2010

2

Food Supply

Production

Imports

Stockpiles

Demand for

FoodResident versus

Transient poplt.

Distribution

Animal

FeedBiofuel

CROPS &

ANIMALS(Primary

Production)

Sunshine Land Water

Labor

Inputs

Global Changes

•Climate

•Demographics

•Ageing farmers

•Fewer farmers

Local Changes

•Land loss

Science & Technology

•First Green Revolution

•Biotech Revolution

•Knowledge Tech Revlt.

Negative Externalities

•Pesticide pollution

•Eutrophication

•Biodiversity loss

Human demographics

•Population increases

•Diet changes, esp. protein

•Lifestyle changes

Processing &

Distribution Losses

Other

uses

Political imperatives

Policy

Technology/Logistics

Poultry

Mammals

Fishaquaculture

“capture”

Natural

Ecosystems

© Paul PS Teng, 2010

Wild plants &

animals

Food safety

Fo

od

safe

ty

Biowaste

Food Security Conceptual Framework

1. Food Security – Conceptual Framing of Information Needs

“Capture”

• Production Capacity (Sources)– Crop (Animal/fish) type/Area/Production

– Pre-Harvest Losses

• Biotic (Insect Pests, Diseases, Weeds)

• Abiotic (Typhoons, Earthquakes, Drought, Flooding)

– Post-Harvest Losses

• Food Supply– Food availability

• Surplus of production

• Stockpiles

• Imports

– Food Diversion

• Biofuel Feedstock

• Animal Feed

• Pharmaceutical and Industrial Uses

• Demand– Resident Population

– Transient Population

Primary Information Needs to support decision making in food Security

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3

• Linked Information to Production Capacity

– Fertilizer use, pricing and supply

– Land and Water use patterns

– Soil and weather databases

– Farm labor demographics

– R&D Pipeline on production technologies

• Linked Information to Food Supply

– Food storage, processing and distribution

– Extra-ASEAN supply statistics on major food items

– Agri-Business companies (production,processing, etc)

– Wild catches

• Linked Information to Demand

– Population census data disaggregated (urban/rural)

– Policy inventory

Secondary Information Needs to support decision making in Food Security

AFS IS

Expressed intentions of AFS IS (abbreviated)

• Conduct food security assessment and identify underlying

causes of food insecurity

• Collect, share information on supply and demand/utilization of

main food commodities, and maintain food security related

baseline data for each member state in a regional database

• Develop an early warning, monitoring and surveillance

information system for planning and decision making

Current

Preferred

(Goal)

Relevant

Responsive

Reliable

2. Current status of information, information systems and the need for

an integrated approach

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Relevant Databases for Guiding Food Security

Supporting databases

• Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO)

• World Resources Institute (WRI)

• World Food Program

• International Benchmark Sites Network for AgroTechnology

Transfer (IBSNAT) Soil databases

• National databases (Statistics Departments, etc.)

• USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

• Others

The ASEAN Food Security Information System

(AFSIS) Project

• Agricultural Commodity Outlook (ACO) Report semi-annually.

• The contents of the Report include national and regional information on production, utilization, stock, trade and FOB prices. The explanation for significant changes and unusual phenomena were also provided in the Report.

• The first and the second Reports, which focused only on rice, were issued in December 2008 and June 2009 respectively.

• This third Report include both rice and maize. The pertinent information was mainly gathered from Member States through the submission of respective National ACO Reports. The Report was scrutinized by the ACO Committee comprises national experts nominated from ASEAN Countries before publication.

• The Project planned to increase the number of commodities to be studied for the development of the ACO Report step by step to cover at least 5 major food crops namely rice, maize, soybean, sugarcane and cassava.

• From -- http://afsis.oae.go.th/ 15 April 2010

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From:

http://afsis.oae.go.th/

15 April 2010

Maize production of selected countries in ASEAN, 2008-2010

Maize planted area of selected countries in ASEAN, 2008-2010

Ratio of maize production to domestic utilisation in ASEAN countries

Ratio of maize stock to domestic utilisation in ASEAN countries (Food security ratio)

From:

http://afsis.oae.go.th/

15 April 2010

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Maize imports into ASEAN Countries

Region/Country 2005/2006, X1000MT 2009/2010, x1000MT

East Asia 29949 29180

JAPAN 16616 16300

S KOREA 8483 7800

TAIWAN 4533 4600

SouthEast Asia 4895 4330

MALAYSIA 2517 2500

THAILAND 119 500

VIETNAM 475 900

Secondary Related Information: Rural population as percent of total

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Soil degradation in south and southeast Asia

ASEAN: Agri-Food Trade Balances, 2007. US$B

-- R. Dy. 2009

Country Exports Imports Surplus (Deficit)

Indonesia 23.4 10.5 12.9

Malaysia 20.5 10.6 9.9

Thailand 25.0 8.4 16.6

Vietnam 11.7 6.1 5.6

Cambodia 0.1 0.3 (0.2)

