Transcript of Econometrics Three Broad Economic Themes Where is the economy today? –It’s more than inflation &...
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- Econometrics Three Broad Economic Themes Where is the economy
today? Its more than inflation & unemployment! Where is the
economy going? Its more than Potential GDP growth? What is your
place & what is the significance of this picture of the economy
to you? Your job and your future is dependent on the trends and
directions of this American Economy!
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- Working 2002 Data Has this changed in 4 years? Unemployment
5.8% Inflation Rate 1.6% Median Weekly Salary: $610 (Half earn more
& half earn less) Median Weekly Salary for Men: $685 Median
Weekly Salary for Women: $531 Average Hourly salary: $14.77 US Work
Force 138,600,000 April 2002
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- US Data April 2003 to 2006: Inflation CPI up 3.6% since April
2003: 199.8 v 183.5 (1982-4=100) Education up 6.4% Energy(gas) up
11% Medical care up 13% Food up 8.6% Clothing down 1.5% Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
5/15/2006http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
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- US Data 2006/2004/2000 Working Total Private/Nonfarm
Employment: 135,068,000 v 130,878,000 v 133,308,000 Women in the
work force: 65,042,000 v 63,972,000 v 64,395,000 Average work week:
33.9 v 33.6 v 34.1 Average Hourly Pay: $16.61 v $15.50 v $14.29
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5/15/2006
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- USA: April 2006 v 2005 Total US Employment: 143,688,000 v 141.1
million Total US Labor Force: 150,811,000 v 148.8 million Labor
Force participation rate: 74.1% v 73.3% Discouraged workers:
1,200,000 v 1,400,000 Unemployed workers: 7,123,000 v
7,700,000
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- Unemployment Demographics April 06 (4.7) v 05 (5.2%) The
unemployment rates for the major worker groups: adult men 4.2% v
4.4% adult women 4.3% v 4.6% teenagers 14.6% v 17.7% whites 4.4% v
4.4% blacks 9.4% v 10.4% Hispanics or Latinos 5.4% v 6.4% Asians
was 4.1% v 3.9%
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- Starting Salaries 2006 Chemical Engineer: $ 50,000 - 56,000
Computer Engineer: $ 49,000 - 55,000 Civil Engineer: $ 38,400 -
45,000 Economics/Finance: $ 34,000 - 45,000 Accounting: $37,000 -
45,000 Nursing: $ 34,000 - 42,000 History: $ 27,000 - 37,000
English: $ 22,500 - 35,000 Now whos better? Visual & Performing
Arts: $ 23,000 - 34,000 First Year Teacher: $27,000 - 34,500 GHS
30,000
http://www.jobweb.com/resources/library/Salary_and_Benefits/Starting_Salary_51_01.htm
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- US Data 2005/6 Biggest Job Gains Construction: up 32.3% Thank
You Federal Reserve! Service & Temps Jobs: up 26.4% & 18.4%
Educational Services: up 26.4% Day Care! Health Care Industry: up
21.4% Food & Hotel Service up 16.5% Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics 5/15/2006
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- Families and Work Families with children: 35.4 million 90.3%
had at least one parent employed in 2006 In 60.7% of two-parent
families both parents worked In 30.5 percent of two- parent
families, only the father was employed, and, in 5.5 percent, only
the mother worked 71.1 % of Mothers Work
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- Working Mothers 71.1 percent of mothers work 53.7 percent of
mothers with children under 1 year work Unemployment Rate for
unmarried mothers with children under age 18: 10.3% My mom made me
poor!
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- Bureau of Labor Statistics Fact 2006 The labor force
participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected
to increase. The number of women in the labor force is projected to
grow by 14.3 percent, faster than the 10-percent growth projected
for men. Women's share of the labor force is expected to increase
by 1 percent, from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent by
2012.
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- Decisions Made Age 14 - 24 Smoking, Drinking, and Drug use
Driving Habits Work & Job Attitudes Sex Education Career
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- Labor Market Theory The Real World Will Get You! Human Capital
Education = Income Sorting Mechanism Hoops Radical View Rich Dad
Poor Dad Dual Labor Market Good Job v Bad Job Market
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- Human Capital, Sorting Mechanism, Radical Approach, Good
Job/Bad Job Market Theories of Labor
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- Titled Hopeful Parents The Far Side 1989 Unfortunately 2005
Didnt Turnout Like the Cartoon X-box? Tyler?!?
