Post on 02-Apr-2020
CONFECTIONERY
FRYING
BAKERY MARGARINE
DAIRY
ICE-CREAM
TECHNICAL ANIMAL FEED
SAUCES & DRESSINGS
BOTTLING
SEGMENTS SUPPLIEDSPECIALITYFAT SOLUTIONS
SPECIALITY FATSMARGARINE HARD-STOCK FATS & LIQUID OILS
Our product portfolio of vegetable oils & fats are well positioned to offer hard-stocks fats as well as liquid oils.
INDUSTRIALPASTRYCAKECREAMLIQUID
CONSUMERWRAPPERTUB
SPECIALITY FATS CONFECTIONERY WIDE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO
●CHOCOLATE SPREADS ●FILLING FATS ●CBE/CBI/CBR/CBS ●
COCOABUTTER EQUIVALENTS (CBE)COCOABUTTER IMPROVERS (CBI)COCOABUTTER REPLACERS (CBR)COCOABUTTER SUBSTITUTES (CBS)
FILLING FATS
NUT ROASTING OIL BARRIER FATSCARAMEL FAT
BAKERY FAT
SPECIALITY FATSCONFECTIONERY FILLING FATS
MILK FILLINGCHOCOLATE BARS / PRALINES
PRODUCED WITHOLENEX CH 4098 RSPO SG
COOLING EFFECT FILLINGCOOLING SENSATION
PRODUCED WITHOLENEX FF 5050 RSPO SG
CREAM FILLINGSOFT , LIGHT & FLAVOURED
PRODUCED WITHOLENEX FF 5200 RSPO SG
SUSTAINABILITYA NEW OLENEX INITIATIVE.
MARIPOSAFRIENDS OF SUSTAINABLE PALM FROM LATIN AMERICA.
PROJECT NAME
We embrace partnership and believe that, as partners, we can make a difference and change the industry from within.
PARTNERSHIP& SOLIDARITY FRIENDS OF SUSTAINABLE PALM FROM LATAM.
EMBRACING PARTNERSHIP
JOIN & MAKE THE CHANGE.
CONTACT US … OLENEX.SUSTAINABILITY@OLENEX.COMOR YOUR SALES REPRESENTATIVE.
CUSTOMER SERVICE LOGISTICS & PARTNERSHIP
OLENEX PRODUCTS DELIVERED, SEAMLESS & COST EFFECTIVE
●WHS LOGISTICS●FULLY INTEGRATED SERVICE PARTNER
FOR INQUIRIES, PLEASE CONTACTCSROTTERDAMBRAKE@OLENEX.COMCSHAMBURGNOBLEE@OLENEX.COM
olenex.com
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 1
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of Vegetable Oils
Presentation Slides for Olenex Event “Meet & Greet” on 22 Nov 2018
Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World,Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
Feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.m ielke@oilworld.de>
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Company Profil and Services
• ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958
• ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information• Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for
oilseeds, oils & fats and oilmeals
• Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information
• Providing monthly and quarterly world supply and demand balances
• Daily, weekly and monthly publications.
• We offer our services to you. If we can be assistance, feel free to email Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
• Take a free 3-week trial at www.oilworld.de
2
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 2
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
� Impacts of the USA – China Trade War
� World Supply and Demand of Soybeans and Products
� The Outlook for Rapeseed and Other Oilseeds
� Challenges in the Palm Oil Industry and Longer Term Supply Threats
� Update on Biodiesel
� Lauric Oils
� The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils and Oilmeals
� Conclusions
OUTLINE of the Presentation
3
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
4
Prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 19 Nov 2018Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
420450480510540570600630660690720750780810840
Weekly Prices of Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US-$/T)
2017
2018
2016
Palm oil under pressure
since April on
- higher production
- declining world imports
- huge stocks (as of Nov 1
Indonesia 5.6 Mn vs 3.7,
Malaysia 2.7 Mn vs 2.2)
Indonesian palm oil
prices fell to a 12-year
low of US-$ 443 in mid-
Nov 2018, about US-$
240 below a year ago.
