Post on 24-Jul-2020
Economic outlookPresentation to IFAC Council
Economic Division
28 September 2018
External assumptions
2
3
Oil prices up significantly in 2018…
Source: Brent crude oil spot and futures markets
Avg. 2015= $53
Avg. 2016 = $45
AVG. 2017 = $55
Avg. 2018 = $73
Avg. 2019 = $75
Avg. 2020 = $71
Avg. 2021 = $68
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Oil Prices ($ per barrel)
4
Appreciation in trade-weighted value of the euro in the first half of 2018…
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
302
00
1Q
1
20
01
Q3
20
02
Q1
20
02
Q3
20
03
Q1
20
03
Q3
20
04
Q1
20
04
Q3
20
05
Q1
20
05
Q3
20
06
Q1
20
06
Q3
20
07
Q1
20
07
Q3
20
08
Q1
20
08
Q3
20
09
Q1
20
09
Q3
20
10
Q1
20
10
Q3
20
11
Q1
20
11
Q3
20
12
Q1
20
12
Q3
20
13
Q1
20
13
Q3
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q3
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q3
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q3
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q3
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q3
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q3
y-o
-y %
ch
ange
y-o
-y %
ch
ange
USD -yoy (lhs) GBP -yoy (lhs) HCI (rhs)
Economic growth in Ireland’s key trading partners remains reasonably solid...
Sources:
1. GDP: US: Bureau of Economic Analysis; UK: Office for National Statistics; Euro Area: Eurostat
2. PMI: Markit
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
q-o
-q g
row
th
US
US GDP PMI
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
q-o
-q g
row
th
UK
UK GDP PMI
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
q-o
-q g
row
th
Euro Area
Euro Area GDP PMI
5
Economic outlook
GDP surprised on the upside in H1 with strong contributions from both MDD and NX…
7
Source: CSO
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
y-o
-y g
row
th
GDP MDD
However, GDP growth continues to be inflated by onshoring activity…
8
Source: CSO
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
y-o
-y g
row
th
Royalty Imports Net royalty imports Total exports (current prices)
Significant upward revision to short-term GDP forecast…
9
Source: DoF calculations
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2018 2019 2020 2021
Difference in contributions relative to SPU18, pp.
Stocks UNX UDD GDP
Front-loading of Brexit impact…
10
Source: DoF calculations
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
con
trib
uti
on
to
gro
wth
MDD MNX Stocks GDP
Acceleration in QNA consumption in the first half of the year…
11
Source: CSO, ESRI-KBC, CBI
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
201
7 Q
1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
y-o
-y g
row
th
Retail Sales Core Retail
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
110
201
6 Q
1
201
6 Q
2
201
6 Q
3
201
6 Q
4
201
7 Q
1
201
7 Q
2
201
7 Q
3
201
7 Q
4
201
8 Q
1
201
8 Q
2
y-o
-y g
row
th
Ind
ex
Consumer sentiment
Total Consumer credit growth
Consumer credit growth (1 - 5 years)
Total consumption model…
12
Source: CSO, DoF calculations
3.5
3.2
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Consumption Fit Consumption Forecast Model Forecast Actual
C = 0.01 + 0.5*disp_inc - 0.07*unemp - 0.12*ecmR^2 = 0.59
Significant acceleration in modified investment in recent quarters…
13
Source: CSO, DoF calculations
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
Contributions to Investment, pp
B&C Core M&E Aircraft Intangibles GDFCF Mod Investment
14
Strong demand in CRE market …
Source: CBRE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Sq M
Dublin Office Market Take-Up
H1 Take-up H2 Take-up
Vacancy Rate
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
Annual Dublin Office Rent Inflation
15
Other B&C set to exceed its highest share on record…
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
as a
sh
are
of
mo
dif
ied
GN
I
Other B&C Other B&C LR average (1995-2017)
16
Residential investment converging towards LR average over the medium-term…
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
as a
sh
are
of
mo
dif
ied
GN
I
Dwellings
Dwellings LR average (1995-2017)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
Tho
usa
nd
s
House completions
Completions-BUD 2019
Eqm demand
Completions-SPU
17
Modified investment ratio above the long-run average throughout the forecast horizon…
10
15
20
25
30
35
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
as a
sh
are
of
mo
dif
ied
GN
I
Modified Investment
MI MI LR average (1995-2017)
18
Double-digit growth in goods exports driven by the pharma sector in H1…
Source: CSO
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
y-o
-y c
on
stan
t p
rice
s
QNA
Customs
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 July
y-o
-y c
urr
ent
pri
ces
Customs
Pharma
Goods for processing
Weakest service exports performance since the beginning of the recovery…
Source: CSO
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018H2
y-o
-y g
row
th
SX (constant)SX (nominal)SX (nominal) exc. Royalties
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
y-o
-y g
row
