Post on 01-Apr-2015
Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
26-27 June 2012, Moscow, Russia
2
Brazil – Russia Dialogue: Economic Policy Challenges27 June 2012
Session 4“Managing Foreign Trade in a
Globalized World (1)”
CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX)
Presidency of the Republic of Brazil
André Luís Ribeiro BarbosaTechnical Assistant / Foreign Trade Analyst
Presentation outline
1. Introduction: Living in a Changing World
2. Brazilian Trade Policy: the role of CAMEX
3. An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade
4. Bilateral Trade: – Brazil X Russia– Brazil X BRICS
5. Foreign Trade in a Globalized World: Final Considerations
1. Introduction: Living in a Changing World
The World has changed….
…and is changing
The world is not only living a financial crisis, it is going through a massive change: a new reality is on the way, and very fast
No right answers, no ready answers, but new questions
Emerging countries taking the lead (economic growth, population growth, savings and investments, consumption, access to technological progress…)
Developed countries stagnated
The World is changing…
… and will continue to change
(2005) only two Developing Countries among the ten largest economies: China 5th and Brazil 10th
(2010) China 2nd , Brazil 7th, India joins the group 9th
(2011) China 2nd, Brazil 6th, Russia replaces India 9th
Juggernaut: How Emerging Markets Are Reshaping Globalization (Uri Dadush and William Shaw)
(2050) Six out of the seven largest economies will be Developing Countries 3.3 billion people will reach middle or upper class (2 X current situation) Most of those will be in Developing Countries 70% of global trade will be have Developing Countries instead of today’s 1/3
2. Brazilian Trade Policy:The Role of CAMEX
CAMEX (Presidential Decree nº 4.732/2003)
Formulation, coordination and implementation of policies and activities related to foreign trade
Definition of major orientations regarding foreign trade Final decision on the adoption of trade defense
measures Coordination of agencies and trade facilitation
initiatives Establishment of guidances for free trade negotiations Fixation of import tariffs and tariff exemptions Decision on export financing
CAMEX
CÂMARA DE COMÉRCIO EXTERIOR
PRESIDENCY OF THE REPUBLIC / Council of
Government
CAMEX
Council of Ministers
GECEX COFIGCONEX
Executive Secretariat
GTFAC GTDC GTAR 08/08 GTI-LETEC GTCOP GC MERCOSUL UE
Composition
• Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
• Ministry of Finance
• Ministry of External Relations
• Home Affairs Office
• Ministry of Planning and Budget
• Ministry of Agriculture
• Ministry of Agrarian Development
GTFAC Technical Group of Trade Facilitation
(CAMEX Resolutions nº 70/2007 and nº 16/2008)
Scope: to advise the Council of Ministers on the formulation and implementation of trade facilitation policies
Operation: coordination and integration of all different governmental agencies dealing with register, license and control of imports and exports aiming trade facilitation principles
3. An Overview of Brazilian Foreign Trade
BRAZIL
13Câmara de Comércio Exterior - CAMEX
Territorial Extension:8.511.965 Km2
Sea boundaries:7.367 km
Land boundaries15.735 km
5 Geographical Regions26 Political entities (States)
and 1 Federal District
Pop. 2010:190 million
GDP 2011: US$ 2,5 trillion
6th largest economy
35 Internacional Airports37 Public Ports
42 Private Terminal Ports64 “Dry” Ports
24 Land Entry Points
Trade Balance EvolutionUS$ Billions – 2002-2011
-5
95
195
295
395
495
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Corrente / Tradeflow Exportação / Export Importação / Import Saldo / Surplus
2011 2010 Δ% 2011/10
Exports 256.040 201.915 26,8
Imports 226.243 181.768 24,5
Surplus 29.796 20.147 47,9
Trade Flow 482.283 383.684 25,7
Brazilian Trade Balance
2011/2010US$ Million
Brazilian Exports - Evolution 2002-2011
US$ Millions
60.43973.203
96.677
118.529
137.807
160.649
197.942
152.995
201.915
256.040
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Products Categories of Exports% Share - 2002-2011
54,7 54,3 55,0 55,1 54,4 52,3 46,8 44,0 39,4 36,1
14,8 15,0 13,9 13,5 14,2 13,613,7
13,414,0
14,1
28,1 28,9 29,5 29,3 29,2 32,136,9 40,5 44,6 47,8
2,4 1,8 1,6 2,1 2,2 2,1 2,6 2,1 2,1 2,1
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Oper. Esp. / Special Operations Básicos / Primarios / Basics
Semimanufaturados / Semimanuf. Manufaturados / Manufact.
