FRYING - Olenex Meet _ Greet 2018.pdf · 2018-12-06 · FRYING BAKERY MARGARINE DAIRY ICE-CREAM...

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Thomas Mielke, for details www.oilworld.de Olenex Seminar on 22 Nov 2018

Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 1

Your Information Provider - - Independent, Unbiased, Authoritative - - Since 1958

Nov 22, 2018

Global Supply, Demand and Price Outlook of Vegetable Oils

Presentation Slides for Olenex Event “Meet & Greet” on 22 Nov 2018

Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke, Oil World,Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals

Feel free to contact me for assistance at <thomas.m [email protected]>


Nov 22, 2018

Company Profil and Services

• ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958

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2




Nov 22, 2018

� Impacts of the USA – China Trade War

� World Supply and Demand of Soybeans and Products

� The Outlook for Rapeseed and Other Oilseeds

� Challenges in the Palm Oil Industry and Longer Term Supply Threats

� Update on Biodiesel

� Lauric Oils

� The Global Supply and Demand Outlook for the Major Oils and Oilmeals

� Conclusions

OUTLINE of the Presentation

3


Nov 22, 2018

4

Prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 19 Nov 2018Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

420450480510540570600630660690720750780810840

Weekly Prices of Palm Oil, fob Indonesia (US-$/T)

2017

2018

2016

Palm oil under pressure

since April on

- higher production

- declining world imports

- huge stocks (as of Nov 1

Indonesia 5.6 Mn vs 3.7,

Malaysia 2.7 Mn vs 2.2)

Indonesian palm oil

prices fell to a 12-year

low of US-$ 443 in mid-

Nov 2018, about US-$

240 below a year ago.

Is this the low?




Nov 22, 2018

5

Prices from 1 Jan 2016 until 21 Nov 2018Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

610

640

670

700

730

760

790

820

850Weekly Prices of Soya Oil Arg., fob (US-$/T)

2017

2018

2016


Nov 22, 2018

Trade War between China and the USA

6

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r97/98

98/9999/00

00/01 01/02

02/03 03/04

04/05 05/06

06/07 07/08

08/09 09/10

10/1111/12

12/1313/14

14/1515/16

16/1717/18

18/19F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100China

Rest of world

Imports of Soybeans (Mn T)China retaliated US import

taxes by implementing 25%

duty on imp of US soybeans

Big price impact in the US !

But China cannot satisfy its

soybean import demand

from non-US origins




Nov 22, 2018

7

The growth trend in

Chinese soybean

crush is likely to be

interrupted in

2018/19.

This will have major

repercussions on

worldwide

- soybean crushings

- and on availability

of soya oil and meal

Impacts of the Trade War China - USA

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

98/99 00/01

02/03 04/05

06/07 08/09

10/1112/13

14/1516/17

18/19F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100U.S.A. China

EU-28 Brazil

Argentina

Soybeans : Crushings in Key Countries (Mn T)


Nov 22, 2018

8

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r91/92

94/9597/98

00/01 03/04

06/07 09/10

12/13 15/16

18/19F

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8Change from a year before -- in Mn T

CHINA, PR: Soya Meal Consumption




Nov 22, 2018

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 04/05

05/06

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

11/12

12/13

13/14

14/15

15/16

16/17

17/18

18/19F

-6-4-202468

10121416

Year-On-Year Change (Mn T)

SOYA MEAL: World DisappearanceThe prospective sharply

reduced growth in the

world soybean crush

(due to the decline in

China) is resulting in a

corresponding slow-

down in production

and supplies of soya

meal and oil,

particularly in

Oct/March 2018/19.

This is an important

price-making factor

9


Nov 22, 2018

China: trade diversification

More than 90% of its soya

protein must be imported

In 2018/19 China will be

stepping up oilseed meal

imports

China starts joint ventures

in soybean crush plants in

South America.

