Future:How to be

prepared for it?

Futurist Elina Hiltunen

What’s Next Consulting Oy

Elina Hiltunen, What’s Next Consulting Oy, www.whatsnext.fi, email: whatsnext@luukku.com

Elina, who?

• M.Sc in chemical engineering• Futurist• Ph.D. Student at HSE• Lecturer, consultant• Founder of What’s Next

Consulting Oy• Columnist at Talouselämä,

Wired UK, Talous Sanomat, Jade, Future Takes (US)

• Board member of European Futurists Conference

• Blogger: www.future.vuodatus.net

What did not happen in the

future:

1910 , France: Paleo future blogi

Harpleys Week, 1908

And what happened…

Source: paleofuture blog

Why to think about the future when we cannot predict it?

• Be prepared for various futures (anticipation)

• Innovating the futures and breaking our mental models

• Communicating and discussion about futures with shareholders

Anticipating the futures

Being prepared for

various futures

Some concepts of the future

Fad

Trend

Megatrend

duration

Weak Signals

Wild cards

Megatrenditare big trends that concern a lot of people

Source: http://www.cartoonweb.com/images/globalization/globalization1.gif

Globalization

NetworkingSource: http://www.cartoonweb.com/

Teknological development

Climate change

Increase of the use of social media

Increase of distant working

Increase of use of alternative energy sources

Increase of single households

Increase of use of mobile phones

TRENDs

Wild cards

• Fast changes with huge impacts

Kuvan lähde: http://www.israelnewsagency.com/cherney911terrorism.jpg

Weak signals

• Signals of new emerging issues that can become big trends in the future- or then not

A weak signal test

1. Makes your colleagues to laugh

2. You collagues are opposing it:no way, it will never happen

3. Makes people to wonder

4. No one has heard about it before

5. It is wanted that no-one talks about it anymore (a tabu)

1-5 ticks and it is a weak signal!

Source: Perhe- lehti

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcKqyn-gUbY

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6z2DWXmRkg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yd99gyE4jCk

Philips Lumalive

Different kinds of weak signals• Technological weak signals

innovations• Social weak signals

something is done differently, a change in accustomed

Where Do I (as a weak signal enthusiast) find them?

• Surfing in the Internet• Blogs, blogs and blogs• Keeping my eyes and ears open, mobilephone with

camera in the other hand and a notebook in the other

reporting about weak signals

How to use weak signals

TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi

a tool for organizations for collecting futures information

TrendWikiwnc.trendwiki.fi

signaalit

Trendi+ erilaiset

tilastolliset Analyysit

skenaariot

Now

Scenarios

Scenarios

Trend

Trend

TrendTrend

Trend

Trend

Megatrend

Megatrend

Megatrend

Testing the strategy

How will the strategy work in different futures

-finding weak points of strategy -thinking of various possibilities for action in the future

Scenarios

Strategy

Innovating the futures

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. ”

”For knowledge is limited to all we now know and

understand, while imagination embraces the entire world, and all there ever will be to know

and understand.”

Breaking the mental models

Tools:-Strategic serendipity-Futures Window

Futures Window

References: VTT, UPM, Nokia, Welness fair 2008, YLE

Strategic Serendipity

Target group theme

A trend

Product/ service

Comunnication and discussion with the

community

Finnair Departure 2093

www.departure2093.com

Futures work of various organizations• Macroscenarios (Shell, Nokia)

• Consumer scenarios (Philips, Sony Ericsson)

• Reports on various topics (Siemens, IBM)

• Futures teasers(Philips Design, VW)

Beware of these in you organization’s futures

work• Believing too much on your own opinions about the future

• Consensus, group think• Being prepared only for one, the most wanted future

• Superficiality, too little resources

Thank You! More information: www.future.vuodatus.net and www.whatsnext.fi