Value Δ% 2011/10
% Share
Total Export 256.040 26,8 100,0
Basics
122.457 36,1 47,8
Manufactured 92.291 16,0 36,1
Semimanufactured 36.027 27,7 14,1
Exports Evolution by categoryUS$ Millions - 2011
Value Δ% 2012/11 % Share
Total Export 74.646 4,5 100,0
Basics
34.622 4,5 46,4
Manufactured 28.379 6,0 38,0
Semimanufactured 9.811 -0,9 13,1
Exports Evolution by categoryUS$ Millions - January–April – 2012
Índice de QuantumQuantum Index
Índice de PreçoPrice Index
Price and Quantum Index of Exports% Growth – 2011/2010
2,9 3,65,6
1,7
23,2
31,3
20,9
14,1
Total Básicos / Basics Semimanuf. /Semimanuf.
Manufat. /Manufact.
ValorValue
Δ % 2011/10
Part % % Share
1 – Minérios / Minerios / Ores 44.217 43,4 17,3 2 – Petróleo e combustíveis / Petroleo y combustibles / Oil and fuel 31.008 35,5 12,1 3 – Material de transporte / Transport material 25.120 15,5 9,8 4 – Complexo soja / Soja y derivados / Soybeans & prods 24.154 41,1 9,4 5 – Produtos metalúrgicos / Productos metalúrgicos / Metallurgic products
17.387 34,3 6,8
6 – Açúcar e etanol / Azúcar y etanol / Sugar & ethanol 16.432 19,3 6,4 7 – Químicos / Chemicals 16.234 20,5 6,3 8 – Carnes / Meats 15.357 15,5 6,0 9 – Máqs. e equipamentos / Máqs. y aparatos / Machines & equipments
10.457 27,7 4,1
10 – Café / Coffee 8.700 51,6 3,411 – Papel e celulose / Papel y celulosa / Paper & pulp 7.189 6,2 2,812 – Equipamentos elétricos / Aparatos eléctricos / Electrical equipment
4.811 -0,1 1,9
13 – Calçados e couro / Calzados y cuero/Footwear & leather 3.659 4,1 1,414 – Têxteis / Textiles 3.012 33,0 1,215 – Metais e Pedras Preciosas / Metales preciosos y piedras / Precious metals
and Stones
2.961 30,4 1,2
Main Products Exported
US$ Millions - 2011
Major Markets for Brazilian Exports
% Share - 2011
30,0
22,4
10,9
11,5
20,7
10,1
4,8
4,8
2,0
Ásia / Asia
América Latina e Caribe / Latin America & TheCaribbean
- Mercosul / Mercosur
- Demais da AL e Caribe / LA & The Caribbean, exc.Mercosur
União Européia / European Union
Estados Unidos / United States
Oriente Médio / Middle East
África / Africa
Europa Oriental / Eastern Europe
,
Exports Share % by Economic Blocks
2011
76
19
52
34 6431 50 33
14
4
16
2015
27 38 25
10
77
32
46
21 4212 41
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Unid
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Áfr
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Afr
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Euro
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Euro
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Dem
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/ O
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Manufaturados / Manufactured
Semimanufaturados / Semimanufactured
Básicos / Basics
ValorValue
Δ %2011/10
Part %% Share
1 – China 44.315 43,9 17,3
2 – Estados Unidos / United States 25.805 33,7 10,1
3 – Argentina 22.709 22,6 8,9
4 – Países Baixos / Países Bajos / Netherlands 13.640 33,4 5,3
5 – Japão / Japón / Japan 9.473 32,7 3,7
6 – Alemanha / Alemania / Germany 9.039 11,1 3,5
7 – Itália / Italia / Italy 5.441 28,5 2,1
8 – Chile / Chile 5.418 27,2 2,1
9 – Reino Unido / United Kingdom 5.230 12,8 2,0
10 – Espanha / España / Spain 4.706 20,9 1,8
11 – Coréia do Sul / Corea del Sur / South Korea
4.694 24,8 1,8
12 – Venezuela 4.592 19,2 1,8
13 – França / France 4.319 20,8 1,7
