Tackling wicked problems – doing research differently

Bruce Campbell, Program Director, CCAFS

1.  The global challenges 2.  Research approaches

1. Food security challenge

Best performance

Needs improvement

805 million undernourished people in the world today

e.g. Dry bean production 2050

Percentage change

RCP8.5

80 60 40 5 -5 -20 -40 -60 -80

2. Adaptation challenge

Natural Catastrophes Worldwide Climatological events (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (storm) Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami ….)

3. Mitigation challenge

19-29% global

GHGs from food

systems

Climate smart agriculture

Productivity

Mitigation Adaptation Resilience Emissions

Climate risk à long term adaptation

Global negotiators Regional economic communities

National policies Local planning Farmers fields

Global Alliance

for Climate-Smart

Alliance (GACSA)

Alternate-­‐We*ng-­‐and-­‐Drying    (AWD)  

30%  water  

20-­‐50%  GHG  

Without  compromising  yield  

•  Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering

•  Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 15.0

8.7

-42%

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16

t CO

2-eq

/ ha

4.9 3.9

-20%

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16

-22% -28%

6.0 4.7

6.4 4.6

Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying

Summer-Autumn

Winter-Spring

Sander et al. in press IRRI

AWD Conventional

No blanket recommendations

Not CSA CSA

Many practices/programs/policies can be CSA somewhere

But none are likely CSA everywhere

Rosenstock et al. unpublished

Context

2. Research approaches

2. Climate information services and climate-informed safety nets

4. Policies and institutions for climate-resilient food systems

1. Climate smart technologies, practices,

and portfolios

Regional Programs

Regional and Flagship Leaders: Agents of Change

Major Partners

10 Principles

1.  Negotiating complexity à Leverage 2.  Three-thirds principle 3.  Co-learning 4.  Measurable capacity enhancement 5.  Joining in 6.  Internal learning 7.  Active communicators 8.  ………

1. Negotiating complexity à Leverage

Priority setting

2. Three-Thirds Principle

Engaging with partners to decide what needs to be done and how ⅓

⅓ ⅓ Doing the actual research

Strengthening capacity of next users to use and communicate the results of the research in order to achieve outcomes

Fullana I, Palmer P, et al 2011

Policy & Institutional

Change

CSA Implimentation

Working with partners to drive implementation

Working with partners to understand what

works for policy Working with

partners to foster institutional change

Working with partners to understand what works

for implementation

3. Co-learning

”Climate-smart villages”

CGIAR

•  Improved index insurance products for > 50,000 farmers in India

Senegal: Climate information services

•  Male and female farmers •  Indigenous & scientific •  Probabilistic seasonal forecasts •  3.9 million farmers

4. Measurable capacity enhancement

•  Youth and Small Entrepreneur Self-Employment Fund, Ministry of Finance, Government of Nepal

•  Target: 10,000 women trained on CC adaptation

5. Joining in

•  Start from outcome sought by external stakeholders §  E.g. “enhance the resilience of 500 million people in

agriculture by 2030” •  Theory of change •  Program targets, indicators, annual milestones

2015 2016 2019 2025

4 +525  national  and  subnational  major  development  

initiatives  and  public  institutions  prioritize  and  inform  project  implementation  of  equitable  best  bet  CSA  options  using  CCAFS  science  and  decision  support  tools

2 +3

15  public-­‐private  actors  at  national  and  subnational  

levels  are  using  incentive  mechanisms  and  new  business  models/  markets  that  explicitly  promote  equitable  climate  smart  approaches  along  the  value  chain,  using  CCAFS  science

2 +315  major  regional,  national,  and  sub-­‐national  

institutions  develop  or  improve  major  demand-­‐driven,  equitable,  climate  informed  services  supporting  rural  communities  using  CCAFS  research  outputs

2 +215  mio.  US$  increase,  relative  to  2014,  in  research-­‐

informed  demand-­‐driven  investments  in  climate  services  for  agriculture  and  food  security  decision-­‐making,  based  on  CCAFS  science  and  engagement.

Flagship  Project  1

:  Fla

gship  Project  2

:  Clim

ate-­‐sm

art  a

gricu

ltural  

practic

es

30  mio.  farmers,  at  

least  12  mio.  of  

whom  are  women,  with  strengthened  

adaptive  capacity  and  food  security  as  a  

result  of  programmatic  CSA  investment.

Clim

ate  inform

ation  service

s  and

 climate-­‐inform

ed  sa

fety  nets 30  mio.  farmers  

(mio.),  12  mio.  of  

whom  are  women,  with  improved  

capacity  to  adapt  to  climate  related  risk  by  accessing  research-­‐informed  climate  

services  and/or  well-­‐targeted  safety  nets.  

6. Internal Learning

Results-based management

2025 Flagship Outcomes

2025 Regional Outcomes

2019 Flagship Outcomes

2019 Regional Outcomes

Cluster of Activities

Cluster of Activities

Cluster of Activities

Project

Project

Project

Project

Project

Project

Project

Project

Internal learning (cont)

•  Results-based management

•  Annual reflection

•  Ex-post Impact Assessment

7. Active communicators

Outcomes from Shamba Shape Up 428,566 farmers made changes to

maize or dairy practices US$ 24 million net economic impact in

25 counties

Conclusions

•  Scientific credibility •  Three major challenges •  Changing research models

Thank you

www.ccafs.cgiar.org @cgiarclimate @bcampbell_CGIAR