Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Carbon Emissions: A Different … · 2016-08-11 · percent...
Transcript of Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Carbon Emissions: A Different … · 2016-08-11 · percent...
Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Fossil Fuels, Energy Efficiency, and Carbon Emissions:Carbon Emissions:
A Different Future?A Different Future?Robert J. Finley
Illinois State Geological SurveyChampaign, Illinois
Governor’s Pollution Prevention AwardsOctober 25, 2007Chicago, Illinois
Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline
Energy demand growthGlobal overview of fossil fuel reservesChanges in the global energy sceneFutureGen: what is it?Carbon sequestration
Sources of InformationSources of Information
BP Statistical Review, London (BP)Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington, D.C.U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)International Energy Agency, Paris (IEA)U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)Midwest Geological Sequestration ConsortiumChevron Corporation
Key ObservationsKey Observations
The world is on an “energy express train” with respect to expanding use of conventional fossil fuelsDeveloping countries are pursuing living standards and industrialization with impacts that are just beginning to be globally feltCoal is abundant, but we need to solve coal’s emissions and climate issues through new technology like IGCC and FutureGenGlobally, we are adding 70 million people per year and 450 million additional vehicles are expected by 2030
World Energy Projections: 2020World Energy Projections: 2020--2030*2030*
Oil demand growth will reach 104 mmbd in 2020, and 118 mmbd in 2030, up from 84.5 mmbd in 2006*Coal demand will grow 47 percent from 4.8 bty to 7.0 bty by 2030In 2002, 1.6 of 6.1 billion people lacked electricity; in 2030 1.4 billion of 8.3 billion people may still lack electricity**
*EIA 2007, BP, 2006 **IEA, 2001, 2002
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980World Marketed Energy Use by Fuel, 1980--20252025(quadrillion Btu)(quadrillion Btu)
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
34%
27%
9%Renewables
Nuclear
26%
5%
Share of WorldTotal
History Projections
38%
24%
24%8%
6%
EIA International Energy Outlook 2006
Regional Shares in WorldRegional Shares in WorldEnergy Demand, percentEnergy Demand, percent
(IEA, 2004)(IEA, 2004)
203016,325 Mtoe
Developed Countries
Transition Economies
Developing
3852
10
48
200210,200 Mtoe
43
9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Fuel,1960-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
History ProjectionsLiquid Fuels
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewables
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
World Oil ReservesWorld Oil Reserves(BP, 2004)(BP, 2004)
Known world oil reserves will last 43 years at current rates of consumption
The Middle East holds about 63 percent of proven reserves while North America holds about 6 percent
Proved Oil Reserves End 2005Proved Oil Reserves End 2005(BP, 2006)(BP, 2006)
742.7
140.5
U.S. Crude Oil Production by Source, 1990-2030(million barrels per day)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Lower 48 Onshore
Alaska
Deepwater Offshore
ProjectionsHistory
Total
Shallow Water Offshore
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption by Mode, 1980-2030 (quadrillion Btu)
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
ProjectionsHistory
Light-Duty Vehicles
Rail
Heavy-Duty Vehicles
Water
Air
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Net Imports, 1960-2030 (million barrels/day)
Consumption
Domestic Supply
Net Imports60%
61%
History Projections
EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
Net Oil Imports in the United States, China, Net Oil Imports in the United States, China, and India, 2003and India, 2003--2025 (million barrels/day)2025 (million barrels/day)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
United States
China
India
EIA International Energy Outlook 2006
World Natural GasWorld Natural GasReservesReserves
(BP, 2004)(BP, 2004)
Known world gas reserves will last 64 years at current rates of consumption
The former Soviet Union has 8 times the gas reserves of North America and the Middle East has 7 times
Proved Natural Gas Reserves End 2005Proved Natural Gas Reserves End 2005(BP, 2006)(BP, 2006)
72.13
64.01
14.84
U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source, 1990-2030(trillion cubic feet)
0
2
4
6
8
10
1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
Alaska
Lower 48 Non-Associated Unconventional
Lower 48 Non-Associated Offshore
Lower 48 Associated-Dissolved
Lower 48 Non-Associated Conventional Onshore
ProjectionsHistory
Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - Preliminary
Major Sources of Incremental U.S.Natural Gas Supply,
2005-2030 (trillion cubic feet)
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Growth in Alaskan Production
Growth inNon-AssociatedUnconventional
Growth in LNG Imports
Base Production (all sources)
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
(EIA, 2007)
World Coal ReservesWorld Coal Reserves(BP, 2005)(BP, 2005)
Known world coal reserves will last 312 years at current rates of consumptionThree areas of the world have “subequal”, major coal resources:
-Asia Pacific 297 billion tons-North America: 254 billion tons-Europe and Eurasia: 287 billion tons
