Post on 15-Mar-2016
description
1
Future Growth of the U.S. Aquaculture Industry and
Associated Environmental Quality Issues
Marine Policy CenterWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution
16 November 2005
Di Jin, Hauke Kite Powell, and Porter Hoagland
2
Outline Broad trends in seafood production Aquaculture supplies crucial in future Policy questions Types of marine aquaculture Economic and ecological effects Model framework Open-ocean aquaculture in New England and
simulation results Summary
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World and U.S. Marine Fish Landings(1953-2002)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
inde
x (1
953)
U.S. World
4.7 mmt
87 mmt
2 mmt
23 mmt
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[N.b. some kinds of aquaculture draw upon the capture fisheries.]
5
molluscs18%
aquatic plants10% crustaceans
18%
diadromous fish10%
freshwater fish36%
marine fish7%
miscellaneous aquatic animals
1%
World Aquaculture Production: $60 billion
6
Current and Projected World Fisheries andAquaculture Production (mmt)
2003 2010 2020 2030
Total capture fisheries 90 93 93 93
Total aquaculture 42 53 70 83
Total world fisheries 132 146 163 176
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US Seafood Consumption: 1909-2003
6
9
12
15
18
1905 1925 1945 1965 1985 2005
lbs p
er c
apita
8
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1983 1993 2003
US landingsUS imports (edible fish)
2.2 mmt
4.3mmt
US Landings and Imports (index)
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US Aquaculture Production (mt)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1983 1993 2003
US salmon culture (mt)US shellfish culture (mt)
$126m
$28m
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Can marine aquaculture expand to ensure the supply of seafood at current per capita consumption levels?
Can marine aquaculture reduce the US dependence on seafood imports?
Can we encourage the development of “sustainable” aquaculture?
What do we mean by “sustainable”?
Some Policy Questions
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Sustainable Agriculture. . . practices that meet current and future societal needs for food and fibre, for ecosystem services, and for healthy lives, and that do so by maximizing the net benefit to society when all costs and benefits of the practices are considered. . . If society is to maximize the net benefits of agriculture, there must be a fuller accounting of both the costs and the benefits of alternative agricultural practices, and such an accounting must become the basis of policy, ethics, and action.
Tilman et al. (2002)
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Marine Aquaculture
Open-Ocean Nearshore
Finfish
Shellfish
Finfish
Shellfish
Onshore
Finfish
Coastal ShrimpPolyculture Polyculture
Polyculture
Saltpond Shellfish
Types of Marine Aquaculture
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Netpens
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Longlines
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Positive Negative Indeterminate
Direct Economic Effects
Increase in seafood output Decrease in seafood price Increase in demands for
factors from other industries
R&D and technology investments
Administrative costs of providing access
Ineffective regulations Industry concentration (if
monopolistic)
Employment for currently unemployed workers
Increase in seafood quality
External Effects Organic nutrient inputs (up to a threshold)
Nutrient removal (shellfish)
Displacement of more productive ocean uses
Eutrophication Chemical pollution Pharmaceutical pollution Escapement Ecosystem disruption Protected species takings Growth overfishing of ranched
stocks
Bioaccumulation of carcinogens in fish
Overexploitation of forage fish stocks
Distributional Effects
Employment opportunities in a new industry
Redeployment of unused capital from the fishing industry
Rents accrue to the public as the owner of “ocean space”
Local communities left out of industry
Reorganization of local market structure
Loss of access to local seafood protein (forage fish)
Reduction of trade deficit
Typology of Economic and Ecological Effects
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Qualitative Assessment of Effects
Note: all effects are negative unless preceded by "+". "Z" = zero, "M" = moderate, "S" = significant. O
ffsho
re F
infis
h
Nea
rsho
reFi
nfis
h
Land
Bas
ed F
infis
h
Nea
rsho
re M
ollu
sks
Offs
hore
Mol
lusk
s
Offs
hore
Fis
h R
anch
ing
Nea
rsho
re F
ish
Ran
chin
g
Coa
stal
Mar
ine
Shrim
p
Poly
cultu
re
Organic Pollution and Eutrophication M S M Z Z Z M S M
Chemical and Pharmaceutical Pollution Z M M Z Z Z Z S Z
Habitat Modification Z Z Z Z Z Z Z S Z
Disease Transmission to Wild Stocks S S Z M M Z Z Z M
Escapements and Interbreeding S S Z M M Z Z Z M
Exploitation of Forage Fish Stock S S S Z Z S S Z Z
Takings of Protected Species M M Z Z M M M Z M
Direct Depletion of Natural Stocks Z Z Z Z Z S S Z Z
Bioaccumulation of Carcinogens S S S Z Z M M Z Z
Increased Productivity from Nutrient Input +M +S Z Z Z Z Z Z +M
Nutrient Removal Z Z Z +S +M Z Z Z +M