US soybean crush is

currently running at close

to full capacity

10

CHINA, PR : Imports of Oilmeals (1000 T)October / September

18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16Soybean meal 600* 21 59 31Groundnut meal 30* 20 123 3Sunflower meal 400* 164 - -Rapeseed meal 1600* 1340 905 439Cornglutenfeed 65* 76 167 279Palmkern meal 700* 540 527 400Copra meal . . . . 90* 50 7 -Fish meal. . . . . . 1530* 1425 1555 1160Total . . . . . . . . . 5015* 3637 3342 2311

Trade War Impacts on Oilmeals




Nov 22, 2018

Trade War Impacts on Oils & Fats

China will raise

imports of soya oil and

palm oil to

compensate smaller

domestic production

resulting from reduced

soybean crushings

11

CHINA, PR.: Imports of Major Veg.Oils (1000 T)October / September

18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16Soybean oil . . . . 950* 482 711 586Groundnut oil . . . 132* 112 111 113Sunflower oil . . . 770* 741 725 878Rapeseed oil . . . 1120* 1067 802 768Palm oil . . . . . . . 5730* 5432 5016 4798Palmkern oil. . . . 735* 708 595 560Coconut oil . . . . 145* 123 134 136Total . . . . . . . . . 9582* 8665 8094 7840

CHINA, PR.: Imports of Major Veg.Oils (1000 T)October / September

18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16Soybean oil . . . . 950* 482 711 586Groundnut oil . . . 132* 112 111 113Sunflower oil . . . 770* 741 725 878Rapeseed oil . . . 1120* 1067 802 768Palm oil . . . . . . . 5730* 5432 5016 4798Palmkern oil. . . . 735* 708 595 560Coconut oil . . . . 145* 123 134 136Total . . . . . . . . . 9582* 8665 8094 7840


Nov 22, 2018

00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F

10012014016018020022024026028030032034036038010 Oilseeds: World Production (Mn T)

Soybeans

Other 9 oilseeds

The Global Oilseed Outlook in 2018/19

Unusually strong world

demand

Growing importance of

soybean worldwide and

further big growth ahead

In past 30 years world

soybean imports doubled

every 10 years

12




Nov 22, 2018

98/9900/01

02/03 04/05

06/07 08/09

10/1112/13

14/1516/17

18/19F

406080

100120140160180200220240260280300320340360380

World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)SOYBEANS

Harvested Area

Production

Outlook 2018/19:

World Production:

+25 Mn T

Stocks by 15 Mn T

Assumptions:

1) normal weather and

2) China–US trade war

Crop estimates 18/19:

USA 125* (vs 120)

Brazil 122* (vs 121)

Argent. 51* (vs 35)

India 10.6* (vs 8.3)

World 366* (vs 341)

13


Nov 22, 2018

Significant supply

surplus in 2018/19

and burdensome

ending stocks

on the assumption

of about normal

weather in South

America in the next

4-6 months

Actual US soybean production could be even higher

Equivalent to 992 million bushel !

14

U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t

18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 Op. stocks . . . 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19 2.50 Crop. . . . . . . . 125.18 120.50(a) 116.92 106.86 106.88 Imports . . . . . .55* .62 .63 .66 .93

Exports . . . . . 49.00* 58.10 59.07 52.92 50.19 Crushings . . . 57.50* 55.93 51.74 51.33 51.16 Other use 3.65* 3.38 3.88 3.10 3.77 End. stocks . . 27.50* 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19

Stocks/usage 25.0% 10.2% 7.2% 5.0% 4.9%(a) OIL WORLD estimate versus the official 120.0 Mn T

U.S.A. : Soybean Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) S e p t e m b e r / A u g u s t

18/19F 17/18 16/17 15/16 14/15 Op. stocks . . . 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19 2.50 Crop. . . . . . . . 125.18 120.50(a) 116.92 106.86 106.88 Imports . . . . . .55* .62 .63 .66 .93

Exports . . . . . 49.00* 58.10 59.07 52.92 50.19 Crushings . . . 57.50* 55.93 51.74 51.33 51.16 Other use 3.65* 3.38 3.88 3.10 3.77 End. stocks . . 27.50* 11.92 8.21 5.35 5.19

