ENSO-Nov-2015 Croft
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Transcript of ENSO-Nov-2015 Croft
"TODAY'S EL NINO WEATHER EVENT
…IS (AND IS NOT)…
BROUGHT TO YOU BY GLOBAL WARMING"
Dr. Paul J. Croft, SESS/CNAHS at Kean University
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and intended for educational use only.
How or Where to begin and Why…
Have you ever wondered or asked if that latest storm, heat/cold wave, or drought was due to either El Nino, Global Warming, or both?
How would we know or be able to establish?
Where would we begin to do so?
Why would we bother?
Croft – Nov 2015
The “Answers” appear to be…
How – Use data/observations; knowledge of the
atmosphere and its interactions with oceans in NWP
and Climate Models for predictive purposes
DeterministicCroft – Nov 2015
The “Answers” appear to be…
Where – Occurs Globally but focus is on Pacific Ocean
“Sloshing” Ocean
Disruption/Change in atmospheric circulations
Empirical & Statistical
Information
Croft – Nov 2015
The “Answers” appear to be…
Why – Understanding and forecasts provide for planning of
weather and climate scenarios with relevance to environment
and our interactions (emergency/environmental management)
ProbabilisticCroft – Nov 2015
What’s been observed…
El Nino (part of an “ENSO” cycle; three phase pattern-circulations)
Large Variability (time and space) for an elastic system
Exacerbate Climate Zone Variability (e.g., TX, CA)
Multiple Impacts (worldwide)
Croft – Nov 2015
Clarify the basics first…
Weather and Climate
Atmospheric Properties (structure and gas/radiation laws)
Atmospheric Phenomena (key variables: T, P, H2O, & motion)
Atmospheric Events (key systems and processes; create hazards)
=
Croft – Nov 2015
Provides further clarification…
Weather versus Climate
Short versus Long term (who/how defined)
Measurements versus Statistics (time and space)
Damages, Costs, & Lives “versus” Patterns (behaviors of ATM)
It’s all about “Expectations” and HazardsCroft – Nov 2015
El Nino (a “part” of ENSO)
ENSO is…
Complex interaction between oceans and atmosphere
Three-phased phenomenon (La Nina, Neutral, El Nino)
Global and highly variable (strength, timing, duration)
“Hyper” Charged ATM?
Croft – Nov 2015
El Nino (a “part” of ENSO)
El Nino is…
‘Warm Phase’ (central/eastern Pacific Ocean waters)
Shifting of N/S and E/W semi-perm pressure systems
Creates shift in the Jet Stream & Storm Tracks/Intensity
“Other” circulation shifts/changes (stratosphere too)
Thus El Nino is truly a part of our
normal “Expectations” from
a Climate and Weather
point of view…
Heat/Energy Transfers
(Moisture too!)
Croft – Nov 2015
El Nino and NJ Weather…
“Perfect Together” – Really? (Not!)
Highly variable (in terms of conditions experienced)
Highly variable (spatially across state and hazards frequencies)
Recall…
Deterministic,
Empirical/Statistical,
Probabilistic, and
“Scenario-prep”
Spatial Distributions
Timing and Duration
Croft – Nov 2015
As per the CPC (NOAA)
Precipitation Temperature
But limited/no information of day-to-dayCroft – Nov 2015
An “average” NJ Winter?
Temperature Regimes
Source: ONJSC
Precipitation Regimes
Source: ONJSC
Croft – Nov 2015
Let’s “add” Global Warming…
Mainly Troposphere (lowest layer of atmosphere)
Unequal in horizontal spread globally (high LATs focus)
Vertical change complicated, variable, & “rest” of the atmospheric layers
are involved; also land/sea interactions
On-going, historic (i.e. it can be traced), & multi-faceted (not “merely
about” carbon dioxide; doubling); volcanic, solar aspects
Can be conceptualized and modeled (scenarios)
Can incorporate “un-natural” inputs/pathways (quantify “humans”)
Can be predicted, diagnosed, & used for planning (management/response)
Bottom Line: More Heat/Energy (& Moisture) available over time
However: Are the system interactions elastic, inelastic, linear, or non-linear?
Croft – Nov 2015
Climate Modeling/Prediction
Complex process and resolution (t/space)
Provides numerical information (quantitative)
Not always able to provide sufficient details (qualitative)
Some assessments of changes in frequencies & intensities
of Atmospheric variables and “events” we call storms
Adds yet another level of
complication and uncertainty so
must think in terms of SCENARIOS
More Heat/Energy &
Moisture TransfersCroft – Nov 2015
Scenario Building…
ASK Questions…
Who, What, Where, How,
When, and Why
What outcomes desired?
Avoid-Mitigate-Prevent
(Uncertainties)
Croft – Nov 2015
Outcomes and Caveats…
Socio-Economic Pressures
Political Ideologies and Policies
Cultural and Ethical Manifestations
Community of Stakeholders (and various interests)
Realities of Infrastructure (age, construct/fix)
Realities of Incentives/Costs (e.g., WTP)
Realities of Motivation, Planning, & Execution (action)
= Capacity to Respond (given limitations) to a Moving Target
Croft – Nov 2015
So be Practical and Operational…
Weather => Climate = “obvious” (means/extremes)
Climate => Weather = not simply “working backwards”
Global Warming => Weather = frequencies, intensities
Global Warming => Climate = directional, ATM changes, “new” pathways/processes (and/or more permanent)
El Nino => weather = “obvious” (inconsistent), compounding
Climate => El Nino = not “abundantly clear” (plus/minus)
Global Warming => El Nino = similar to “GHE Enhanced”
Croft – Nov 2015
Steer “Clear” of simple/extreme…
No action
Do everything
Wait and see
They don’t know
It costs too much and won’t work
It’s a good thing, really…
Croft – Nov 2015
Today’s El Nino Weather Event…
…is indeed brought to you by the
ATMOSPHERE (and our interaction with it)
…and SESS/CNAHS/KU
Croft – Nov 2015
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and intended for educational use only.