Is this the low?
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 3
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
5
Prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 21 Nov 2018Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
610
640
670
700
730
760
790
820
850Weekly Prices of Soya Oil Arg., fob (US-$/T)
2017
2018
2016
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Trade War between China and the USA
6
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r97/98
98/9999/00
00/01 01/02
02/03 03/04
04/05 05/06
06/07 07/08
08/09 09/10
10/1111/12
12/1313/14
14/1515/16
16/1717/18
18/19F0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100China
Rest of world
Imports of Soybeans (Mn T)China retaliated US import
taxes by implementing 25%
duty on imp of US soybeans
Big price impact in the US !
But China cannot satisfy its
soybean import demand
from non-US origins
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 4
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
7
The growth trend in
Chinese soybean
crush is likely to be
interrupted in
2018/19.
This will have major
repercussions on
worldwide
- soybean crushings
- and on availability
of soya oil and meal
Impacts of the Trade War China - USA
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
98/99 00/01
02/03 04/05
06/07 08/09
10/1112/13
14/1516/17
18/19F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100U.S.A. China
EU-28 Brazil
Argentina
Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T)
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
8
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r91/92
94/9597/98
00/01 03/04
06/07 09/10
12/13 15/16
18/19F
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8Change from a year before -- in Mn T
CHINA, PR: Soya Meal Consumption
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 5
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
10/11
11/12
12/13
13/14
14/15
15/16
16/17
17/18
18/19F
-6-4-202468
10121416
Year-On-Year Change (Mn T)
SOYA MEAL: World DisappearanceThe prospective sharply
reduced growth in the
world soybean crush
(due to the decline in
China) is resulting in a
corresponding slow-
down in production
and supplies of soya
meal and oil,
particularly in
Oct/March 2018/19.
This is an important
price-making factor
9
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
China: trade diversification
More than 90% of its soya
protein must be imported
In 2018/19 China will be
stepping up oilseed meal
imports
China starts joint ventures
in soybean crush plants in
South America.
US soybean crush is
currently running at close
to full capacity
10
CHINA, PR : Imports of Oilmeals (1000 T)October / September
18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16Soybean meal 600* 21 59 31Groundnut meal 30* 20 123 3Sunflower meal 400* 164 - -Rapeseed meal 1600* 1340 905 439Cornglutenfeed 65* 76 167 279Palmkern meal 700* 540 527 400Copra meal . . . . 90* 50 7 -Fish meal. . . . . . 1530* 1425 1555 1160Total . . . . . . . . . 5015* 3637 3342 2311
Trade War Impacts on Oilmeals
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 6
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Trade War Impacts on Oils & Fats
China will raise
imports of soya oil and
palm oil to
compensate smaller
domestic production
resulting from reduced
soybean crushings
11
CHINA, PR.: Imports of Major Veg.Oils (1000 T)October / September
18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16Soybean oil . . . . 950* 482 711 586Groundnut oil . . . 132* 112 111 113Sunflower oil . . . 770* 741 725 878Rapeseed oil . . . 1120* 1067 802 768Palm oil . . . . . . . 5730* 5432 5016 4798Palmkern oil. . . . 735* 708 595 560Coconut oil . . . . 145* 123 134 136Total . . . . . . . . . 9582* 8665 8094 7840
CHINA, PR.: Imports of Major Veg.Oils (1000 T)October / September
18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16Soybean oil . . . . 950* 482 711 586Groundnut oil . . . 132* 112 111 113Sunflower oil . . . 770* 741 725 878Rapeseed oil . . . 1120* 1067 802 768Palm oil . . . . . . . 5730* 5432 5016 4798Palmkern oil. . . . 735* 708 595 560Coconut oil . . . . 145* 123 134 136Total . . . . . . . . . 9582* 8665 8094 7840
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F
10012014016018020022024026028030032034036038010 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)
Soybeans
Other 9 oilseeds
The Global Oilseed Outlook in 2018/19
Unusually strong world
demand
Growing importance of
soybean worldwide and
further big growth ahead
In past 30 years world
soybean imports doubled
every 10 years
12
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 7
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
98/9900/01
02/03 04/05
06/07 08/09
10/1112/13
14/1516/17
18/19F
406080
100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)SOYBEANS
Harvested Area
Production
Outlook 2018/19:
World Production:
+25 Mn T
Stocks by 15 Mn T
Assumptions:
1) normal weather and
2) China–US trade war
Crop estimates 18/19:
USA 125* (vs 120)
Brazil 122* (vs 121)
Argent. 51* (vs 35)
India 10.6* (vs 8.3)
World 366* (vs 341)
13
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Significant supply
surplus in 2018/19
and burdensome
ending stocks
on the assumption
of about normal
weather in South
America in the next
4-6 months
Actual US soybean production could be even higher
Equivalent to 992 million bushel !