Stocks/usage 25.0% 10.2% 7.2% 5.0% 4.9%(a) OIL WORLD estimate versus the official 120.0 Mn T




Nov 22, 2018

15

SOYBEANS : World Exports ( Mn T )September / August Sept / Dec

18/19F 17/18 16/17 2018F 2017Argentina 11.60* 3.07 6.93 2.15* 1.75Brazil 79.70* 75.85 60.31 15.20* 11.26Paraguay 6.15* 6.15 5.33 .86* 1.11Uruguay 3.26* 1.70 3.03 .36* .54Subtotal 100.71* 86.77 75.60 18.57* 14.66

U.S.A. 49.00* 58.10 59.07 20.24* 29.55Canada 5.53* 4.93 4.44 3.68* 3.06Ukraine 2.20* 2.76 2.90 .97* 1.23

Oth. c’tries 2.54* 2.10 1.86 .90* .84World 159.98* 154.66 143.87 44.36* 49.34

SOYBEANS : World Exports ( Mn T )September / August Sept / Dec

18/19F 17/18 16/17 2018F 2017Argentina 11.60* 3.07 6.93 2.15* 1.75Brazil 79.70* 75.85 60.31 15.20* 11.26Paraguay 6.15* 6.15 5.33 .86* 1.11Uruguay 3.26* 1.70 3.03 .36* .54Subtotal 100.71* 86.77 75.60 18.57* 14.66

U.S.A. 49.00* 58.10 59.07 20.24* 29.55Canada 5.53* 4.93 4.44 3.68* 3.06Ukraine 2.20* 2.76 2.90 .97* 1.23

Oth. c’tries 2.54* 2.10 1.86 .90* .84World 159.98* 154.66 143.87 44.36* 49.34


Nov 22, 2018

16

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20112012

20132014

20152016

20172018

2019F

010

2030

40

5060

7080

90100

110

120

World USA

Soybean Stocks, end-August (Mn T)




Nov 22, 2018

17

Daily futures from 1 Feb 2018 until 21 Nov 2018Feb18 Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

800

850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

Daily futures

50-day moving average

January 2019 position

CBOT: Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)


Nov 22, 2018

18

Daily futures from 2 Oct 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Oct Nov DecJa18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

27

29

31

33

35

37

Dec 2018


CBOT: Daily Soya Oil Futures (c/lb)

Daily futures from 2 Oct 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Oct Nov DecJa18FebMar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

300

320

340

360

380

400

Dec 2018


CBOT: Daily Soya Meal Futures ($/ST)

Daily share from 1 Jan 2016 until 21 Nov 2018

Ja16 May Sep Ja17 May Sep Ja18 May Aug Nov

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40in % of total product value

CBOT : Daily Soya Oil Share

Nearest forward position




Nov 22, 2018

Rape oil prices in Rott

currently at 855 US$

versus soya oil 730, sun

oil 665 and palm oil 460

Declining trend in

rapeseed area and

production in many

countries

Output in Mn T:

EU : 19.6 (21.9)

Ukr: 2.8 (2.4)

Canada 21.0 (21.3)

China only 4.8

Australia 2.0-2.3 (3.7)

97/9898/99

99/0000/01

01/02 02/03

03/04 04/05

05/06 06/07

07/08 08/09

09/10 10/11

11/1212/13

13/1414/15

15/1616/17

17/1818/19F

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)

RAPESEED & CANOLA

Production

Harvested Area

19


Nov 22, 2018

20

Prices from Jan 2017 until 20 Nov 2018

Ja17 Apr Aug Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100Daily RME, Rapeseed Oil Prices & Spread (US-$/T)

RME, fob ARA (y1)

Rape oil, Dutch (y1)

RME/Rape OilSpread (y2)




Nov 22, 2018

21

Prices from 6 Jan 2017 until 20 November 2018

Ja17 Apr Aug Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600fob ARA -- in US-$/T

