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Econometrics Three Broad Economic Themes Where is the economy today? Its more than inflation & unemployment! Where is the economy going? Its more than Potential GDP growth? What is your place & what is the significance of this picture of the economy to you? Your job and your future is dependent on the trends and directions of this American Economy!

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Working 2002 Data Has this changed in 4 years? Unemployment 5.8% Inflation Rate 1.6% Median Weekly Salary: $610 (Half earn more & half earn less) Median Weekly Salary for Men: $685 Median Weekly Salary for Women: $531 Average Hourly salary: $14.77 US Work Force 138,600,000 April 2002

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US Data April 2003 to 2006: Inflation CPI up 3.6% since April 2003: 199.8 v 183.5 (1982-4=100) Education up 6.4% Energy(gas) up 11% Medical care up 13% Food up 8.6% Clothing down 1.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/home.htm 5/15/2006http://www.bls.gov/home.htm

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US Data 2006/2004/2000 Working Total Private/Nonfarm Employment: 135,068,000 v 130,878,000 v 133,308,000 Women in the work force: 65,042,000 v 63,972,000 v 64,395,000 Average work week: 33.9 v 33.6 v 34.1 Average Hourly Pay: $16.61 v $15.50 v $14.29 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5/15/2006

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USA: April 2006 v 2005 Total US Employment: 143,688,000 v 141.1 million Total US Labor Force: 150,811,000 v 148.8 million Labor Force participation rate: 74.1% v 73.3% Discouraged workers: 1,200,000 v 1,400,000 Unemployed workers: 7,123,000 v 7,700,000

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Unemployment Demographics April 06 (4.7) v 05 (5.2%) The unemployment rates for the major worker groups: adult men 4.2% v 4.4% adult women 4.3% v 4.6% teenagers 14.6% v 17.7% whites 4.4% v 4.4% blacks 9.4% v 10.4% Hispanics or Latinos 5.4% v 6.4% Asians was 4.1% v 3.9%

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Starting Salaries 2006 Chemical Engineer: $ 50,000 - 56,000 Computer Engineer: $ 49,000 - 55,000 Civil Engineer: $ 38,400 - 45,000 Economics/Finance: $ 34,000 - 45,000 Accounting: $37,000 - 45,000 Nursing: $ 34,000 - 42,000 History: $ 27,000 - 37,000 English: $ 22,500 - 35,000 Now whos better? Visual & Performing Arts: $ 23,000 - 34,000 First Year Teacher: $27,000 - 34,500 GHS 30,000 http://www.jobweb.com/resources/library/Salary_and_Benefits/Starting_Salary_51_01.htm

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US Data 2005/6 Biggest Job Gains Construction: up 32.3% Thank You Federal Reserve! Service & Temps Jobs: up 26.4% & 18.4% Educational Services: up 26.4% Day Care! Health Care Industry: up 21.4% Food & Hotel Service up 16.5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 5/15/2006

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Families and Work Families with children: 35.4 million 90.3% had at least one parent employed in 2006 In 60.7% of two-parent families both parents worked In 30.5 percent of two- parent families, only the father was employed, and, in 5.5 percent, only the mother worked 71.1 % of Mothers Work

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Working Mothers 71.1 percent of mothers work 53.7 percent of mothers with children under 1 year work Unemployment Rate for unmarried mothers with children under age 18: 10.3% My mom made me poor!

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Bureau of Labor Statistics Fact 2006 The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase. The number of women in the labor force is projected to grow by 14.3 percent, faster than the 10-percent growth projected for men. Women's share of the labor force is expected to increase by 1 percent, from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent by 2012.

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Decisions Made Age 14 - 24 Smoking, Drinking, and Drug use Driving Habits Work & Job Attitudes Sex Education Career

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Labor Market Theory The Real World Will Get You! Human Capital Education = Income Sorting Mechanism Hoops Radical View Rich Dad Poor Dad Dual Labor Market Good Job v Bad Job Market

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Human Capital, Sorting Mechanism, Radical Approach, Good Job/Bad Job Market Theories of Labor

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Titled Hopeful Parents The Far Side 1989 Unfortunately 2005 Didnt Turnout Like the Cartoon X-box? Tyler?!?

