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California Energy Commission
2009 IEPR WorkshopCalifornia Energy Demand 2010-2020
Staff Draft Forecast
Statewide Forecast Results forElectricity and Natural Gas
June 26, 2009
Chris Kavalec
Demand Analysis Office
Chris.Kavalec@energy.state.ca.us
- -
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California Energy Commission
a orn a nergy emanForecasts
• Draft• Revised
– Released August 3, 2009
– Workshop August 17, 2009
• Uncommitted forecast: to be completed afterthe revised forecast
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California Energy Commission
Staff Draft CED Forecast
• : www. y. . v _ y ydocuments/index.html#062609
– Statewide results for electricity and natural gas
–
– Results and forecast comparisons for 5 majorplanning areas
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Summary of Results
• Significantly reduced electricity consumptionvs. previous forecast (for 2007 IEPR)
– Economy
– Increased efficiency impacts – ower start ng po nt
• Drop in peak electricity demand not as
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California Energy Commission
Demand Forecast Methodology
8 Planning Areas for Electricity• Burbank/Glendale
• Imperial Irrigation District
• LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP)• Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E)
• Pasadena
• San Diego Gas and Electric (SDG&E)
•
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Demand Forecast Methodology
Individual sector models for:• Residential
• Commercial
• Industrial
• Agricultural
• , ,utilities (TCU) and street lighting
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Demand Forecast StructureGENERAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC ACTIVITY
RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIALAGRICULTURE / WATER PUMPING
FloorspaceModel Urban
WaterPumping
Dairy and
Livestock
Crop
Production
Thermal
Processes
Motors,
Lighting,HVAC
HousingModel
Ener Ener
ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST SUMMARY MODEL
Model Model
PEAK DEMAND AND HOURLY LOAD FORECAST MODEL
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NATURAL GAS FORECAST
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California Energy Commission
Changes in Demand Forecast
• Residential lighting broken out as separateend use
• New commercial floor space projection
methodology• Higher compliance with 2005 Commercial
Lighting Standards
• Increased effort to capture impacts of utilityefficiency programs
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California Energy Commission
Reduced Economic Growth
• Projected real personal income down 5.7%statewide relative to previous forecast by2018
• Projected total employment down 5.9%statew e re at ve to prev ous orecast y2018
• ey econom c n ca ors s ow s or - ermdrop followed by slower long-term growth
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California Energy Commission
Rate Scenarios
• 3 rate scenarios for electricity and natural gas – Low-rate case: constant rates
– Mid-rate case: 15 % higher for electricity and
10% higher for natural gas by 2020 vs. 2010 – High-rate case: 30% higher by 2020 vs. 2010
• Affects residential, commercial, and industrial
sectors• Using low-rate case for comparison to
prev ous e ec r c y orecas
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California Energy Commission
a ew e ec r c y onsump onLow-Rate Case
Short-term drop, lower long-term growth
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Electricity Consumption per CapitaLow-Rate Case
Declining throughout the forecast period
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California Energy Commission
tatew e ectr c ty eaLow-Rate Case
Rate of growth higher than consumption
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ea ectr c ty per ap taLow-Rate Case
Less decline compared to consumption
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Statewide Electricity Forecast
• Consumption down by 9.2% by 2018 vs. CED2007
• Peak down by 5% in 2018
• Growth rates 2010-2018: consumption 0.8%vs. 1.2% for CED 2007; peak 1.1% vs. 1.3%for CED 2007
• Economy responsible for most of thedifference
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auses o e uce onsumpt on n2010: 2009 Draft vs. CED 2007
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auses o e uce onsumpt on n2018: 2009 Draft vs. CED 2007
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California Energy Commission
tatew e ersona ncomeMirrors Consumption
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tatew e mp oymentMirrors Consumption
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tatew e ectr c ty onsumpt on ySector: Low-Rate Case
ost o t e re uct on s n res ent a an commerc a
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tatew e ectr c ty ea y ectorLow-Rate Case
Most of the reduction is in residential and commercial
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Statewide Electricity by Sector
• Residential consumption down by 13.1% in2018 vs. CED 2007
• Residential peak down 4.2% in 2018
• Commercial consumption down by 10.8% in2018
• Commercial peak down by 8.0% in 2018
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tatew e ectr c ty onsumpt on yPrice Scenario
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California Energy Commission
tatew e ectr c ty ea y r ceScenario
68,000
70,000
Low‐Rate Case
Mid‐Rate Case
66,000
High‐Rate Case
M W
62,000
64,000
60,000
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
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ource: a orn a nergy omm ss on,
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California Energy Commission
Electricity Price Response
• Consumption down 1.8% in high-rate case in2020 vs. low-rate case, down 1% in mid-ratecase
• Peak down 1.7% and 0.9% in 2020
• orrespon s o a pr ce e as c y o - overa
• Commercial sector price elasticity = 15%
= -• We propose using mid-rate case for revised
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Self-Generation Forecast
• Accounts for all of the major programs – Emerging Renewables Program (ERP)
– California Solar Initiative (CSI)
– Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) – New Solar Homes Partnership (NSHP)
– Other misc.
• - yindustrial users
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Self-Generation Predictive Models
• Based on estimated payback periods andcost-effectiveness
• First model, still being tested by staff, predicts
residential photovoltaic system adoption• Plan is to apply these models for 2011
forecast
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California Energy Commission
ustrat ve es ent a ystemSimulation (MW installed)
Adoptions increase quickly as system prices drop Electricity Rate (2007 $kWh)
$ 0.08 $0.10 $0.12 $0.14 $0.16 $0.18 $0.20 $0.221 000PhotovoltaicSystem Price(2007 $/kW)
$3,000 20 63 104 124 139 176 206 260$5,000 4 6 18 48 67 84 98 108$7,000 3 3 5 6 18 42 58 72
,
Source: California Energy Commission, 2009*Assumes a discount rate of 3 percent.
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California Energy Commission
End-User Natural Gas Forecast
• By planning area: PG&E, SCG, SDG&E, andother
• Does not include natural gas used by utilities
or others for electric generation• Mid and high cases from Scenario Analyses
of California’s Electricity System: Preliminary
Report , CEC-200-2007-010-SD, June 2007
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California Energy Commission
Natural Gas Forecast-High Rate Case
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California Energy Commission
atura as orecast y r ceScenario
13,500
13,700
Low (constant) Rates
13,100
13,300
Mid Rates
High Rates
M M T h e r m s
12,700
12,900
12,500
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 4
2 0 1 5
2 0 1 6
2 0 1 7
2 0 1 8
2 0 1 9
2 0 2 0
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Source: California Energy Commission, 2009