14
U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 Op. stocks . . . 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19 2.50 Crop. . . . . . . . 125.18 120.50(a) 116.92 106.86 106.88 Imports . . . . . .55* .62 .63 .66 .93
Exports . . . . . 49.00* 58.10 59.07 52.92 50.19 Crushings . . . 57.50* 55.93 51.74 51.33 51.16 Other use 3.65* 3.38 3.88 3.10 3.77 End. stocks . . 27.50* 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19
Stocks/usage 25.0% 10.2% 7.2% 5.0% 4.9%(a) OIL WORLD estimate versus the official 120.0 Mn T
U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t
18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 Op. stocks . . . 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19 2.50 Crop. . . . . . . . 125.18 120.50(a) 116.92 106.86 106.88 Imports . . . . . .55* .62 .63 .66 .93
Exports . . . . . 49.00* 58.10 59.07 52.92 50.19 Crushings . . . 57.50* 55.93 51.74 51.33 51.16 Other use 3.65* 3.38 3.88 3.10 3.77 End. stocks . . 27.50* 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19
Stocks/usage 25.0% 10.2% 7.2% 5.0% 4.9%(a) OIL WORLD estimate versus the official 120.0 Mn T
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 8
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
15
SOYBEANS : World Exports ( Mn T )September / August Sept / Dec
18/19F 17/18 16/17 2018F 2017Argentina 11.60* 3.07 6.93 2.15* 1.75Brazil 79.70* 75.85 60.31 15.20* 11.26Paraguay 6.15* 6.15 5.33 .86* 1.11Uruguay 3.26* 1.70 3.03 .36* .54Subtotal 100.71* 86.77 75.60 18.57* 14.66
U.S.A. 49.00* 58.10 59.07 20.24* 29.55Canada 5.53* 4.93 4.44 3.68* 3.06Ukraine 2.20* 2.76 2.90 .97* 1.23
Oth. c’tries 2.54* 2.10 1.86 .90* .84World 159.98* 154.66 143.87 44.36* 49.34
SOYBEANS : World Exports ( Mn T )September / August Sept / Dec
18/19F 17/18 16/17 2018F 2017Argentina 11.60* 3.07 6.93 2.15* 1.75Brazil 79.70* 75.85 60.31 15.20* 11.26Paraguay 6.15* 6.15 5.33 .86* 1.11Uruguay 3.26* 1.70 3.03 .36* .54Subtotal 100.71* 86.77 75.60 18.57* 14.66
U.S.A. 49.00* 58.10 59.07 20.24* 29.55Canada 5.53* 4.93 4.44 3.68* 3.06Ukraine 2.20* 2.76 2.90 .97* 1.23
Oth. c’tries 2.54* 2.10 1.86 .90* .84World 159.98* 154.66 143.87 44.36* 49.34
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
16
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
20132014
20152016
20172018
2019F
010
2030
40
5060
7080
90100
110
120
World USA
Soybean Stocks, end-August (Mn T)
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 9
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
17
Daily futures from 1 Feb 2018 until 21 Nov 2018Feb18 Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
800
850
900
950
1000
1050
1100
Daily futures
50-day moving average
January 2019 position
CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
18
Daily futures from 2 Oct 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Oct Nov DecJa18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
27
29
31
33
35
37
Dec 2018
50-day moving average
CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)
Daily futures from 2 Oct 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Oct Nov DecJa18FebMar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
300
320
340
360
380
400
Dec 2018