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Unemployment by Education Level BLS April 2006 Less than a high school diploma of 12,474,000: 8.4% unemployed High school graduates of 38,265,000 : 4.4% unemployed Some college or associate degree of 34,860,000 : 3.9% unemployed Bachelor's degree and higher of 40,788,000 : 2.5% unemployed Where are you going class of 2006?

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Top 10 Bachelors Degrees Issued to Guys in 2000 1.Engineering 48,582* 2.Business 44,510* 3.Biology 20,536* 4.Communications 19,631 5.Psychology 17,867 6.Accounting 16,192* 7.Teaching 15,987* 8.History 15,666 9.Political Science 15,609 10.Criminal Justice 14,624 Total Male Graduates: 519,956 *More issued in India, China, and South Korea!

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Top 10 Bachelors Degrees Issued to Girls in 2000 1.Psychology 51,507 2.Teaching K-8 50,289 3.Business 42,426 4.Nursing 38,894 5.Communications 29,794 6.Biology 26,518 7.English 25,379 8.Accounting 21,726 9.Education 17,925 10.Sociology 17,067 Total Female Graduates: 664,450

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Women Graduate From High School, Tech School & College at Higher Rates than Men! A Womens Dilemma A Guys.

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Tech School Data 600,000+ Grads Incomplete on Demographics of Men, Women, and Degree Sorry not a lot of research done!

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Associate Degree Candidates $ Business: $26,891 Includes accounting, finance, marketing, general business, and MIS (Management Information Systems). Computer Science: $32,022 Includes computer science, computer programming, and information sciences. Engineering Technology: $36,449 Includes chemical, civil, computer, electrical, industrial, and mechanical engineering technologies. BLS: An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of post- secondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations.

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Ranked Job Categories in the US 1850 1.Farmers 2.Laborers 3.Hired Hands/Farm Laborers 4.Managers & Proprietors 5.Carpenters 6.Family Workers 7.Shoemaker/Shoe Repair 8.Salesman/Sales Clerks 9.Blacksmiths 10.Miners

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Ranked Job Categories in the US 1900 1.Farmers 2.Laborers 3.Farm Laborers 4.Maids & Domestics 5.Family Workers 6.Managers & Proprietors 7.Salesman/Sales Clerks 8.Carpenters 9.Miners 10.Truck & Cart Drivers

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Ranked Job Categories in the US 1960 1.Manufacturing Workers 2.Clerical Staff 3.Salesman/Sales Clerks 4.Managers & Proprietors 5.Typists & Secretaries 6.Farm Laborers 7.Farmers 8.Maids & Domestics 9.Teachers 10.Waiters & Waitresses

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Ranked Job Categories in the US 1990 1.Managers & Proprietors 2.Clerks & Clerical Staff 3.Salesmen & Sales Clerks 4.Laborers 5.Typists & Secretaries 6.Teachers 7.Cashiers 8.Truck Drivers 9.Janitors 10.Waiters & Waitresses & Cooks I my job! GHS

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Fastest Growing Professions in USA by 2010 1.Computer Engineer 2.Computer Support Specialist 3.Systems Analyst 4.Database Administrator 5.Desktop Publishing Specialist 6.Paralegal & Legal Assistants 7.Personal & Home Healthcare aides 8.Medical Assistants 9.Social and Human Service Assistants 10.Physician Assistants If a job category is growing rapidly and few people can do it, what happens to its pay?

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Jobs with the greatest Percentage Growth in USA by 2010 1.Retail Sales Clerk 2.Systems Analyst 3.Cashiers 4.Managers & Assistant Managers 5.Truck Drivers 6.Office Clerks 7.Registered Nurses 8.Computer Support Specialists 9.Personal Care Aides 10.Teachers Aides If a job is in high demand, but many people can do it with little training, its wage will be? Wage is dependent on MRP!!!

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Education is Income! Less than 8 th grade$11,000/ yr 8 th Grade Grads$13,000/yr 9 11 th Grade$16,727/yr High School Grad$24,500/yr Tech School Grad$31,000/yr 1- 3 years College$32,000/yr College Grads$44,000/yr $440,000 $520,000 $669,080 $980,000 $1,240,000 $1,280,000 $1,760,000

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Family Income USA 9.8% $100,000+ 8.9%$75-99,999 19%$50-74,999 16.3% $35-49,999 13%$25-34,999 14.4%$15-24,999 18.6%