"TODAY'S EL NINO WEATHER EVENT

…IS (AND IS NOT)…

BROUGHT TO YOU BY GLOBAL WARMING"

Dr. Paul J. Croft, SESS/CNAHS at Kean University

Disclaimer:

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and intended for educational use only.

How or Where to begin and Why…

Have you ever wondered or asked if that latest storm, heat/cold wave, or drought was due to either El Nino, Global Warming, or both?

How would we know or be able to establish?

Where would we begin to do so?

Why would we bother?

Croft – Nov 2015

The “Answers” appear to be…

How – Use data/observations; knowledge of the

atmosphere and its interactions with oceans in NWP

and Climate Models for predictive purposes

DeterministicCroft – Nov 2015

The “Answers” appear to be…

Where – Occurs Globally but focus is on Pacific Ocean

“Sloshing” Ocean

Disruption/Change in atmospheric circulations

Empirical & Statistical

Information

Croft – Nov 2015

The “Answers” appear to be…

Why – Understanding and forecasts provide for planning of

weather and climate scenarios with relevance to environment

and our interactions (emergency/environmental management)

ProbabilisticCroft – Nov 2015

What’s been observed…

El Nino (part of an “ENSO” cycle; three phase pattern-circulations)

Large Variability (time and space) for an elastic system

Exacerbate Climate Zone Variability (e.g., TX, CA)

Multiple Impacts (worldwide)

Croft – Nov 2015

Clarify the basics first…

Weather and Climate

Atmospheric Properties (structure and gas/radiation laws)

Atmospheric Phenomena (key variables: T, P, H2O, & motion)

Atmospheric Events (key systems and processes; create hazards)

=

Croft – Nov 2015

Provides further clarification…

Weather versus Climate

Short versus Long term (who/how defined)

Measurements versus Statistics (time and space)

Damages, Costs, & Lives “versus” Patterns (behaviors of ATM)

It’s all about “Expectations” and HazardsCroft – Nov 2015

El Nino (a “part” of ENSO)

ENSO is…

Complex interaction between oceans and atmosphere

Three-phased phenomenon (La Nina, Neutral, El Nino)

Global and highly variable (strength, timing, duration)

“Hyper” Charged ATM?

Croft – Nov 2015

El Nino (a “part” of ENSO)

El Nino is…

‘Warm Phase’ (central/eastern Pacific Ocean waters)

Shifting of N/S and E/W semi-perm pressure systems

Creates shift in the Jet Stream & Storm Tracks/Intensity

“Other” circulation shifts/changes (stratosphere too)

Thus El Nino is truly a part of our

normal “Expectations” from

a Climate and Weather

point of view…

Heat/Energy Transfers

(Moisture too!)

Croft – Nov 2015

El Nino and NJ Weather…

“Perfect Together” – Really? (Not!)

Highly variable (in terms of conditions experienced)

Highly variable (spatially across state and hazards frequencies)

Recall…

Deterministic,

Empirical/Statistical,

Probabilistic, and

“Scenario-prep”

Spatial Distributions

Timing and Duration

Croft – Nov 2015

As per the CPC (NOAA)

Precipitation Temperature

But limited/no information of day-to-dayCroft – Nov 2015

An “average” NJ Winter?

Temperature Regimes

Source: ONJSC

Precipitation Regimes

Source: ONJSC

Croft – Nov 2015

Let’s “add” Global Warming…

Mainly Troposphere (lowest layer of atmosphere)

Unequal in horizontal spread globally (high LATs focus)

Vertical change complicated, variable, & “rest” of the atmospheric layers

are involved; also land/sea interactions

On-going, historic (i.e. it can be traced), & multi-faceted (not “merely

about” carbon dioxide; doubling); volcanic, solar aspects

Can be conceptualized and modeled (scenarios)

Can incorporate “un-natural” inputs/pathways (quantify “humans”)

Can be predicted, diagnosed, & used for planning (management/response)

Bottom Line: More Heat/Energy (& Moisture) available over time

However: Are the system interactions elastic, inelastic, linear, or non-linear?

Croft – Nov 2015

Climate Modeling/Prediction

Complex process and resolution (t/space)

Provides numerical information (quantitative)

Not always able to provide sufficient details (qualitative)

Some assessments of changes in frequencies & intensities

of Atmospheric variables and “events” we call storms

Adds yet another level of

complication and uncertainty so

must think in terms of SCENARIOS

More Heat/Energy &

Moisture TransfersCroft – Nov 2015

Scenario Building…

ASK Questions…

Who, What, Where, How,

When, and Why

What outcomes desired?

Avoid-Mitigate-Prevent

(Uncertainties)

Croft – Nov 2015

Outcomes and Caveats…

Socio-Economic Pressures

Political Ideologies and Policies

Cultural and Ethical Manifestations

Community of Stakeholders (and various interests)

Realities of Infrastructure (age, construct/fix)

Realities of Incentives/Costs (e.g., WTP)

Realities of Motivation, Planning, & Execution (action)

= Capacity to Respond (given limitations) to a Moving Target

Croft – Nov 2015

So be Practical and Operational…

Weather => Climate = “obvious” (means/extremes)

Climate => Weather = not simply “working backwards”

Global Warming => Weather = frequencies, intensities

Global Warming => Climate = directional, ATM changes, “new” pathways/processes (and/or more permanent)

El Nino => weather = “obvious” (inconsistent), compounding

Climate => El Nino = not “abundantly clear” (plus/minus)

Global Warming => El Nino = similar to “GHE Enhanced”

Croft – Nov 2015

Steer “Clear” of simple/extreme…

No action

Do everything

Wait and see

They don’t know

It costs too much and won’t work

It’s a good thing, really…

Croft – Nov 2015

Today’s El Nino Weather Event…

…is indeed brought to you by the

ATMOSPHERE (and our interaction with it)

…and SESS/CNAHS/KU

Croft – Nov 2015

Disclaimer:

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and intended for educational use only.