Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Carbon Emissions:Carbon Emissions:

A Different Future?A Different Future?Robert J. Finley

Illinois State Geological SurveyChampaign, Illinois

Governor’s Pollution Prevention AwardsOctober 25, 2007Chicago, Illinois

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

Energy demand growthGlobal overview of fossil fuel reservesChanges in the global energy sceneFutureGen: what is it?Carbon sequestration

Sources of InformationSources of Information

BP Statistical Review, London (BP)Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C.U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)International Energy Agency, Paris (IEA)U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)Midwest Geological Sequestration ConsortiumChevron Corporation

Key ObservationsKey Observations

The world is on an “energy express train” with respect to expanding use of conventional fossil fuelsDeveloping countries are pursuing living standards and industrialization with impacts that are just beginning to be globally feltCoal is abundant, but we need to solve coal’s emissions and climate issues through new technology like IGCC and FutureGenGlobally, we are adding 70 million people per year and 450 million additional vehicles are expected by 2030

World Energy Projections: 2020World Energy Projections: 2020--2030*2030*

Oil demand growth will reach 104 mmbd in 2020, and 118 mmbd in 2030, up from 84.5 mmbd in 2006*Coal demand will grow 47 percent from 4.8 bty to 7.0 bty by 2030In 2002, 1.6 of 6.1 billion people lacked electricity; in 2030 1.4 billion of 8.3 billion people may still lack electricity**

*EIA 2007, BP, 2006 **IEA, 2001, 2002

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980--20252025(quadrillion Btu)(quadrillion Btu)

Oil

Natural Gas

Coal

34%

27%

9%Renewables

Nuclear

26%

5%

Share of WorldTotal

History Projections

38%

24%

24%8%

6%

EIA International Energy Outlook 2006

Regional Shares in WorldRegional Shares in WorldEnergy Demand, percentEnergy Demand, percent

(IEA, 2004)(IEA, 2004)

203016,325 Mtoe

Developed Countries

Transition Economies

Developing

3852

10

48

200210,200 Mtoe

43

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel,1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)

History ProjectionsLiquid Fuels

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Renewables

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

World Oil ReservesWorld Oil Reserves(BP, 2004)(BP, 2004)

Known world oil reserves will last 43 years at current rates of consumption

The Middle East holds about 63 percent of proven reserves while North America holds about 6 percent

Proved Oil Reserves End 2005Proved Oil Reserves End 2005(BP, 2006)(BP, 2006)

742.7

140.5

U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030(million barrels per day)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

Lower 48 Onshore

Alaska

Deepwater Offshore

ProjectionsHistory

Total

Shallow Water Offshore

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

ProjectionsHistory

Light-Duty Vehicles

Rail

Heavy-Duty Vehicles

Water

Air

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels/day)

Consumption

Domestic Supply

Net Imports60%

61%

History Projections

EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

Net Oil Imports in the United States, China, Net Oil Imports in the United States, China, and India, 2003and India, 2003--2025 (million barrels/day)2025 (million barrels/day)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

United States

China

India

EIA International Energy Outlook 2006

World Natural GasWorld Natural GasReservesReserves

(BP, 2004)(BP, 2004)

Known world gas reserves will last 64 years at current rates of consumption

The former Soviet Union has 8 times the gas reserves of North America and the Middle East has 7 times

Proved Natural Gas Reserves End 2005Proved Natural Gas Reserves End 2005(BP, 2006)(BP, 2006)

72.13

64.01

14.84

U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)

0

2

4

6

8

10

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030

Alaska

Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional

Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore

Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved

Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore

ProjectionsHistory

Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary

Major Sources of Incremental U.S.Natural Gas Supply,

2005-2030 (trillion cubic feet)

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Growth in Alaskan Production

Growth inNon-AssociatedUnconventional

Growth in LNG Imports

Base Production (all sources)

Annual Energy Outlook 2007

(EIA, 2007)

World Coal ReservesWorld Coal Reserves(BP, 2005)(BP, 2005)

Known world coal reserves will last 312 years at current rates of consumptionThree areas of the world have “subequal”, major coal resources:

-Asia Pacific 297 billion tons-North America: 254 billion tons-Europe and Eurasia: 287 billion tons

Proved Coal Reserves End 2005Proved Coal Reserves End 2005(BP, 2006)(BP, 2006)

296.9287.1

254.4

50.3

Coal: An Old Fuel inCoal: An Old Fuel inAbundant SupplyAbundant Supply

(BP, 2004)(BP, 2004)

The United States:- holds 25 percent of world coal reserves- accounts for 22 percent of world production- accounts for 22 percent of world consumption

(“balance” between reserves, production, and use)

World Coal Demand by Sector,World Coal Demand by Sector,percent (IEA, 2004)percent (IEA, 2004)