50-day moving average
CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)
Daily share from 1 Jan 2016 until 21 Nov 2018
Ja16 May Sep Ja17 May Sep Ja18 May Aug Nov
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40in % of total product value
CBOT : Daily Soya Oil Share
Nearest forward position
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 10
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Rape oil prices in Rott
currently at 855 US$
versus soya oil 730, sun
oil 665 and palm oil 460
Declining trend in
rapeseed area and
production in many
countries
Output in Mn T:
EU : 19.6 (21.9)
Ukr: 2.8 (2.4)
Canada 21.0 (21.3)
China only 4.8
Australia 2.0-2.3 (3.7)
97/9898/99
99/0000/01
01/02 02/03
03/04 04/05
05/06 06/07
07/08 08/09
09/10 10/11
11/1212/13
13/1414/15
15/1616/17
17/1818/19F
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
RAPESEED & CANOLA
Production
Harvested Area
19
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
20
Prices from Jan 2017 until 20 Nov 2018
Ja17 Apr Aug Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100Daily RME, Rapeseed Oil Prices & Spread (US-$/T)
RME, fob ARA (y1)
Rape oil, Dutch (y1)
RME/Rape OilSpread (y2)
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 11
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
21
Prices from 6 Jan 2017 until 20 November 2018
Ja17 Apr Aug Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600fob ARA -- in US-$/T
Daily Biodiesel Prices in Europe
RME
SME
Aug17 Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1000fob ARA -- in US-$/T
Daily Biodiesel Prices in Europe
Daily prices from Aug 2017 until Nov 20, 2018
SME
PME
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
22
Daily prices from 1 Jan 2018 until 20 Nov 2018Ja18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov
400
500
600
700
800
900
Rape oil
Soya oil
Sun oil
Palm oil, crude
Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 12
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
23
98/9900/01
02/03 04/05
06/07 08/09
10/1112/13
14/1516/17
18/19F
16
20
24
28
32
36
40
44
48
52
World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)SUNFLOWERSEED
Production
Harvested Area
Considerably higher
than expected crops
harvested in Ukraine
and Russia.
Output in Mn T:
Ukraine: 15.5 (13.5)
Russia: 11.6 (11.0)
Eu-28: 9.6 (vs. 10.0)
Argentina 3.8 (3.4)
Production & exports
of sun oil set to rise
by 0.9 and 0.7 Mn T in
2018/19
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
20162018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80Malaysia
Indonesia
Rest of World
in Major Countries (Mn T) Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2018
Effects of El Nino
The Outlook for Palm Oil
Palm Oil has been a
big success story in
the past 40 years.
2 Interruptions
2016:
-6% = -3.7 Mn T
1998:
-5% = -0.8 Mn T
24
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 13
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
The Outlook for Palm Oil
25
Many challenges:
- Lack of replanting (age profile)
- Labour shortage (Malaysia)
- Below potential yields
- Acreage limitations
The strong recovery in world
palm oil production in 2017 and
early 2018 was temporary.