Daily Biodiesel Prices in Europe

RME

SME

Aug17 Nov Ja18 Apr Aug Nov

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

950

1000fob ARA -- in US-$/T

Daily Biodiesel Prices in Europe

Daily prices from Aug 2017 until Nov 20, 2018

SME

PME


Nov 22, 2018

22

Daily prices from 1 Jan 2018 until 20 Nov 2018Ja18 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov

400

500

600

700

800

900

Rape oil

Soya oil

Sun oil

Palm oil, crude

Daily Prices of 4 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)




Nov 22, 2018

23

98/9900/01

02/03 04/05

06/07 08/09

10/1112/13

14/1516/17

18/19F

16

20

24

28

32

36

40

44

48

52

World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)SUNFLOWERSEED

Production

Harvested Area

Considerably higher

than expected crops

harvested in Ukraine

and Russia.

Output in Mn T:

Ukraine: 15.5 (13.5)

Russia: 11.6 (11.0)

Eu-28: 9.6 (vs. 10.0)

Argentina 3.8 (3.4)

Production & exports

of sun oil set to rise

by 0.9 and 0.7 Mn T in

2018/19


Nov 22, 2018

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80Malaysia

Indonesia

Rest of World

in Major Countries (Mn T) Palm Oil Production 1980 - 2018

Effects of El Nino

The Outlook for Palm Oil

Palm Oil has been a

big success story in

the past 40 years.

2 Interruptions

2016:

-6% = -3.7 Mn T

1998:

-5% = -0.8 Mn T

24




Nov 22, 2018

The Outlook for Palm Oil

25

Many challenges:

- Lack of replanting (age profile)

- Labour shortage (Malaysia)

- Below potential yields

- Acreage limitations

The strong recovery in world

palm oil production in 2017 and

early 2018 was temporary.


Nov 22, 2018

J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r 1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019F

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Malaysia Indonesia

PALM OIL : Production in Key Countries (Mn T)Palm oil production

in Jan/Dec in Mn T:

Malaysia:

2017: 19.9

2018: 19.5

2019: 20.1

Indonesia:

2017: 37.1

2018: 41.0

2019: 43.0

26




Nov 22, 2018

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19F

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8Palm Oil Soya OilSun Oil Rape Oil

Change on Year in Mn T

World Production of 4 Major OilsOutlook of all Oils and Fats

27

Growth in world

production is set to

slow down in 18/19

for

- Palm oil

- Soya oil

- Rapeseed oil


Nov 22, 2018

03/04 06/07 09/10 12/13 15/16 18/19F05

1015202530354045505560

Soy, Rape, Sun Oils

4 Animal FatsPalm Oil 9 Other

17 OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T)Higher import needs of

China, India and other

countries in 2018/19

World exports of 17 oils

& fats are set to

increase by 4.1 Mn T

(against -0.2 in 17/18)

World exports of

palm oil +2.6 (vs +0.5)

soya oil +0.2 (-0.7)

sun+rape oil +0.8 (-0.3)

28




Nov 22, 2018

Average demand growth

in past 5 seasons:

Total per year +7.3 Mn T

Biofuel +2.3 Mn T

Food/other +5.0 Mn T

In 2017/18 about 16% of

the world consumption of

17 oils of 225 Mn T used

for energy

89/90 91/92 93/94 95/96 97/98 99/00 01/02 03/04 05/06 07/08 09/10 11/12 13/14 15/16 17/18

020406080

100120140160180200220240

biofuel food and other

Total Usage in Mn T

17 Oils & Fats : World Consumption

29


Nov 22, 2018

Low palm oil prices rela-

tive to crude mineral oil

Low palm oil prices are

buying demand !!

Consumption of palm oil

and other veg oils rise

sharply in energy market

The palm oil offered at

price discounts of US-$

187 on Oct 25 and of 145

on Nov 21

Much improved Price Competitiveness of Palm Oil in the Energy Market

30

Weekly prices from January 2017 until 21 Nov 2018

Ja17 Apr Jly Oct Ja18 Apr Jly Sep Nov200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Crude palm oil, cif Rott.