Proved Coal Reserves End 2005Proved Coal Reserves End 2005(BP, 2006)(BP, 2006)
296.9287.1
254.4
50.3
Coal: An Old Fuel inCoal: An Old Fuel inAbundant SupplyAbundant Supply
(BP, 2004)(BP, 2004)
The United States:- holds 25 percent of world coal reserves- accounts for 22 percent of world production- accounts for 22 percent of world consumption
(“balance” between reserves, production, and use)
World Coal Demand by Sector,World Coal Demand by Sector,percent (IEA, 2004)percent (IEA, 2004)
1
79
812
Power Generation
Other
Industry
Residential
3
6916
12
2030 7,029 million tons2002 4,791 million tons
World Net Electricity Generation,World Net Electricity Generation,2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)2004, 2015, and 2030 (billion kilowatthours)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
North America OECD EuropeOECD Asia Non-OECD Europe and EurasiaNon-OECD Asia Middle EastAfrica Central & South America
2004 2015 2030
International Energy Outlook 2007
9,455
6,969
11,120 11,169
13,190
17,174
OECDNon-OECD
(EIA, 2007)
World EnergyWorld Energy--Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 19901990--2030 (billion metric tons)2030 (billion metric tons)
05
1015
202530
3540
4550
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Coal
Liquids
Natural Gas
Total
History Projections
(EIA, 2007)International Energy Outlook 2007
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
per capitaper dollar real GDP
U.S. Energy Use per Capita and per Dollar ofReal Gross Domestic Product, 1970-2030
(index, 1970 = 1)
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
History
Projections
(EIA, 2007)
Carbon Dioxide Emission Intensity, 1980-2030(metric tons per million 2000 dollars of GDP)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
486 in 2010
407 in 2020353 in 2030
(EIA, 2007)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 1980-2030
(million metric tons)
6,214 in 2010
6,944 in 2020
HistoryProjections
Annual Energy Outlook 2007
7,950 in 2030
(EIA, 2007)
Illinois BasinIllinois Basin
296 million tons per year carbon
dioxide emissions in the Illinois Basin
from fixed sources
~40,548 20-ton truckloads of liquid CO2/day
FutureGen: NearFutureGen: Near--Zero EmissionZero EmissionCoalCoal--Fired Electric GenerationFired Electric Generation
FutureGen is a multifaceted demonstration of coal gasification, electricity generation, hydrogen production, and carbon sequestrationSequestration = CO2 capture + transport + storageIllinois offers storage = geological sequestrationpotential over a wide area of the Illinois Basin
COCO22 Injection: Caprock/Seal IntegrityInjection: Caprock/Seal Integrity
Sandstone Reservoir
Shale Seal
Shale Seal
Mattoon and Tuscola Mattoon and Tuscola FutureGen SitesFutureGen Sites
Plant SitesInjection Sites
Predominantly farm landOutstanding community
support for FutureGenFamiliarity with
industrial facilities and coal mining or quarryingExcellent sequestration
option on site or 10 mi via pipeline
Sequestration at Mattoon and TuscolaSequestration at Mattoon and Tuscola
Mt. Simon SandstoneEau Claire Shale
Illinois Basin Stratigraphic
ColumnMaquoketa Shale
New Albany Shale
Mississippian sandstone and carbonate oil reservoirs
St. Peter Sandstone
Pennsylvanian coal seams
adsorption on coal
CO2 EOR in mature fields
major saline reservoirs
from Leetaru, 2004
adsorption on shale
Mt. Simon Sandstone ReservoirMt. Simon Sandstone Reservoir
4,143 ft
8,467 ft• Mt. Simon Sandstone is used for natural gas storage in Champaign County, IL at 4,000 to 4,200 ft
• Mt. Simon core has been recovered from a few deep exploration wells, such as this sample from near Salem, IL at 8,467 drilled in 1966
Sand grain
Pore space
CO2 Storage in Sandstone Reservoir Pore Space
Pin head
Reservoir Caprock (shale seal)Reservoir Caprock (shale seal)
Pin head
High Porosity
Low Porosity
Mt. Simon after 120 YearsMt. Simon after 120 Years
80 years of injection40 years shut-in
Saline Reservoir Capacity:• 19-77 Gt Illinois• 29-115 Gt Illinois Basin
FutureGen for Illinois: Current StatusFutureGen for Illinois: Current Status
FutureGen Industrial Alliance formally announcedSeptember 13, 2005Alliance led by 10 coal and utility companiesJuly 25, 2006: Two Illinois sites and two Texas sites finalists from among 12 sites in 7 statesNEPA Environmental Impact Statement public meetingsin June 07Final results of NEPA due Fall 07Alliance makes final selection ~ Dec 07-Jan 08Illinois’ effort led by the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity and its Office of Coal Development
Illinois Seeking FutureGen and Facilitating Illinois Seeking FutureGen and Facilitating IGCC, Carbon Sequestration, and COIGCC, Carbon Sequestration, and CO22 EOREOR
Illinois Office of Coal Development leading Illinois’ FutureGen team; IN and PA formally endorse Illinois sitesIL SB 1704 provides liability protection for the Alliance and establishes monitoring responsibility at ISGSIllinois Office of Coal Development supporting IGCC projects with grants, bonding, and cofunding Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium, a DOE regional sequestration partnershipIllinois working across state agencies to attract more IGCC projects that use abundant Illinois coal and are optimized for carbon sequestrationIllinois seeking public-private partnership to develop a CO2pipeline backbone to deliver CO2 from these projects to Illinois oil fields
www.isgs.uiuc.edu
www.sequestration.org