1

79

812

Power Generation

Other

Industry

Residential

3

6916

12

2030 7,029 million tons2002 4,791 million tons

World Net Electricity Generation,World Net Electricity Generation,2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

North America OECD EuropeOECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and EurasiaNon-OECD Asia Middle EastAfrica Central & South America

2004 2015 2030

International Energy Outlook 2007

9,455

6,969

11,120 11,169

13,190

17,174

OECDNon-OECD

(EIA, 2007)

World EnergyWorld Energy--Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 19901990--2030 (billion metric tons)2030 (billion metric tons)

05

1015

202530

3540

4550

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Coal

Liquids

Natural Gas

Total

History Projections

(EIA, 2007)International Energy Outlook 2007

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

per capitaper dollar real GDP

U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar ofReal Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030

(index, 1970 = 1)

Annual Energy Outlook 2007

History

Projections

(EIA, 2007)

Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

486 in 2010

407 in 2020353 in 2030

(EIA, 2007)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030

(million metric tons)

6,214 in 2010

6,944 in 2020

HistoryProjections

Annual Energy Outlook 2007

7,950 in 2030

(EIA, 2007)

Illinois BasinIllinois Basin

296 million tons per year carbon

dioxide emissions in the Illinois Basin

from fixed sources

~40,548 20-ton truckloads of liquid CO2/day

FutureGen: NearFutureGen: Near--Zero EmissionZero EmissionCoalCoal--Fired Electric GenerationFired Electric Generation

FutureGen is a multifaceted demonstration of coal gasification, electricity generation, hydrogen production, and carbon sequestrationSequestration = CO2 capture + transport + storageIllinois offers storage = geological sequestrationpotential over a wide area of the Illinois Basin

COCO22 Injection: Caprock/Seal IntegrityInjection: Caprock/Seal Integrity

Sandstone Reservoir

Shale Seal

Shale Seal

Mattoon and Tuscola Mattoon and Tuscola FutureGen SitesFutureGen Sites

Plant SitesInjection Sites

Predominantly farm landOutstanding community

support for FutureGenFamiliarity with

industrial facilities and coal mining or quarryingExcellent sequestration

option on site or 10 mi via pipeline

Sequestration at Mattoon and TuscolaSequestration at Mattoon and Tuscola

Mt. Simon SandstoneEau Claire Shale

Illinois Basin Stratigraphic

ColumnMaquoketa Shale

New Albany Shale

Mississippian sandstone and carbonate oil reservoirs

St. Peter Sandstone

Pennsylvanian coal seams

adsorption on coal

CO2 EOR in mature fields

major saline reservoirs

from Leetaru, 2004

adsorption on shale

Mt. Simon Sandstone ReservoirMt. Simon Sandstone Reservoir

4,143 ft

8,467 ft• Mt. Simon Sandstone is used for natural gas storage in Champaign County, IL at 4,000 to 4,200 ft

• Mt. Simon core has been recovered from a few deep exploration wells, such as this sample from near Salem, IL at 8,467 drilled in 1966

Sand grain

Pore space

CO2 Storage in Sandstone Reservoir Pore Space

Pin head

Reservoir Caprock (shale seal)Reservoir Caprock (shale seal)

Pin head

High Porosity

Low Porosity

Mt. Simon after 120 YearsMt. Simon after 120 Years

80 years of injection40 years shut-in

Saline Reservoir Capacity:• 19-77 Gt Illinois• 29-115 Gt Illinois Basin

FutureGen for Illinois: Current StatusFutureGen for Illinois: Current Status

FutureGen Industrial Alliance formally announcedSeptember 13, 2005Alliance led by 10 coal and utility companiesJuly 25, 2006: Two Illinois sites and two Texas sites finalists from among 12 sites in 7 statesNEPA Environmental Impact Statement public meetingsin June 07Final results of NEPA due Fall 07Alliance makes final selection ~ Dec 07-Jan 08Illinois’ effort led by the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity and its Office of Coal Development

Illinois Seeking FutureGen and Facilitating Illinois Seeking FutureGen and Facilitating IGCC, Carbon Sequestration, and COIGCC, Carbon Sequestration, and CO22 EOREOR

Illinois Office of Coal Development leading Illinois’ FutureGen team; IN and PA formally endorse Illinois sitesIL SB 1704 provides liability protection for the Alliance and establishes monitoring responsibility at ISGSIllinois Office of Coal Development supporting IGCC projects with grants, bonding, and cofunding Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, a DOE regional sequestration partnershipIllinois working across state agencies to attract more IGCC projects that use abundant Illinois coal and are optimized for carbon sequestrationIllinois seeking public-private partnership to develop a CO2pipeline backbone to deliver CO2 from these projects to Illinois oil fields

www.isgs.uiuc.edu

www.sequestration.org