faculty appointments promotions and titles at geisel school of

U.S. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

http://www.dallasfed.org

Change in Nonfarm Employment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.dallasfed.org

Thousands of jobs

-900

-600

-300

0

300

600

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 07 release, May = 1753-year average

Initial Claims for Unemploymentand Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor http://www.dallasfed.org

Percent Unemployment

4-week MAThousands of Initial Claims

Recession

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10.5

250

325

400

475

550

625

700

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Initial Claims (Jun 06 release, Jun 01=365) Unemployment Rate (Jun 07 release, May=7.8)

New Orders for Durable Goods

Source: Bureau of the Census http://www.dallasfed.org

Billions of Dollars

Recession

70

95

120

145

170

195

220

245

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Durable Goods (Jun 05 release, Apr = 222.7) Excl. Transportation (Jun 05 release, Apr = 155.3)

ISM Non-Manufacturing Activity Index

Index

Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org

30

40

50

60

70

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 05 release, May = 56.5

U.S. Imports and Exports


Billions of Dollars

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Recession Exports (Jun 04 release, Apr = 186.7) Imports (Jun 04 release, Apr = 229.4)

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Source: Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org

Index

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 03 release, May = 49

Real Value of the Dollar

Source: Federal Reserve Board http://www.dallasfed.org

March 1973 = 100

* Euro Area, Canada, Japan, UK, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden

70

80

90

100

110

120

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Exchange Value of the US$ (Jun 03 release, May=84.2)

US$ vs Major Currencies* (Jun 03 release, May=86.9)

Consumer Confidence/Sentiment

Consumer Sentiment: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan

Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org

Index

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession Confidence (May 28 release, May = 76.2) Sentiment (May 31 release, May = 84.5)

Nominal Personal Consumption Expenditures

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.dallasfed.org

1-month % change

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

May 31 release, Apr = -0.18

3-year average

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures


1-month % change

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

May 31 release, Apr = 0.07

3-year average

Personal Income


1-month % change

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


3-year average

Retail Sales

1-month % change


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


3-year average

Retail Sales, Excluding Autos

1-month % change


-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


3-year average

Real GDP


1-quarter % change, annualized

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

May 30 release, Q1 = 2.43-year average

Housing Starts and PermitsThousands


300

700

1,100

1,500

1,900

2,300

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Recession Housing Starts (May 16 release, Apr = 853)Permits Issued (May 24 release, Apr = 1005)

Home Sales

Source: Bureau of the Census, National Association of Realtors http://www.dallasfed.org

Thousands of Existing HomesThousands of New Homes

Recession

2,800

3,800

4,800

5,800

6,800

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New Home Sales (May 23 release, Apr = 454) Existing Home Sales (May 22 release, Apr = 4380)

Index of Leading Economic Indicators

Source: The Conference Board http://www.dallasfed.org

Index

70

80

90

100

110

120

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession Leading Index (May 17 release, Apr = 95)

Industrial Production


1-month % change

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


3-year average

Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate


Percent

63

67

71

75

79

83

87

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Recession CU Rate (May 15 release, Apr = 75.9) Historic Average (1948-present)

WAGES AND PRICES


Average Hourly Earnings


1-month % change

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 07 release, May = 0.053-year average

Nonfarm Business Productivity



-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 05 release, Q1 = 0.53-year average

Nonfarm Business Unit Labor Cost



-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

9

12

15

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 05 release, Q1 = -4.33-year average

ISM Manufacturing Prices Index

Index

Source : Institute for Supply Management ™ http://www.dallasfed.org

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 03 release, May = 49.5

Commodity Prices

Source: Commodity Research Bureau http://www.dallasfed.org

1967=100, EOP

Recession

100

300

500

700

900

1,100

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Metals (Jun 04 release, May=855.5)

KR-CRB Spot Commodity Price Index: Raw Industrials (Jun 04 release, May=524.4)

PCE Price Index


1-month % change

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

May 31 release, Apr = -0.253-year average

Core PCE Price Index


1-month % change

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


3-year average

Consumer Price Index


1-month % change

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Core Consumer Price Index


1-month % change

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

May 16 release, Apr = 0.053-year average

Producer Price Index


1-month % change

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Core Producer Price Index


1-month % change

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


Employment Cost Index


1-quarter % change

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Apr 30 release, Q1 = 0.33-year average

FINANCIAL-SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS


0102030405060708090

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Recession Probability Real-time Neftci probability calculated from 10-yr.--1-yr. Treasury yield spread

Source: Federal Reserve Board; calculations by FRB Dallas http://www.dallasfed.org

Percent

Crosses 70% threshold with a lead of between 5 and 18 months, and averaging 11 months.

Extraordinary monetary policy*

Recession Neftci Recession Probability

*Indicator properties of the yield curve may be distorted during this period due to the zero bound on short-term interest rates and Federal Reserve purchases of long-term Treasuries.

-1.92-2.98

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less SPF Expected Inflation

Target Fed Funds Rate (Jun 07) less SPF Expected Inflation (May 16)

End-of-Month Target Fed Funds Rate less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation

Target Fed Funds Rate (Jun 07) less U. of Michigan Expected Inflation (May 31)

Real Federal Funds RatePercent

Sources: Target Fed Funds Rate: Federal Reserve Board; SPF Expected Inflation: FRB Philadelphia;U. of Michigan Expected Inflation: Survey of Consumers, Survey Research Center, U. of Michigan


Short-Term Interest RatesPercent


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Target Fed Fund Rate (Jun 07 = 0.125)3-Month T-Bill Rate (Jun 07 = 0.04)Discount Window Primary Credit Rate (Jun 06 = 0.75)3-month LIBOR (Jun 07 = 0.275)

Long-Term Interest RatesPercent


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mortgage Rate (week of Jun 06 = 3.91)10-year T-Bond (week of Jun 07= 2.12)10-year T-Bond (Jun 07 = 2.17)

Bond SpreadsPercent

Merrill Lynch’s Yield on Low-Grade Corporate Bonds, Moody’s AAA and BAA Corporate Percent

Source: Moody’s Investors Service, Merrill Lynch http://www.dallasfed.org

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Low-Grade Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Jun 07 = 1.96)Daily (Jun 07 = 2.37)BAA Corporate less AAA Corporate (week of Jun 07 = 0.89)Daily (Jun 07 = 0.87)

Yield CurvePercent


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3-Month T-Bill Rate (week of Jun 07) 3-Month T-Bill Rate (Jun 07 = 0.04)1-year T-Bill Rate (week of Jun 07) 1-year T-Bill Rate (Jun 07 = 0.14)10-year T-Bond Rate (week of Jun 07) 10-year T-Bond Rate (Jun 07 = 2.17)

Money Supply: M1


1-month % change, annualized

-30

0

30

60

90

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jun 06 release, Apr = 33.423-year average

Money Supply: M2


1-month % change, annualized

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


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