14 – Rússia / Russia 4.216 1,6 1,7
15 – Bélgica / Belgium 3.960 13,9 1,6
Major Countries for Brazilian Exports
US$ Millions - 2011
Exporter States Value % Share Value % Share
Brasil 256.040 100,00 Ceará 1.403 0,55
São Paulo 59.909 23,40 Alagoas 1.372 0,54
Minas Gerais 41.393 16,17 Pernambuco 1.199 0,47
Rio de Janeiro 29.445 11,50 Amazonas 914 0,36
Rio Grande do Sul 19.427 7,59 Amapá 603 0,24
Pará 18.337 7,16 Rondônia 490 0,19
Paraná 17.394 6,79 Tocantins 486 0,19
Espírito Santo 15.159 5,92 Rio Grande do Norte 281 0,11
Mato Grosso 11.100 4,34 Paraíba 225 0,09
Bahia 11.016 4,30 Distrito Federal 184 0,07
Santa Catarina 9.051 3,54 Piauí 164 0,06
Goiás 5.605 2,19 Sergipe 122 0,05
Mato Grosso do Sul 3.916 1,53 Acre 17 0,01
Maranhão 3.047 1,19 Roraima 15 0,01
Exports by Company Size
% Share by Value of 2010
Micro e Pequena Empresa /
Small enterprise
1,0%
Média Empresa / Medium enterprise
4,1%
Grande Empresa /
Large enterprise94,8%
Pessoa Física / Physical person
0,1%
Brazilian Exports Share % in World Exports
2002 - 2011
0,960,99
1,08
1,16 1,17 1,18
1,26 1,25
1,36
1,44
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Imports Evolution2002-2011US$ Millions
47.243 48.32662.836
73.600
91.351
120.617
172.985
127.722
181.768
226.243
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Import by Product Categories
Share % - 2002–2011
49,6 53,5 53,5 51,3 49,6 49,3 48,0 46,8 46,2 45,1
13,213,6 16,4 16,2 16,6 16,6 18,2
13,1 14,0 16,0
12,511,5 10,9 11,5 13,1 13,3 13,0
16,9 17,3 17,7
24,7 21,4 19,3 20,9 20,7 20,8 20,8 23,3 22,6 21,2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bens de Capital / Bienes de Capital / Capital Goods Bens de Consumo / Bienes de Consumo / Consumption Goods
Petróleo e Combustíveis / Petróleo y Combustibles / Oil and Fuel Bens Intermediários / Bienes Intermedios / Intermediate Goods
Price and Quantum Index of Imports
% Growth
2011/2010
Índice de QuantumQuantum Index
Índice de PreçoPrice Index
8,9
12,915,3
27,1
3,86,5
14,3
4,5
9,3
5,8
38,4
12,8
Bens de CapitalBienes de Capital /
Capital Goods
Bens de consumo não-duráveis
Bienes de consumo no duraderos /
Non-durables consumption goods
Bens de consumo duráveis
Bienes de consumo duraderos /
Durables consumption
Petróleo e Combustíveis
Petróleo y Combustibles /Oil and Fuel
Bens Intermediários
Bienes Intermedios /Intermediate Goods
Total
ValorValue
Δ % 2011/10
Part % %
Share
1 – Combustíveis e Lubrificantes / Combustibles y Lubricantes / Fuel and Oil 41.968 40,1 18,5
2 – Equip. Mecânicos / Aparatos Mecánicos / Mechanical Equipment 33.703 18,1 14,9
3 – Equip. Elétricos e Eletrônicos / Aparatos Eléctricos y Electrónicos / Electrical and Electronical
Equipment
26.395 18,6 11,7
4 – Automóveis e partes / Vehículos y partes / Motor Vehicles and parts 22.621 30,9 10,0
5 – Químicos Orgân. e Inorgânicos / Químicos Orgánicos e Inorgánicos / Organic and Inorganic
Chemicals
11.765 14,9 5,2
6 – Fertilizantes / Fertilizantes / Fertilizers 9.138 84,9 4,0
7 – Plásticos e Obras / Plásticos y Obras / Plastics and its Products 8.104 24,3 3,6
8 – Ferro, Aço e Obras / Hierro, Acero y Obras / Iron, Steel and its Products 7.583 -3,8 3,4
9 – Farmacêuticos / Farmacéuticos / Pharmaceuticals 6.499 6,7 2,9
10 – Instr. Ótica e Precisão / Aparatos de Óptica y Precisión / Optical and Precision Equipment