Significant negative effect Significant positive effect
Moderate negative effect Moderate positive effect
Neutral or No effect
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Priority Issues for Sustainability• Nearshore finfish culture
• disease transmission to wild stocks• escapement and interbreeding with or displacement of wild stocks• overexploitation of forage fish stocks • organic pollution • use conflicts
• Open-ocean finfish culture• escapement and interbreeding with or displacement of wild stocks• overexploitation of forage fish stocks
• Finfish ranching• depletion of natural stocks • use conflicts
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Current levels of N & P
Assimilative Capacity of the Coastal Environment andIndustry Growth Potential
Water quality standard
Max N & P loading from aquaculture
Aquaculture production level
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Pollution Level
Aquaculture Industry Scale
Seafood Demand Seafood Supply
Local Fisheries ImportsPopulationIncome
Fish Stock
AquacultureTechnologies
AquaculturePolicy
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dte)}s(D)z(I)s(C)E(C)s,x,E(B{max taf
0
qxE)x(fx
zs
Subject to
Model
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cEC f
Krxrx)x(f
2
vsCa
bzI
msD
Fish stock growth
Cost of fishing
Cost of aquaculture production
Investment in aquaculture
Environmental damage
22
wmvδbMCa
dxdfδ
qE1mcMC ff
K/rMC)qK/(crMC]MC)r()qK/(cr[MC)r()qK/(cr
xa
aaa*
482
kwwmvbxkfp
s/)()( *
0*
Marginal cost of aquaculture
Marginal cost of fishing
Steady-state fish stock
Steady-state aquaculture production scale
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Variable Description Unit Value
p0 intercept of fish demand function
$/MT 2,546
k slope of fish demand function $10-3/MT2 3.28
r Intrinsic growth rate time-1 0.3715
K carrying capacity 103 MT 1,681
q catchability coefficient day -1 0.000007
c unit cost of fishing effort (E) 103$/day 3.3
discount rate 0.07
Parameters for the Market and the Fishery
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Variable Description Unit Value
FCR average feed conversion ratio
1.365
w aquaculture production output per farm
MT/farm 2,115
v Aquaculture production operating cost a
103 $/year/farm 3,615(3,913)
b investment cost a 103 $/farm 7,514(7,792)
12E(fq) feed quantity MT/year/farm 2,765
QBOD biochemical oxygen demand (BOD)
MT/year/farm 968
QTN total nitrogen (TN) MT/year/farm 83
QTP total phosphorus (TP) MT/year/farm 14
QTSS total suspended solids (TSS)
MT/year/farm 830
Parameters for Open-Ocean Aquaculture
a. Values are associated with feed cost (fp) = $0.50/kg and $0.60/kg (in parentheses), respectively.
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Output Variables
Description Unit Without Damage
With Damage
Rising Imports
x fish stock 103MT 847.51 843.81 847.51
E fishing effort 106 days 26.314 26.431 26.314
hf fishing landings 103MT 156.11 156.12 156.11
s aquaculture industry size
farms 10.96 4.14 3.25
ha aquaculture production
103MT 23.18 8.76 6.88
h total fish supply 103MT 179.30 164.88 163.00
NBOD total BOD MT 10,609 4,008 3,146
NTN total TN MT 910 344 270
NTP total TN MT 153 58 46
NTSS total TSS MT 9,097 3,436 2,698
Simulation Results
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Market Demand and Supply
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
fish production (thousand MT)
pric
e ($
/MT)
MCf
demand curve
P0
MCa
hf ha
A
B
C
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Farm-Level Environmental Damage and Aquaculture Industry Size
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
environmental damage per farm ($ thousands)
num
ber o
f far
ms
FCR = 1.365 FCR = 1.286 FCR = 1.239
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Unit Environmental Damage and Aquaculture Industry Size
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
environmental damage per unit feed ($/MT)
num
ber o
f far
ms
FCR = 1.365 FCR = 1.286 FCR = 1.239
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Future Expansion of Open-Ocean Aquculture Industry
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
year
num
ber o
f far
ms
1% demand growth 2% demand growth 3% demand growth
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New England Groundfish Landings and Projection
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
year
thou
sand
met
ric to
ns
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Summary• Reviewed the market trends in seafood production.• Reviewed economic and ecological effects resulting from marine
aquaculture.• Existing studies project the future expansion of marine aquaculture
industry based on the assimilative capacity of the coastal environment. • Developed a market-oriented approach for projecting future industry
expansion.• Developed a New England case study for open-ocean aquaculture.• Socially optimal solution involves a combination of wild harvest fishery
and aquaculture.• Future size of open-ocean aquaculture industry is affected by its costs
and productivity, effectiveness of pollution control, and growth in seafood demand.