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- Unemployment by Education Level BLS April 2006 Less than a high
school diploma of 12,474,000: 8.4% unemployed High school graduates
of 38,265,000 : 4.4% unemployed Some college or associate degree of
34,860,000 : 3.9% unemployed Bachelor's degree and higher of
40,788,000 : 2.5% unemployed Where are you going class of
2006?
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- Top 10 Bachelors Degrees Issued to Guys in 2000 1.Engineering
48,582* 2.Business 44,510* 3.Biology 20,536* 4.Communications
19,631 5.Psychology 17,867 6.Accounting 16,192* 7.Teaching 15,987*
8.History 15,666 9.Political Science 15,609 10.Criminal Justice
14,624 Total Male Graduates: 519,956 *More issued in India, China,
and South Korea!
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- Top 10 Bachelors Degrees Issued to Girls in 2000 1.Psychology
51,507 2.Teaching K-8 50,289 3.Business 42,426 4.Nursing 38,894
5.Communications 29,794 6.Biology 26,518 7.English 25,379
8.Accounting 21,726 9.Education 17,925 10.Sociology 17,067 Total
Female Graduates: 664,450
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- Women Graduate From High School, Tech School & College at
Higher Rates than Men! A Womens Dilemma A Guys.
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- Tech School Data 600,000+ Grads Incomplete on Demographics of
Men, Women, and Degree Sorry not a lot of research done!
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- Associate Degree Candidates $ Business: $26,891 Includes
accounting, finance, marketing, general business, and MIS
(Management Information Systems). Computer Science: $32,022
Includes computer science, computer programming, and information
sciences. Engineering Technology: $36,449 Includes chemical, civil,
computer, electrical, industrial, and mechanical engineering
technologies. BLS: An associate or bachelor's degree is the most
significant source of post- secondary education or training for 6
of the 10 fastest growing occupations.
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- Ranked Job Categories in the US 1850 1.Farmers 2.Laborers
3.Hired Hands/Farm Laborers 4.Managers & Proprietors
5.Carpenters 6.Family Workers 7.Shoemaker/Shoe Repair
8.Salesman/Sales Clerks 9.Blacksmiths 10.Miners
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- Ranked Job Categories in the US 1900 1.Farmers 2.Laborers
3.Farm Laborers 4.Maids & Domestics 5.Family Workers 6.Managers
& Proprietors 7.Salesman/Sales Clerks 8.Carpenters 9.Miners
10.Truck & Cart Drivers
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- Ranked Job Categories in the US 1960 1.Manufacturing Workers
2.Clerical Staff 3.Salesman/Sales Clerks 4.Managers &
Proprietors 5.Typists & Secretaries 6.Farm Laborers 7.Farmers
8.Maids & Domestics 9.Teachers 10.Waiters & Waitresses
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- Ranked Job Categories in the US 1990 1.Managers &
Proprietors 2.Clerks & Clerical Staff 3.Salesmen & Sales
Clerks 4.Laborers 5.Typists & Secretaries 6.Teachers 7.Cashiers
8.Truck Drivers 9.Janitors 10.Waiters & Waitresses & Cooks
I my job! GHS
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- Fastest Growing Professions in USA by 2010 1.Computer Engineer
2.Computer Support Specialist 3.Systems Analyst 4.Database
Administrator 5.Desktop Publishing Specialist 6.Paralegal &
Legal Assistants 7.Personal & Home Healthcare aides 8.Medical
Assistants 9.Social and Human Service Assistants 10.Physician
Assistants If a job category is growing rapidly and few people can
do it, what happens to its pay?
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- Jobs with the greatest Percentage Growth in USA by 2010
1.Retail Sales Clerk 2.Systems Analyst 3.Cashiers 4.Managers &
Assistant Managers 5.Truck Drivers 6.Office Clerks 7.Registered
Nurses 8.Computer Support Specialists 9.Personal Care Aides
10.Teachers Aides If a job is in high demand, but many people can
do it with little training, its wage will be? Wage is dependent on
MRP!!!
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- Education is Income! Less than 8 th grade$11,000/ yr 8 th Grade
Grads$13,000/yr 9 11 th Grade$16,727/yr High School Grad$24,500/yr
Tech School Grad$31,000/yr 1- 3 years College$32,000/yr College
Grads$44,000/yr $440,000 $520,000 $669,080 $980,000 $1,240,000
$1,280,000 $1,760,000
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- Family Income USA 9.8% $100,000+ 8.9%$75-99,999 19%$50-74,999
16.3% $35-49,999 13%$25-34,999 14.4%$15-24,999 18.6%