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019F
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45Malaysia Indonesia
PALM OIL : Production in Key Countries (Mn T)Palm oil production
in Jan/Dec in Mn T:
Malaysia:
2017: 19.9
2018: 19.5
2019: 20.1
Indonesia:
2017: 37.1
2018: 41.0
2019: 43.0
26
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 14
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19F
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8Palm Oil Soya OilSun Oil Rape Oil
Change on Year in Mn T
World Production of 4 Major OilsOutlook of all Oils and Fats
27
Growth in world
production is set to
slow down in 18/19
for
- Palm oil
- Soya oil
- Rapeseed oil
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19F05
1015202530354045505560
Soy, Rape, Sun Oils
4 Animal FatsPalm Oil 9 Other
17 OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T)Higher import needs of
China, India and other
countries in 2018/19
World exports of 17 oils
& fats are set to
increase by 4.1 Mn T
(against -0.2 in 17/18)
World exports of
palm oil +2.6 (vs +0.5)
soya oil +0.2 (-0.7)
sun+rape oil +0.8 (-0.3)
28
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 15
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Average demand growth
in past 5 seasons:
Total per year +7.3 Mn T
Biofuel +2.3 Mn T
Food/other +5.0 Mn T
In 2017/18 about 16% of
the world consumption of
17 oils of 225 Mn T used
for energy
89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18
020406080
100120140160180200220240
biofuel food and other
Total Usage in Mn T
17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption
29
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Low palm oil prices rela-
tive to crude mineral oil
Low palm oil prices are
buying demand !!
Consumption of palm oil
and other veg oils rise
sharply in energy market
The palm oil offered at
price discounts of US-$
187 on Oct 25 and of 145
on Nov 21
Much improved Price Competitiveness of Palm Oil in the Energy Market
30
Weekly prices from January 2017 until 21 Nov 2018
Ja17 Apr Jly Oct Ja18 Apr Jly Sep Nov200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Crude palm oil, cif Rott.
ICE Gas Oil (Spot)
Weekly Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T)
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 16
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Biodiesel production
almost trebled in the
past 11 years. But the
growth is set to slow in
the years ahead.
15.0 Mn T of palm oil for
biofuels in 2018, even
21% of PO usage
(14 for biodiesel/HVO
and 1 Mn for electricity)
31
BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2019F 2018F 2017 2016 2015 2014 EU-28 . . . . . . . 13.50* 13.30* 13.55 12.68 12.37 12.27 U.S.A. . . . . . . . 7.25* 7.00* 6.13 6.23 4.72 4.80 Argentina . . . . . 2.70* 2.40* 2.87 2.66 1.81 2.58 Brazil . . . . . . . . 5.15* 4.65* 3.75 3.33 3.46 3.00 Colombia . . . . . .60* .57* .54 .51 .51 .52 Singapore . . . . 1.22* 1.12* 1.05 .99 .87 .80 Indonesia. . . . . 7.40* 5.20* 2.92* 3.18* 1.22 2.92 Malaysia . . . . . 1.40* 1.14* .72 .51 .67 .60 Thailand. . . . . . 1.53* 1.30* 1.20* 1.12 1.14 1.04 Oth. ctries.. . . . 3.57* 3.37* 3.11* 2.97* 2.90* 2.94*Total . . . . . . . . 44.32* 40.05* 35.84 34.18 29.67 31.47
Change in Mn T
+4.37* +4.21* +1.66 +4.51 -1.80 +3.45
BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2019F 2018F 2017 2016 2015 2014 EU-28 . . . . . . . 13.50* 13.30* 13.55 12.68 12.37 12.27 U.S.A. . . . . . . . 7.25* 7.00* 6.13 6.23 4.72 4.80 Argentina . . . . . 2.70* 2.40* 2.87 2.66 1.81 2.58 Brazil . . . . . . . . 5.15* 4.65* 3.75 3.33 3.46 3.00 Colombia . . . . . .60* .57* .54 .51 .51 .52 Singapore . . . . 1.22* 1.12* 1.05 .99 .87 .80 Indonesia. . . . . 7.40* 5.20* 2.92* 3.18* 1.22 2.92 Malaysia . . . . . 1.40* 1.14* .72 .51 .67 .60 Thailand. . . . . . 1.53* 1.30* 1.20* 1.12 1.14 1.04 Oth. ctries.. . . . 3.57* 3.37* 3.11* 2.97* 2.90* 2.94*Total . . . . . . . . 44.32* 40.05* 35.84 34.18 29.67 31.47