6.302 3,4 2,8
11 – Borracha e obras / Goma y obras / Rubber and its products 5.103 27,9 2,3
12 – Cereais e produtos de moagem / Cereales y productos de molinería / Cereals and milling
products
3.245 16,5 1,4
13 – Cobre e suas obras / Cobre y obras / Cooper and its products 2.775 12,4 1,2
14 – Aeronaves e Peças / Aeronaves y partes / Airplanes and its parts 2.516 9,7 1,1
15 – Filamentos e fibras Sintét. E Artif. / Filamentos y Fibras Sintéticas y Artificiales / Synthetic
and Arificial Filaments and Fibers
2.342 20,1 1,0
Main Products Imported
US$ Millions - 2011
Major Suppliers Markets to Brazil
% Share - 2011
31,0
20,5
16,7
8,6
8,1
15,1
6,8
2,7
2,3
Ásia / Asia
União Européia / European Union
América Latina e Caribe / Latin America & TheCaribbean
- Mercosul / Mercosur
- Demais da AL e Caribe / LA & The Caribbean,exc. Mercosur
Estados Unidos / United States
África / Africa
Oriente Médio / Middle East
Europa Oriental / Eastern Europe
ValorValue
Δ %2011/10
Part %% Share
1 – Estados Unidos / United States 33.962 25,6 15,0
2 – China 32.788 28,1 14,5
3 – Argentina 16.906 17,1 7,5
4 – Alemanha / Alemania / Germany 15.213 21,2 6,7
5 – Coréia do Sul / Coreia del Sur / South Korea
10.097 19,9 4,5
6 – Nigéria / Nigeria 8.386 41,7 3,7
7 – Japão / Japón / Japan 7.872 12,7 3,5
8 – Itália / Italia / Italy 6.222 28,6 2,8
9 – Índia / India 6.081 43,3 2,7
10 – França / Francia / France 5.462 13,8 2,4
11 – México / Mexico 5.130 33,0 2,3
12 – Chile 4.569 9,3 2,0
13 – Canadá / Canada 3.553 30,9 1,6
14 – Taiwan 3.509 13,0 1,6
15 – Reino Unido / United Kingdom 3.376 7,0 1,5
Major Supplier Countries to Brazil
US$ Millions – 2011
4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X Russia
4. Bilateral Trade: Brazil X BRICS
5. Foreign Trade in a Globalized World:
Final Considerations
A changing world…
What to do?
A new economic reality requires new trade approach• Global companies
Market orientation: one eye out, one eye in:
balance between external market X domestic market New currencies must take over Multilateralism X Regionalism RISKS:
• geopolitical tensions• multiple financial crises• protectionism • climate change
Multilateralism: the stalemate
at the core of the WTO
WTO is complete: Welcome Russia! Doha “Development” Round stuck
(dismantlement of the “single undertaking”) USA X emerging countries (the blame game)
Preassures:
• “Early harvest” - mainly on trade facilitation• Regional integration and the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) effect• Financial crisis and the advance of protectionism
Challenges
and opportunities
ahead!
Goverments must follow the timing of the businesses –quick answers
Trade facilitation means competitiveness: transparency, predictability, speed, intelligent risk analysis, elimination of unnecessary burdens and controls, coordination among agencies, customs working for economic operators
Diversification of products and destinies Reorientation of trade relations – new economic alliances Sustainability
46
THANK YOU!
CHAMBER OF FOREIGN TRADE (CAMEX)
Presidency of the Republic of Brazil
Esplanada dos MinistériosMinistério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior Bloco “J”, 7º andar, sala 700Brasília – DF, CEP: 70053-900
Telephones: + (55 61) 2027-7050 / 2027-7090Fax: + (55 61) 2027-7049camex@mdic.gov.br