Good morning

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Review and Business-of-the-Day

Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)

Boulder, Colorado

Jean-Claude GascardPierre Universitreg

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

I. Component presentations and discussion Wednesday a.m. and early p.m., plenum

II. Integration/synthesis presentations and discussion Wednesday p.m., plenum and groups

III. Gaps and needs – recommended steps discussion Thursday a.m., plenum

Agenda

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Individually:

DId you get something useful out of the meeting?

Learn something? Meet someone?

Plan something? Start something?

Measures of Success

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Individually:

DId you get something useful out of the meeting?

Learn something? Meet someone?

Plan something? Start something?

Collectively:

Will others – scientific community, agencies – get

something useful out of it?

Measures of Success

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

III. Lessons from 2007: Gaps and Needs for Understanding Arctic Change8:30 a.m. Welcome, review of Wednesday discussions, and today's goal

Martin Miles, ESARC Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie

9:00 a.m. Presentations and Discussion focused on:·        What lessons can be learned from 2007 to guide future science activities?·        What is needed in additional capacity and plans for observing the 2008 season (and beyond) to improve our understanding, and response strategies to arctic-system change? Specific needs relating back to the AON and Lagrangian workhops?

10:00 BREAK

10:30 a.m. Conclusions, recommendations, and next steps:·        Given the unexpected changes witnessed in 2007, what are the priorities for observing, understanding, and responding to change activities? ·        How should these priorities be addressed? What are the next steps? Discussion of workshop products (synthesis papers and other products), next steps, and writing assignments

Agenda

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Review and Charge

Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)

Boulder, Colorado martin.miles@esarc-colorado.org

1. Review of Sessions I and II

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Review and Charge

Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)

Boulder, Colorado martin.miles@esarc-colorado.org

1. Review of Session I – Component talks

Sea ice, atmosphere and ocean

Terrestrial and human

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Component-level data and understanding

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Component / sub-system

Sea-ice extent summer minimum

Sea-ice export and melt

Sea ice preconditioning (low

concentration, less MY vs. FY, ice thickness)

Lower troposphere – temp. and precip.

Atmospheric circulation

Clouds and aerosols (radiation)

Arctic Ocean – SST and heat content

Marine ecosystem (lower and higher-level)

Terrestrial ecosystem / vegetation / land-coverTerrestrial hydrology (rivers and lakes)

Greenland ice-sheet

Other terrestrial

Human response and other HD

Spatial

Temporal

Quant.

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Review and Charge

Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)

Boulder, Colorado martin.miles@esarc-colorado.org

1. Review of Session II – Synthesis / modeling

talks and discussions

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Related to goals for the workshop

Charge: Goals for today

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

1. Evaluate present knowledge

Observing

Understanding

Workshop Goals

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

2. Improve integration: cross-disciplinary andnational / international

Exchange information on ongoing research efforts

Identify strategy for cross-boundary collaborations

Workshop Goals

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

3. Produce an integrated overview of the summer 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for

continued decline or recovery

Observing

Understanding

Workshop Goals

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

4. Produce recommendations for addressing gaps in data and system understanding, to

guide near- and long-term science activities

Observing

Understanding

Responding

Workshop Goals

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

1. Produce recommendations for addressing gaps in data and system understanding, to

guide near- and long-term science activities – and strategy integration of efforts – to guide near- and long-term science activities

Gaps-and-needs discussion and subsequent efforts

Deliverable: Report

Outcomes and Deliverables

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

2. Produce an integrated overview of the summer 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for

continued decline or recovery

Component talks, synthesis and subsequent efforts

Deliverable: Synthesis paper(s); Forecast/projection

Outcomes and Deliverables

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

2. Presentations and Discussion on WGs

1) Through modeling and data analysis activities – including retrospective

analyses of the long-term observational record – how well do we

understand 2007? What are the gaps in observing and understanding sea-

ice loss and related changes?

2) What do modeling and data analysis tell us about overall system

behavior that is relevant for predicting sea ice – on seasonal to decadal

time scales – and related arctic changes? How does the “tipping point”

concept factor in?

3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the unexpected,

faster-than-forecast changes? What does this mean for responding to

change?

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the

unexpected, faster-than-forecast changes? What does this

mean for responding to change?

Synthesis of 2007: Discussion Themes