African economic outlook

African Economic African Economic Outlook 2007Outlook 2007

Measuring Measuring the Pulse of Africathe Pulse of Africa

Nicolas Pinaud,

OECD Development Centre

经合组织发展中心

Standard Chartered & the OECD Development Centre

AFRICA AND CHINA: ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS PERSPECTIVES

Shanghai16 May 2007

11 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?

22 African Economic Performance: Multifaceted GrowthAfrican Economic Performance: Multifaceted Growth

33 Africa and GlobalizationAfrica and Globalization

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African Economic OutlookAfrican Economic OutlookMeasuring the Pulse of Africa

• Joint publication of the AfDB and the OECD Development Centre, supported by the EC – 6th edition.

• Mobilising a network of in-country African experts & collaboration with WB, IMF, bilateral donors, …

• A resource for policy makers, aid practitioners, investors, researchers, students, …

• A tool for policy dialogue among African policy makers (nationally, APRM, …) and with their partners (EC, G8, OECD)

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African Economic OutlookAfrican Economic OutlookAn innovative product, an evolving process

• Comprehensive, comparative and independent analysis of 31 countries and short-term macroeconomic forecasts.

• Annual focus

• 2003: Privatization

• 2004: Access to energy

• 2005: SME development

• 2006: Transport infrastructure

• 2007: Access to drinking water and sanitation

• Statistical annex, including innovative indicators

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Coverage 2007: 31 African countriesCoverage 2007: 31 African countries

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AlgeriaLibya Egypt

Mauritania

Mali

Niger

Chad

Dem.Rep.Congo

Sudan

Central AfricanRepublic

Equatorial Guinea

GabonCongo

Cameroon

Angola

Guinea-BissauGuinea

Sierra Leone

Liberia

Côted'Ivoire

Tunisia

BurkinaFaso

Ghana

NigeriaTogo

Ethiopia

Somalia

Djibouti

Eritrea

Kenya

Tanzania

Mozambique

SouthAfrica

Botswana

Zimbabwe

Namibia

Zambia

Swaziland

Lesotho

Malawi

Uganda

Burundi

Rwanda

Madagascar

SenegalGambia

Morocco

91% of GDP91% of GDP

86% of population86% of population

AEO 2007AEO 2007

Sao Tome et principe

Mauritius

Comores

Cape verde

Benin

11 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?What is the African Economic Outlook Project?



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Africa continues to grow strongly

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006(e) 2007(p) 2008(p)

grow

th r

ate AfricaAfrica

Total OECD

7Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, OECD

The commodity boom has played an important role

50

90

130

170

210

250

290

330

370

410

450

490

janv-0

1

juil-0

1

janv-0

2

juil-0

2

janv-0

3

juil-0

3

janv-0

4

juil-0

4

janv-0

5

juil-0

5

janv-0

6

juil-0

6

janv-0

7

Petroleum Copper Aluminium Gold

8Source: Source: WorldbankWorldbank 20072007

Vibrant & stable growth in oil-producing countries in 2006

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3

4

5

6

7

8

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

(e)

20

07

(p)

20

08

(p)

Rea

l GD

P G

row

th

Net Oil Exporters Africa

0 5 10 15 20

Equatorial GuineaChad

GabonAlgeria

CameroonLibya

NigeriaDRC

EgyptCongoSudan

Angola

Real GDP Growth 2006

Source: African Economic Outlook 2007Source: African Economic Outlook 2007

Best performingperforming net oil exporters in 2006exporters in 2006(%)

(%)

Growth gaining momentum in oil importers: Good harvests and booming metal prices…

10

3

4

5

6

7

8

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

(e)

20

07

(p)

20

08

(p)

Oil Importing Countries Africa

0 5 10

MozambiqueTanzania

Burkina FasoMali

BotswanaUganda

Net Oil ExportersMorocco

GhanaZambia

AfricaTunisia

NamibiaNet Oil Importers

South AfricaKenya

Average Real GDP Growth 2001/2006Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007