th
Royalty exports
2.4 billion increase in H1(1.8 pp of GDP, 3.2 pp of SX)
21
Export models…
Source: CSO, DoF calculations
10.9
5.8
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
y-o
-y g
row
th
GX Fit Forecast - Model Forecast - Actual
GX = 0.3*GX(-1) - 0.3*REER + 2.0*FGDP + 34.1*dummy_2015R^2 = 0.81
3.3
5.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
SX FitForecast - Model Forecast - Actual
SX = 0.7*SX(-1) - 0.1*REER + 0.8*FGDPR^2 = 0.77
22
Significant acceleration in modified goods imports…
Source: CSO, DoF calculations
23
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
y-o
-y g
row
th
Customs
QNA
Modified goods
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2
y-o
-y g
row
th
Services
Core services
Import models…
Source: CSO, DoF calculations
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
y-o
-y g
row
th
Imports
Imports_forecast
Imports_MPM model
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
y-o
-y g
row
th
Modified Imports
Modified imports_forecast
Modified imports_MPM model
Modified imports_MFD model
24
Headline CA balance projected to remain in the double-digits over the medium-term…
24
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
per
cen
t o
f G
DP
Current account
Labour Market
Continued momentum in labour market…
Source: CSO LFS Source: Investec
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
0
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
un
emp
loym
ent
rate
(%
)
emp
loym
ent
gro
wth
, y-o
y (%
)
Employment Growth (lhs) SA unemployment Rate (rhs)
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Jan
-16
May
-16
Sep
-16
Jan
-17
May
-17
Sep
-17
Jan
-18
May
-18
Employment PMI
Manufacturing Employment Services Employment
Above 50 indicates expansion
26
Strong employment growth…
-12.0
-7.0
-2.0
3.0
8.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ann
ual
ch
ange
Modified Domestic Demand Actual Employment Growth Fitted Employment Growth
∆𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡 = −0.177 + 0.563( ∆ 𝑀𝐷𝐷) + 0.142(∆𝐸𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑡−1)
27
27
Labour force growth…
Source: CSO LFS, Department Forecasts
-30-20-10
010
2030405060
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 2017 2018
per
son
s (0
00
s)
Demographic change Participation change Annual change in labour force
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
per
son
s (0
00
s)
Demographic change Participation change Annual change in labour force
28
Labour market forecasts…
Source: CSO LFS, Department Forecasts
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
% o
f la
bo
ur
forc
e
y-o
-y g
row
th
Employment growth (lhs) Unemployment rate (rhs)
29
Unemployment rate…
∆𝑈𝑅 = 0.621 − 0.230(∆ 𝑀𝐷𝐷) + 0.211(∆ 𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑡−1)
-12.0
-7.0
-2.0
3.0
8.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ann
ual
ch
ange
Modified Domestic Demand Actual change in UR Fitted change in UR
30
Wage outlook…
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ann
ual
gro
wth
(%
)
Actual COE per head Fitted COE per head
∆〖𝐶𝑂𝐸 𝑝𝑒𝑟 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑑〗_𝑡 =0.936 −0.387(2 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑙𝑎𝑔𝑔𝑒𝑑 ∆ 𝑈𝑅) +1.122(∆𝐻𝐼𝐶𝑃)
Wage outlook…
Source: CSO LFS, Department Forecasts/Workings
32
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
y-o
-y g
row
th (
%)
Wage Bill
Employees Pay per employee Wage bill
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
y-o
-y g
row
th (
%)
Pay per employee
Hours Pay per hour Pay per employee
32
Loss of competitiveness…
Source: CSO LFS, Department Forecasts/Workings
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
y-o
-y g
row
th (
%)
Real hourly pay growth GNP per hour worked
-5.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
y-o
-y g
row
th (
%)
Nominal unit labour costs (GDP based)
Price Developments
Rising energy prices driving the recent pickup in headline inflation…
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Jan-2
01
6
Mar-2
01
6
May-2
01
6
Jul-2
01
6
Sep
-20
16
No
v-20
16
Jan-2
01
7
Mar-2
01
7
May-2
01
7
Jul-2
01
7
Sep
-20
17
No
v-20
17
Jan-2
01
8
Mar-2
01
8
May-2
01
8
Jul-2
01
8
Euro Area Ireland
Heatmap of HICP Components Ireland V’s Euro Area Inflation
35
Drag from NEIG expected to wane while core services pick-up…
Average 2019 = 1.2%Average 2017 = 0.3% Average 2018 = 0.7%
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
HICP Quarterly profile
NEIG Unprocessed Processed Rents Energy Core Services HICP Core HICP
36
Household income
Strong labour market conditions continuing to support household income…
Source: CSO, DoF
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n t
o y
-o-y
gro
wth
Change in real personal disposable income
PCD
other householdincome
net cashtransfers
capital income
labour
real disposableincome
38
Medium-term decline in savings ratio driven by Brexit…
Source: CSO, DoF
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
ISA savings rate LR average
39
Macroeconomic outlook