Laos - - -

Myanmar - - -

Brunei * * *

Philippines 3.2 4.3 (1.1)

Singapore 6.0 8.3 (2.3)

ASEAN 89.9 53.2 36.7

WORLD 1128.o 1128.0

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Crop Item 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07

Corn

(Maize)

Global Production

Million M T

714.0 696.0 698.0

Global Exports

Million M T

(% of global production)

76.0

(11%)

82.7

(12%)

84.4

(12%)

Asian Imports1

Million MT

(% of Global Exports)

35.5

(47%)

36.3

(44%)

43.3

(51%)

Rice

(Milled)

Global Production

Million M T

401.0 418.0 417.0

Global Exports

Million M T

(% of global production)

29.0

(7%)

28.5

(7%)

29.0

(7%)

Asian Imports2

Million MT

(% of Global Exports)

6.3

(22%)

6.2

(22%)

7.4

(25%)

Wheat Global Production

Million M T

629.0 622.0 594.0

Global Exports

Million M T

(% of global production)

112.0

(18%)

113.0

(18%)

110.0

(19%)

Asian Imports3

Million MT

(% of Global Exports)

22.4

(20%)

23.2

(21%)

28.8

(26%)

Soybean

(For Meal)

Global Production

Million M T

216.0 220.0 234.0

Global Exports

Million M T

(% of global production)

46.6

(22%)

51.3

(23%)

53.6

(23%)

Asian Imports4

Million MT

(% of Global Exports)

9.9

(21%)

12.1

(24%)

12.8

(24%)

Source: Table 1.4

Teng (2008)

Top ASEAN Agri-Food Companies. 2008

Company Sales Revenues, US$M

Wilmar International (SIN) 29,145

CP Group (THA) >18,000

Sime Darby (MAL) 10,250

Olam Intern. (SIN) 5,760

FELDA Holdings Bhd (MAL) 5,000

IOI Bhd (MAL) 4,400

IndoFood (IND) 4,060

San Miguel (PHI) 3,800

Golden Agri Resources (IND) 2,986

KLK (MAL) 2,245

Thai Union (THA) 2,069

RGM-Asian Agri (SIN) 2,000

SMART (IND) 1,660

Musim Mas (IND) 1,500

Asia Pacific Breweries (SIN) 1,410

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Congruence with A FS IS

Conduct food security assessment and identify underlying causes of food insecurity1. Theoretical framing: Concepts, Philosophy, Methodology

Collect, share information on supply and demand/utilization of main food commodities, and maintain food security related baseline data for each member state in a regional database

Develop an early warning, monitoring and surveillance information system for planning and decision making

2. Essential components of a Management Information System for Food Security

3. Possible Plan of Action

Space-Time Horizon

•Strategic – mid (5 yrs) to long term

•Immediate – short term

Features of Planning Package

•Location-specific “minimum data sets” on soil

And weather

•Systems models for crops

•Geographic Information System (GIS)

•Bioeconomic models: Decision-support and planning

From Information system (IS) to

Management Information system (MIS)

3. Leveling up from information to information management for planning and early warning

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Threats to Food Security

Transitory

Permanent/Chronic

/”Normalized”

Food Insecurity

Natural Calamities

Policy Changes

Unseasonal Weather

Patterns

Supply Disruptions

Alternative Uses of Biomass

Low Investment in Agriculture

Poverty

Demographics

Climate Change

Policy Changes

Pest Crop Losses

Desecuritizing Actions

Emergency preparedness

measures

Risk Management

Diversification of supply

sources

Int’l consensus on biofuels

Social and safety nets

Desecuritizing Actions

Investments in technologies

and infrastructure

Open & fair trading system

Prioritization of agriculture

for development

Promotion of sustainable

agriculture

Supply

System

Stockpiles

Imports

Planning

Package

Supply

Forecasts

PMonitoring

PAnalysis of

past

performance

Comparison

of Actual

with

Forecast

Information System Boundary

FS IS

Management

Entity

Selected

Action

Plans

Theoretical framing: Conceptual Framework of a FS MIS

Features•System-based: Defined Boundaries•Feedback loops (cybernetics)•“Whole is more than the sum of parts”

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Theoretical Framing

• Based on “system approach”

• Conceptual Framework for Food Security

• FS Management Information system

• Food Security Planning Package

• Plan of Action

From Teng et al. 1997

Planning Package Structure

Crop

Model

Patch Minimum Data Set

Management (e.g. fertlizer use)

Environment (e.g. soil type, temperature)

Crop Genetics (e.g. Genetic Coefficients)

Site Predicted Crop

Performance

Historical

Performance

Area yield predictions

GIS

Regional Demand

Regional Supply

ACTION

OPTIONSDemographics

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Planning Tools & Techniques

Tools & Techniques

• Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer(DSSAT),

International consortium for Agricultural Systems Applications

(ICASA) Models

• IFPRI Global Supply-Demand Model (s) – IMPACT

• Others

The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) is a software package integrating the effects of soil, crop phenotype, weather and management options that allows users to ask "what if" questions and simulate results by conducting, in minutes on a desktop computer, experiments which would consume a significant part of an agronomist's career. It has been in use for more than 15 years by researchers in over 100 countries.