Best Performing net oil importers in 2001-2006

Rea

lGD

P gr

owth

(%)

(%)

…but also fewer bullets & more ballots

11Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007, Political IndicatorsSources: African Economic Outlook 2007, Political Indicators

Presidential elections in Presidential elections in 20062006

BeninBenin

Cape Verde*Cape Verde*

ChadChad

DRC*DRC*

GambiaGambia

MadagascarMadagascar

Sao Tome et Principe*Sao Tome et Principe*

SeychellesSeychelles

Zambia*Zambia*

UgandaUganda

*Parliamentary elections as well*Parliamentary elections as well

Despite strong growth rate, progress towards the MDGs remains slow

12Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007Sources: African Economic Outlook 2007

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Halve the % ofpeople suffering

from hunger

Ensure that allchildren can

Completeprimary school

EliminateGender

disparity in alllevels of

education

Reduce by 2/3under 5

mortality rates

Reducematernal

mortality by 3/4

Halt andreverse spreadof Tuberculosis

Halve the % ofpeople withoutaccess to safe

water

Satisfactory Non Satisfactory

11 What is the African Economic Outlook Project?What is the African Economic Outlook Project?



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Africa & globalisation Noteworthy developments…

New actors, new trends• New foreign direct investors trade partners :

– the Asian Drivers (China & India), trade & direct investment; – investors from Africa into Africa (South Africa, North Africa, Nigeria)

• Yield-hungry portfolio investors: Africa, the new investment / credit frontier?

Source: World bank, Global Development FinanceSource: World bank, Global Development Finance

Africa and Globalization: ... a vulnerable continent?

• Africa’s share in world trade and investment remains minimal (1.5 % & 4% resp.) and concentrated in raw materials

• Partnering with the Asian drivers: opportunities / risk of further specialization and of raising the bar for competing in labor intensive industries

15Source: UN COMTRADESource: UN COMTRADE

Africa and Globalization: ... Investment in Oil and South Africa

• Foreign investment in Africa is concentrated in oil exporting countries and in South Africa

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

% o

f Tot

al FD

I to

Afric

a

% o

f Wor

ld FD

I

Total FDIs to Sub-Saharan Africa

Total FDIs to Northern Africa

FDIs to Sub-Saharan Main Oil Producers* & South Africa as a % of total FDIs to Africa (right axis)Source: UNCTAD, World Investment ReportSource: UNCTAD, World Investment Report

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The higher the index, the more diversified the economyThe higher the index, the more diversified the economy

Source: African Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook Source: African Diversification Index, African Economic Outlook 20072007

Africa and Globalization: ... Slow progress in diversification

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Angola

Chad

Eq. Guinea

Nigeria

Botswana

Sudan

Mali

Mozambique

Algeria

Zambia

Cameroon

Ethiopia

DRC

Africa

Least diversified

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Africa

Ghana

Cote d'Ivoire

Lesotho

Senegal

Uganda

Mauritius

Kenya

Tanzania

Egypt

South Africa

Tunisia

Morocco

Most diversified

How can Africa become an activeplayer in globalization?

• Increase capacity for trade and investment:maintain macroeconomic stability, improving business environment, promote diversification

• Use external resources more effectively:– Capitalize on oil and minerals windfall gains to invest in health,

education and access to basic services– Use ODA as a catalyst: aid for trade is an instrument for enhancing

Africa’s integration in the global economy.

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Aid must be used strategically

0.33

0.22

0.26

0.36

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1990

1991

1992

1993

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1997

1998

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2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

ODA

($ b

illio

n 20

04)

% o

f GN

I

ODA as a % of GNI (left scale)

Total ODA(right scale)

Total ODA to Africa(right scale)

0.33

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Aid for trade is on the rise …and Africa is the 2nd largest recipient

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African economic outlook

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