Budget 2019- Macroeconomic Outlook…
Year-on-year % change 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023GDP 7.4 4.2 3.6 2.5 2.6 2.7
GNP 5.8 3.9 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.5
Nominal GDP 9.3 6.1 5.4 4.4 4.4 4.5
Personal Consumption 3.5 3.0 2.6 2.1 2.2 2.4Govt Consumption 3.4 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
Investment -8.9 7.1 5.7 4.4 4.3 4.3Exports 7.0 5.6 4.8 3.8 3.7 3.6Imports 0.9 6.1 5.3 4.5 4.3 4.1
HICP 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.9 2.4 2.6
GDP Deflator 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7Employment 3.0 2.7 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.7Unemployment (rate) 5.8 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.0
Contributions to growth (p.p)*
Domestic Demand -0.6 2.7 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.9
Change in Stocks 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Net Exports 7.5 1.5 1.3 0.7 0.8 0.8Modified Domestic Demand (excl stocks) 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.5 1.6
Modified Net Exports 3.9 1.9 1.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
41
External
• Hard-Brexit
• Trade protectionism/trade-war
• Global financial market conditions
• Geopolitical factors
Domestic
• Concentrated production base
• Overheating pressures
Risks –firmly tilted to the downside…
42
Fan Chart of Real GDP…
42
Note: MDD is included for 2015
Supply-side
• Two estimates produced based on GDP and Domestic GVA
• GDP based models
– Extended HP with private sector credit growth, employment in construction, core CPI
– Extended HP with unemployment rate and net migration
• Domestic GVA based models
– Univariate KF: Trend; random walk with drift, cycle; AR(2)
– Multivariate KF: Univariate Model + Unemployment rate
– Multivariate KF: Univariate Model + Construction employment share
– Multivariate KF: Univariate Model + Private sector credit growth
– Multivariate KF: Univariate Model + House price growth
• Output gap estimates taken as mid point of estimates
Alternative estimates
44
Alternative output gap measure: GDP, Extended HP
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
K L
Average of K and L model estimates
45
Alternative output gap measures : Domestic GVA, Kalman filters
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Univariate KF Domestic GVA House Prices
PSCG Unemployment Rate
Const emp share
Midpoint of range
46
Technical changes
• Filters run to 2020 in line with the Commission’s approach
• TFP model
• Revised CUBS series
• 2017 dummy variable continues to be included
Application of harmonised methodology…
47
48
Preliminary Budget 2019 supply-side outlook…
Note: NAWRU based on ML NKP modelling approach to 2020 with mechanical extension thereafter. Non-centering adjustment factor of -0.43 applied. Trend TFP estimated using Bayesian bivariate Kalman filter based on actual TFP including specification of dummy with revised CUBS inputs.
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Potential output growth 7.4 4.6 4.5 4.3 3.5 3.3 3.3
contribution from
Labour 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.4
Capital -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5
TFP 5.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4
Real GDP 270.6 290.7 302.9 313.7 324.0 333.9 344.1
Real Potential Output 273.4 286.1 299.0 311.7 322.6 333.2 344.1
Output Gap -1.01 1.63 1.29 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
Contributions to Output Gap…
*Note: The capital stock is not de-trended as full utilisation is assumed. 49
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TFP L OG
Annex
Quarterly profiles – real growth
60
110
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP
20
25
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
C
10
30
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
I6
8
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
G
80
105
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
X60
80
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
M
-2Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2016 2017 2018 2019
S
51
52
Labour market - Quarterly profiles (2018-2019)
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Employment
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Unemployment Rate
2,100
2,150
2,200
2,250
2,300
2,350
2,400
2,450
2,500
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Labour Force
60.0
60.5
61.0
61.5
62.0
62.5
63.0
63.5
64.0
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Participation Rate >15
53
Personal Consumption Deflator - Quarterly profiles (2015-2019)
Source: CSO, DoF
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q4
Personal Consumption Deflator - Quarterly Profile
PCD HICP
54
Export Price Deflator - Quarterly profiles (2015-2019)
Source: CSO, DoF
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q4
GX SX TX
55
Import Price Deflator - Quarterly profiles (2015-2019)
Source: CSO, DoF
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q4
GM SM TM