ICE Gas Oil (Spot)

Weekly Prices of Palm oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T)




Nov 22, 2018

Biodiesel production

almost trebled in the

past 11 years. But the

growth is set to slow in

the years ahead.

15.0 Mn T of palm oil for

biofuels in 2018, even

21% of PO usage

(14 for biodiesel/HVO

and 1 Mn for electricity)

31

BIODIESEL : World Production by Country ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r

2019F 2018F 2017 2016 2015 2014 EU-28 . . . . . . . 13.50* 13.30* 13.55 12.68 12.37 12.27 U.S.A. . . . . . . . 7.25* 7.00* 6.13 6.23 4.72 4.80 Argentina . . . . . 2.70* 2.40* 2.87 2.66 1.81 2.58 Brazil . . . . . . . . 5.15* 4.65* 3.75 3.33 3.46 3.00 Colombia . . . . . .60* .57* .54 .51 .51 .52 Singapore . . . . 1.22* 1.12* 1.05 .99 .87 .80 Indonesia. . . . . 7.40* 5.20* 2.92* 3.18* 1.22 2.92 Malaysia . . . . . 1.40* 1.14* .72 .51 .67 .60 Thailand. . . . . . 1.53* 1.30* 1.20* 1.12 1.14 1.04 Oth. ctries.. . . . 3.57* 3.37* 3.11* 2.97* 2.90* 2.94*Total . . . . . . . . 44.32* 40.05* 35.84 34.18 29.67 31.47

Change in Mn T

+4.37* +4.21* +1.66 +4.51 -1.80 +3.45



Change in Mn T

+4.37* +4.21* +1.66 +4.51 -1.80 +3.45



Change in Mn T

+4.37* +4.21* +1.66 +4.51 -1.80 +3.45


Nov 22, 2018

32

Annual growth in world production of 17 oils/fats to slow to +5.9 Mn T in 2018/19

(against 10.8 Mn in 2017/18). But the total quantity is still 235 Mn T.

17 OILS & FATS: Consumption and Changes ( Mn T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

Consumption Annual Change 18/19F 17/18 16/17 18/19F 17/18 16/17

EU-28 . . . 34.58* 34.13 33.54 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7U.S.A. . . . 23.96* 23.50 22.37 +0.5 +1.1 +0.6Argentina. 3.75* 3.88 3.96 -0.1 -0.1 +0.4Brazil . . . . 10.93* 10.28 9.40 +0.6 +0.9 +0.4China, PR 38.48* 37.95 37.42 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5India . . . . 24.83* 24.26 23.88 +0.6 +0.4 +0.7Indonesia. 16.56* 13.37 11.42 +3.2 +2.0 +0.5Malaysia . 5.57* 5.13 4.58 +0.4 +0.6 +0.1Others . . . 75.80* 73.03 70.40 +2.8 +2.6 +2.8World . . . 234.46* 225.53 216.97 +8.9 +8.6 +6.7

17 OILS & FATS: Consumption and Changes ( Mn T)O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

Consumption Annual Change 18/19F 17/18 16/17 18/19F 17/18 16/17

EU-28 . . . 34.58* 34.13 33.54 +0.5 +0.6 +0.7U.S.A. . . . 23.96* 23.50 22.37 +0.5 +1.1 +0.6Argentina. 3.75* 3.88 3.96 -0.1 -0.1 +0.4Brazil . . . . 10.93* 10.28 9.40 +0.6 +0.9 +0.4China, PR 38.48* 37.95 37.42 +0.5 +0.5 +0.5India . . . . 24.83* 24.26 23.88 +0.6 +0.4 +0.7Indonesia. 16.56* 13.37 11.42 +3.2 +2.0 +0.5Malaysia . 5.57* 5.13 4.58 +0.4 +0.6 +0.1Others . . . 75.80* 73.03 70.40 +2.8 +2.6 +2.8World . . . 234.46* 225.53 216.97 +8.9 +8.6 +6.7




Nov 22, 2018

O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r

08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F-5-4-3-2-1012345678 Production Supplies (a)