Change in Mn T
+4.37* +4.21* +1.66 +4.51 -1.80 +3.45
BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2019F 2018F 2017 2016 2015 2014 EU-28 . . . . . . . 13.50* 13.30* 13.55 12.68 12.37 12.27 U.S.A. . . . . . . . 7.25* 7.00* 6.13 6.23 4.72 4.80 Argentina . . . . . 2.70* 2.40* 2.87 2.66 1.81 2.58 Brazil . . . . . . . . 5.15* 4.65* 3.75 3.33 3.46 3.00 Colombia . . . . . .60* .57* .54 .51 .51 .52 Singapore . . . . 1.22* 1.12* 1.05 .99 .87 .80 Indonesia. . . . . 7.40* 5.20* 2.92* 3.18* 1.22 2.92 Malaysia . . . . . 1.40* 1.14* .72 .51 .67 .60 Thailand. . . . . . 1.53* 1.30* 1.20* 1.12 1.14 1.04 Oth. ctries.. . . . 3.57* 3.37* 3.11* 2.97* 2.90* 2.94*Total . . . . . . . . 44.32* 40.05* 35.84 34.18 29.67 31.47
Change in Mn T
+4.37* +4.21* +1.66 +4.51 -1.80 +3.45
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
32
Annual growth in world production of 17 oils/fats to slow to +5.9 Mn T in 2018/19
(against 10.8 Mn in 2017/18). But the total quantity is still 235 Mn T.
17 OILS & FATS: Consumption and Changes ( Mn T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
Consumption Annual Change 18/19F 17/18 16/17 18/19F 17/18 16/17
EU-28 . . . 34.58* 34.13 33.54 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7U.S.A. . . . 23.96* 23.50 22.37 +0.5 +1.1 +0.6Argentina. 3.75* 3.88 3.96 -0.1 -0.1 +0.4Brazil . . . . 10.93* 10.28 9.40 +0.6 +0.9 +0.4China, PR 38.48* 37.95 37.42 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5India . . . . 24.83* 24.26 23.88 +0.6 +0.4 +0.7Indonesia. 16.56* 13.37 11.42 +3.2 +2.0 +0.5Malaysia . 5.57* 5.13 4.58 +0.4 +0.6 +0.1Others . . . 75.80* 73.03 70.40 +2.8 +2.6 +2.8World . . . 234.46* 225.53 216.97 +8.9 +8.6 +6.7
17 OILS & FATS: Consumption and Changes ( Mn T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
Consumption Annual Change 18/19F 17/18 16/17 18/19F 17/18 16/17
EU-28 . . . 34.58* 34.13 33.54 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7U.S.A. . . . 23.96* 23.50 22.37 +0.5 +1.1 +0.6Argentina. 3.75* 3.88 3.96 -0.1 -0.1 +0.4Brazil . . . . 10.93* 10.28 9.40 +0.6 +0.9 +0.4China, PR 38.48* 37.95 37.42 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5India . . . . 24.83* 24.26 23.88 +0.6 +0.4 +0.7Indonesia. 16.56* 13.37 11.42 +3.2 +2.0 +0.5Malaysia . 5.57* 5.13 4.58 +0.4 +0.6 +0.1Others . . . 75.80* 73.03 70.40 +2.8 +2.6 +2.8World . . . 234.46* 225.53 216.97 +8.9 +8.6 +6.7
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 17
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F-5-4-3-2-1012345678 Production Supplies (a)
Consumption
Annual Change (Mn T)
PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a)
(a) Opening stocks + production
33
Sharp increase by 5.7-
6.0 Mn T forecast in
global palm oil
consumption in 18/19
Consumption growth
to exceed production
growth in 2018/19
Palm oil stocks to
peak in Dec 2018 and
decline in 2019
Prices set to recover
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
E n d - S e p t e m b e r2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1617 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage
Stocks/Usage (%)
Stocks Mn T
Contrary to rising
stocks of oilseeds,
world stocks of oils
and fats are still
comparatively low
in relation to
consumption
34
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 18
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
US soybean prices
plunged since April.
