Good morning WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin...
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Transcript of Good morning WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin...
![Page 1: Good morning WORKSHOP : LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM Review and Business-of-the-Day Martin Miles, Co-Chair Environmental Systems Analysis Research.](https://reader031.fdocuments.net/reader031/viewer/2022032517/56649cb85503460f9497e03e/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Good morning
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Review and Business-of-the-Day
Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)
Boulder, Colorado
Jean-Claude GascardPierre Universitreg
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
I. Component presentations and discussion Wednesday a.m. and early p.m., plenum
II. Integration/synthesis presentations and discussion Wednesday p.m., plenum and groups
III. Gaps and needs – recommended steps discussion Thursday a.m., plenum
Agenda
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Individually:
DId you get something useful out of the meeting?
Learn something? Meet someone?
Plan something? Start something?
Measures of Success
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Individually:
DId you get something useful out of the meeting?
Learn something? Meet someone?
Plan something? Start something?
Collectively:
Will others – scientific community, agencies – get
something useful out of it?
Measures of Success
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
III. Lessons from 2007: Gaps and Needs for Understanding Arctic Change8:30 a.m. Welcome, review of Wednesday discussions, and today's goal
Martin Miles, ESARC Jean-Claude Gascard, Université Pierre et Marie Curie
9:00 a.m. Presentations and Discussion focused on:· What lessons can be learned from 2007 to guide future science activities?· What is needed in additional capacity and plans for observing the 2008 season (and beyond) to improve our understanding, and response strategies to arctic-system change? Specific needs relating back to the AON and Lagrangian workhops?
10:00 BREAK
10:30 a.m. Conclusions, recommendations, and next steps:· Given the unexpected changes witnessed in 2007, what are the priorities for observing, understanding, and responding to change activities? · How should these priorities be addressed? What are the next steps? Discussion of workshop products (synthesis papers and other products), next steps, and writing assignments
Agenda
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Review and Charge
Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)
Boulder, Colorado [email protected]
1. Review of Sessions I and II
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Review and Charge
Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)
Boulder, Colorado [email protected]
1. Review of Session I – Component talks
Sea ice, atmosphere and ocean
Terrestrial and human
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Component-level data and understanding
WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Component / sub-system
Sea-ice extent summer minimum
Sea-ice export and melt
Sea ice preconditioning (low
concentration, less MY vs. FY, ice thickness)
Lower troposphere – temp. and precip.
Atmospheric circulation
Clouds and aerosols (radiation)
Arctic Ocean – SST and heat content
Marine ecosystem (lower and higher-level)
Terrestrial ecosystem / vegetation / land-coverTerrestrial hydrology (rivers and lakes)
Greenland ice-sheet
Other terrestrial
Human response and other HD
Spatial
Temporal
Quant.
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Review and Charge
Martin Miles, Co-ChairEnvironmental Systems Analysis Research Center (ESARC)
Boulder, Colorado [email protected]
1. Review of Session II – Synthesis / modeling
talks and discussions
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
Related to goals for the workshop
Charge: Goals for today
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
1. Evaluate present knowledge
Observing
Understanding
Workshop Goals
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
2. Improve integration: cross-disciplinary andnational / international
Exchange information on ongoing research efforts
Identify strategy for cross-boundary collaborations
Workshop Goals
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
3. Produce an integrated overview of the summer 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for
continued decline or recovery
Observing
Understanding
Workshop Goals
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
4. Produce recommendations for addressing gaps in data and system understanding, to
guide near- and long-term science activities
Observing
Understanding
Responding
Workshop Goals
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
1. Produce recommendations for addressing gaps in data and system understanding, to
guide near- and long-term science activities – and strategy integration of efforts – to guide near- and long-term science activities
Gaps-and-needs discussion and subsequent efforts
Deliverable: Report
Outcomes and Deliverables
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
2. Produce an integrated overview of the summer 2007 sea-ice minimum, including prospects for
continued decline or recovery
Component talks, synthesis and subsequent efforts
Deliverable: Synthesis paper(s); Forecast/projection
Outcomes and Deliverables
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
2. Presentations and Discussion on WGs
1) Through modeling and data analysis activities – including retrospective
analyses of the long-term observational record – how well do we
understand 2007? What are the gaps in observing and understanding sea-
ice loss and related changes?
2) What do modeling and data analysis tell us about overall system
behavior that is relevant for predicting sea ice – on seasonal to decadal
time scales – and related arctic changes? How does the “tipping point”
concept factor in?
3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the unexpected,
faster-than-forecast changes? What does this mean for responding to
change?
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WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM
3) What are the science / policy / human implications of the
unexpected, faster-than-forecast changes? What does this
mean for responding to change?
Synthesis of 2007: Discussion Themes