Consumption

Annual Change (Mn T)

PALM OIL: World Consumption & Supplies (a)

(a) Opening stocks + production

33

Sharp increase by 5.7-

6.0 Mn T forecast in

global palm oil

consumption in 18/19

Consumption growth

to exceed production

growth in 2018/19

Palm oil stocks to

peak in Dec 2018 and

decline in 2019

Prices set to recover


Nov 22, 2018

E n d - S e p t e m b e r2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019F

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1617 Oils & Fats: Stocks & Stocks/Usage

Stocks/Usage (%)

Stocks Mn T

Contrary to rising

stocks of oilseeds,

world stocks of oils

and fats are still

comparatively low

in relation to

consumption

34




Nov 22, 2018

US soybean prices

plunged since April.

They are vulnerable

to a setback

towards $ 8.00 /bu,

unless China

resumes purchases

Soya meal prices

still supported

above last year‘s

level

35

Daily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 20 Nov 2018Jan 17 Jun 17 Jan 18 Jun 18 Oct

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Soya pellets , Arg, cif Rott.

Soybeans, US, cif Rott.

Daily Prices in Rotterdam (US-$/T)


Nov 22, 2018

Palm oil prices are

close to their bottom

1) rising demand from

the food and energy

sector, and

2) Slowing down of

production growth

3) World stocks of

palm oil and of all oils

& fats forecast to

decline by 0.8 and 1.6

Mn T, resp. in

Jan/Sept 2019

In the next 9 months

price rise of 50-100 $

in palm & soya oils

36

Daily prices from 2 Jan 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Ja17 Apr Jly Sep Ja 18 Apr Jly Sep Nov

200250300350400450500550600650700750800850900

-50050100150200250300350400450500550600650

Soya oil, fob Arg. (y1)

Palm oil, crude, fob Indo. (y1)

Premium/discounts (y2)

Daily Prices of Crude Soya Oil & Palm Oil (US-$/T)




Nov 22, 2018

Palm oil futures on the

BMD are probably near

their lows.

Should move higher in

the next 4-9 months.

Upside is limited by

crude mineral prices.

Swing factors to watch:

- Monthly PO S & D

- Import purchases

- Energy demand

- US / China trade war

37

Prices from 1 March 2017 until 21 Nov 2018Mar May Jly Sep Nov Ja18 Mar May Jly Sep Nov

1900

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

2500

2600

2700

2800

2900

3000Third position in Malaysian Ringgit/T

MALAYSIA: Crude Palm Oil Futures Close


Nov 22, 2018

Prices of Lauric Oils declining rapidly in 2018

World supplies of the

2 lauric oils were up by

1.0 Mn T in 2017/18

compared with just

+0.2 Mn a year earlier

Coconut oil output up

in 2017/18, following

4 years of decline

Lauric supply growth

0.8-0.9 Mn in 2018/19

Nov 1-21 price average

in Rott US-$ 690 and

740 for PKO and CNO.

Yesterday at 740 & 830

Daily prices from Jan 2015 until 20 Nov 2018Jan15 Jly Ja16 Jly Ja'17 Jly Ja18 Oct

400500600700800900

10001100120013001400150016001700180019002000 Coconut oil,Phil/Indo,cif Rott

Palmkern oil, Mal./Indo., cif Rott.

Palm oil crude, cif N.W. Eur

Daily Prices of 3 Oils in Rotterdam (US-$/T)

38




Nov 22, 2018

Prices of Lauric Oils declining rapidly in 2018

39

Jan 2015 -- until Nov 2018jan15

feb

mar

apr

may

jun

jly

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

jan16

feb

mar

apr

may

jun

jly

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

jan17

feb

mar

apr

may

jun

jly

aug

sep

oct

nov

dec

jan18

feb

mar

apr

may

jun

jly

aug

sep

oct

nov

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200

vs Palm Oil

vs Palmkernel Oil

of average prices in Rotterdam

Coconut Oil Premiums/DiscountsUS-$/T


Nov 22, 2018

Thank you for your attention!

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