DSSAT is a microcomputer software product that combines crop, soil and weather data bases into standard formats for access by crop models and application programs.

The user can then simulate multi-year outcomes of crop management strategies for different crops at any location in the world.

http://www.icasa.net/dssat/

International Consortium for

Agricultural Systems

Applications

27 crop models

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IFPRI IMPACT MODEL

• Global Trends in Food Supply and Demand

• The IMPACT model is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security. The IMPACT model allows IFPRI to provide both fundamental, global baseline projections of agricultural commodity supply, demand, trade, prices and malnutrition outcomes along with cutting-edge research results on quickly evolving topics such as bioenergy, climate change, changing diet/food preferences, and many other themes.

• IMPACT covers 30 commodities, which account for virtually all of world food production and consumption, including all cereals, soybeans, roots and tubers, meats, milk, eggs, oils, meals, vegetables, fruits, sugar and sweeteners, and fish in a partial equilibrium framework. It is specified as a set of 115 country-level supply and demand equations where each country model is linked to the rest of the world through trade.

• http://www.ifpri.org/book-751/ourwork/program/impact-model

Food Fish Demand,

1997 and Projected 2020

5

14

28

53

17

7

22

2933

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

China SE Asia India Other

Developing

Developed

1997 2020

(million mt)

From: Fish to 2020. Joint Study between IFPRI and WorldFishCentre

using IMPACT model. Released in 2003.

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• http://www.fao.org/docrep/009/J8104e/j8104e06.htm

• http://www.fao.org/giews/english/

GIEWSGlobal Information & Early Warning System on food and agriculture.Food & Agriculture Organization, United Nations

4. Relevance to AIFS Framework

ASEAN Integrated Food

Security (AIFS)

Component 1: Food Security

Emergency/ Shortage Relief

Strategic Thrust 1: Strengthen Food

Security Arrangements

Component 2: Sustainable Food

Trade Development

Strategic Thrust 2: Promote Conducive

Food Market 7 Trade

Component 3: Integrated Food

Security Informaton System

Strategic Thrust 3: Strengthen

Integrated Food Security Information

systems

Component 4: Agri-Innovation

Strategic Thrust 4: Promote sustainable food

production

Strategic Thrust 5: Encourage greater investment

in food and agro-based industry

Strategic Thrust 6: Identify and Address emerging

issues related to food security

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Food Security Indicators

• Food Consumption Score / measure of dietary diversity

– Cereals, Pulses, Vegetables, Meat/Fish/Dairy, etc

– Number of times consumed by HH in 7 days / one week

– What is the appropriate threshold score for each country ?

• Coping Strategy Index

– Which coping strategies are used ?

– Which indicate stress ? Taking loans ? Sale of HH assets?

– Which indicate severe stress ? Migration ? Begging

• Household expenditure on food as percentage of the total

– How to account for own production / barter / gifts ?

• Household Asset Score / Community Asset Score

– Which grouping of assets is proxy for food security / poverty ?

World Food Program, Bangkok

Food Supply

Production

Imports

Stockpiles

Demand for

FoodResident versus

Transient poplt.

Distribution

Animal

FeedBiofuel

CROPS &

ANIMALS(Primary

Production)

Sunshine Land Water

Labor

Inputs

Global Changes

•Climate

•Demographics

•Ageing farmers

•Fewer farmers

Local Changes

•Land lossScience & Technology

•First Green Revolution

•Biotech Revolution

•Knowledge Tech Revlt.

Negative Externalities

•Pesticide pollution

•Eutrophication

•Biodiversity loss

Human demographics

•Population increases

•Diet changes, esp. protein

•Lifestyle changes

Processing &

Distribution Losses

Other

uses

Political imperatives

Policy

Technology/Logistics

Poultry

Mammals

Fishaquaculture

“capture”

Natural

Ecosystems

© Paul PS Teng, 2010

Wild plants &

animals

Food safety

Fo

od

safe

ty

Biowaste

Food Security – Conceptual Framing of Information Needs

“Capture”

paul.teng@nie.edu.sg

6/9/2010

16

Link between Food Security, Securitization and Insecurity

FOODINSECURITY

Transitory/ Critical/ Acute

Normalized/Chronic

THREATS TOSECURITY

Policy changesConflictsPest OutbreaksNatural calamitiesUnseasonal weather

Climate ChangePest Crop LossesEnvironment-related

factors

SECURITIZATION

DESECURITIZE FOODSECURITY

PreparednessMitigation

Self Counter Action

Accurate information underpins decision-making!