They are vulnerable
to a setback
towards $ 8.00 /bu,
unless China
resumes purchases
Soya meal prices
still supported
above last year‘s
level
35
Daily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 20 Nov 2018Jan 17 Jun 17 Jan 18 Jun 18 Oct
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
Soya pellets , Arg, cif Rott.
Soybeans, US, cif Rott.
Daily Prices in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Palm oil prices are
close to their bottom
1) rising demand from
the food and energy
sector, and
2) Slowing down of
production growth
3) World stocks of
palm oil and of all oils
& fats forecast to
decline by 0.8 and 1.6
Mn T, resp. in
Jan/Sept 2019
In the next 9 months
price rise of 50-100 $
in palm & soya oils
36
Daily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Ja17 Apr Jly Sep Ja 18 Apr Jly Sep Nov
200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900
-50050100150200250300350400450500550600650
Soya oil, fob Arg. (y1)
Palm oil, crude, fob Indo. (y1)
Premium/discounts (y2)
Daily Prices of Crude Soya Oil & Palm Oil (US-$/T)
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 19
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Palm oil futures on the
BMD are probably near
their lows.
Should move higher in
the next 4-9 months.
Upside is limited by
crude mineral prices.
Swing factors to watch:
- Monthly PO S & D
- Import purchases
- Energy demand
- US / China trade war
37
Prices from 1 March 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja18 Mar May Jly Sep Nov
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2700
2800
2900
3000Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T
MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Prices of Lauric Oils declining rapidly in 2018
World supplies of the
2 lauric oils were up by
1.0 Mn T in 2017/18
compared with just
+0.2 Mn a year earlier
Coconut oil output up
in 2017/18, following
4 years of decline
Lauric supply growth
0.8-0.9 Mn in 2018/19
Nov 1-21 price average
in Rott US-$ 690 and
740 for PKO and CNO.
Yesterday at 740 & 830
Daily prices from Jan 2015 until 20 Nov 2018Jan15 Jly Ja16 Jly Ja'17 Jly Ja18 Oct
400500600700800900
10001100120013001400150016001700180019002000 Coconut oil,Phil/Indo,cif Rott
Palmkern oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rott.
Palm oil crude, cif N.W. Eur
Daily Prices of 3 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
38
Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 20
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Prices of Lauric Oils declining rapidly in 2018
39
Jan 2015 -- until Nov 2018jan15
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jly
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan16
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jly
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan17
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jly
aug
sep
oct
nov
dec
jan18
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jly
aug
sep
oct
nov
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200
vs Palm Oil
vs Palmkernel Oil
of average prices in Rotterdam
Coconut Oil Premiums/DiscountsUS-$/T
Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958
Nov 22, 2018
Thank you for your attention!
More market info required? Just get in touch with me:
Thomas.Mielke@oilworld.de
fon +49 40 761 05021
OIL WORLD market information is available daily,
weekly and monthly
Sign up for a 3-week trial period
© Copyright 2018 ISTA Mielke GmbH. This information is destined for internal use only. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of
the proprietary content without the prior written consent of ISTA Mielke GmbH is prohibited.
The information and analyses given in this service are considered to be reliable. Every care is taken to
ensure the accuracy and completeness of the contents. We cannot, however, accept any responsibility
for them nor for the accuracy of our forecasts and opinions or any liability for the subscriber’s use.
Kindly visit us on www.oilworld.de For further information you may call +49 40 76105010