Post on 10-Feb-2022
U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
http://www.dallasfed.org
Change in Nonfarm Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
Thousands of jobs
-900
-600
-300
0
300
600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 07 release, May = 1753-year average
Initial Claims for Unemploymentand Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor http://www.dallasfed.org
Percent Unemployment
4-week MAThousands of Initial Claims
Recession
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
10.5
250
325
400
475
550
625
700
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Initial Claims (Jun 06 release, Jun 01=365) Unemployment Rate (Jun 07 release, May=7.8)
New Orders for Durable Goods
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
Billions of Dollars
Recession
70
95
120
145
170
195
220
245
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Durable Goods (Jun 05 release, Apr = 222.7) Excl. Transportation (Jun 05 release, Apr = 155.3)
ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index
Index
Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org
30
40
50
60
70
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 05 release, May = 56.5
U.S. Imports and Exports
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
Billions of Dollars
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Recession Exports (Jun 04 release, Apr = 186.7) Imports (Jun 04 release, Apr = 229.4)
Purchasing Managers’ Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org
Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 03 release, May = 49
Real Value of the Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
March 1973 = 100
* Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden
70
80
90
100
110
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Exchange Value of the US$ (Jun 03 release, May=84.2)
US$ vs Major Currencies* (Jun 03 release, May=86.9)
Consumer Confidence/Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org
Index
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recession Confidence (May 28 release, May = 76.2) Sentiment (May 31 release, May = 84.5)
Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = -0.18
3-year average
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = 0.07
3-year average
Personal Income
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = -0.04
3-year average
Retail Sales
1-month % change
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = 0.1
3-year average
Retail Sales, Excluding Autos
1-month % change
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = -0.25
3-year average
Real GDP
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change, annualized
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 30 release, Q1 = 2.43-year average
Housing Starts and PermitsThousands
Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org
300
700
1,100
1,500
1,900
2,300
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Recession Housing Starts (May 16 release, Apr = 853)Permits Issued (May 24 release, Apr = 1005)
Home Sales
Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors http://www.dallasfed.org
Thousands of Existing HomesThousands of New Homes
Recession
2,800
3,800
4,800
5,800
6,800
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
New Home Sales (May 23 release, Apr = 454) Existing Home Sales (May 22 release, Apr = 4380)
Index of Leading Economic Indicators
Source: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org
Index
70
80
90
100
110
120
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recession Leading Index (May 17 release, Apr = 95)
Industrial Production
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 15 release, Apr = -0.5
3-year average
Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
Percent
63
67
71
75
79
83
87
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recession CU Rate (May 15 release, Apr = 75.9) Historic Average (1948-present)
WAGES AND PRICES
http://www.dallasfed.org
Average Hourly Earnings
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 07 release, May = 0.053-year average
Nonfarm Business Productivity
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change, annualized
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 05 release, Q1 = 0.53-year average
Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change, annualized
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 05 release, Q1 = -4.33-year average
ISM Manufacturing Prices Index
Index
Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 03 release, May = 49.5
Commodity Prices
Source: Commodity Research Bureau http://www.dallasfed.org
1967=100, EOP
Recession
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Jun 04 release, May=855.5)
KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Jun 04 release, May=524.4)
PCE Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = -0.253-year average
Core PCE Price Index
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 31 release, Apr = 0.01
3-year average
Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 16 release, Apr = -0.373-year average
Core Consumer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 16 release, Apr = 0.053-year average
Producer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 15 release, Apr = -0.73-year average
Core Producer Price Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 15 release, Apr = 0.13-year average
Employment Cost Index
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org
1-quarter % change
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Apr 30 release, Q1 = 0.33-year average
FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS
http://www.dallasfed.org
0102030405060708090
100
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr.--1-yr. Treasury yield spread
Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org
Percent
Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months.
Extraordinary monetary policy*
Recession Neftci Recession Probability
*Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on short-term interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries.
-1.92-2.98
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation
Target Fed Funds Rate (Jun 07) less SPF Expected Inflation (May 16)
End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation
Target Fed Funds Rate (Jun 07) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (May 31)
Real Federal Funds RatePercent
Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia;U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan
http://www.dallasfed.org
Short-Term Interest RatesPercent
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Target Fed Fund Rate (Jun 07 = 0.125)3-Month T-Bill Rate (Jun 07 = 0.04)Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Jun 06 = 0.75)3-month LIBOR (Jun 07 = 0.275)
Long-Term Interest RatesPercent
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Mortgage Rate (week of Jun 06 = 3.91)10-year T-Bond (week of Jun 07= 2.12)10-year T-Bond (Jun 07 = 2.17)
Bond SpreadsPercent
Merrill Lynch’s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody’s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent
Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch http://www.dallasfed.org
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Jun 07 = 1.96)Daily (Jun 07 = 2.37)BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Jun 07 = 0.89)Daily (Jun 07 = 0.87)
Yield CurvePercent
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
3-Month T-Bill Rate (week of Jun 07) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Jun 07 = 0.04)1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Jun 07) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Jun 07 = 0.14)10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Jun 07) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Jun 07 = 2.17)
Money Supply: M1
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change, annualized
-30
0
30
60
90
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Jun 06 release, Apr = 33.423-year average
Money Supply: M2
Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org
1-month % change, annualized
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
May 23 release, Apr = 7.793-year average