DOES ”SAFETY IN NUMBERS ” HYPOTHESIS REALLY COME TRUE IN CYCLING?

Kalle VaismaaTampere University of Technology, Finland

Safety in numbers Safety in numbers

= the hypothesis that, by being part of a large physical group or mass, an individual is less likely to be the victim of an accident, attack, or other bad event.

Safety in numbers Safety in numbers

Cycling in the Netherlands. Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat 2009.

Previous research results Previous research results

Jakobsen (2003):If cycling doubles number of accidents increases only 40 %

Robinson (2005):If cycling doubles risk of accidents increases only 34 %

Stipdonk & Reurings (2010):If cycling substitutes short car trips number of cyclists´ accidents increases

Results are conflicting Results are conflicting

City of Odense:Volume of cycling rose 20 % in 1999-2002 number of accidents fell 20 %

City of Freiburg:Volume of cycling rose 20 % in 2000´s number of accidents rose 20 %

Problems in research Problems in research

• Focus is in a short part of cycle way or in one intersection• Researches are based on statistics

• The quality of cycle circumstances are not taken into account

Safety in numbers

Two points of view Two points of view

Factors influence on cyclists´ safety

Factors influence on cycling volume

Connection

WHICH FACTORS INFLUENCE ON CYCLISTS´ SAFETY?

AwarenessAwarenessModerate

Urban structure and land useUrban structure and land useHighly

significantSignificant

Quality of bicycle infrastructureQuality of bicycle infrastructureHighly

significantHighly

significant

Traffic networkTraffic network Highly significant

Car traffic volumeCar traffic volumeSignificant

Legislation and educationLegislation and educationSignificant Significant

Improvement of bicycle

safety

Improvement of bicycle

safety

Growth of bicycle volume

Growth of bicycle volume

Safety in NumbersSafety in Numbers

Highly significant

Moderate

Moderate

Urban structure and land use Urban structure and land use

Dense city

Short trips

Less car traffic

Better safety

Litman & Fitzroy 2012; Garrick & Marshall 2008

Quality of cycling infrastructure Quality of cycling infrastructure

OR THIS?THIS

WHICH FACTORS INFLUENCE ON CYCLING VOLUME?

Pricing of other traffic modesPricing of other traffic modes Moderate

AwarenessAwarenessModerate

Urban structure and land useUrban structure and land useHighly

significantSignificant

Quality of bicycle infrastructureQuality of bicycle infrastructureHighly

significantHighly

significant

Traffic networkTraffic network Highly significant

Car traffic volumeCar traffic volumeSignificant

Legislation and educationLegislation and educationSignificant Significant

Marketing and facilitiesMarketing and facilities Significant

Improvement of bicycle

safety

Improvement of bicycle

safety

Growth of bicycle volume

Growth of bicycle volume

Safety in NumbersSafety in Numbers

Highly significant

Moderate

Moderate

11,0 km6,0 km

Groningen, the Netherlands

Traffic network Traffic network

Quality of cycling infrastructure

Speed

Smooth flow of cycling Route signage Speed compared

to car

Usability

Evenness Parking Convenience

Safety

Continuity of cycling network Cross-section Intersections

• Average speed• Number of stops

• Number and quality of signposts

• Short cuts• Benefits of a

cyclist

• Surface• Topography

• Quantity and quality• Interchange

• Social safety• Aesthetics

• The feeling of safety on the route• Visual guidance

• Width of the route• Curves, turns• Noise, emissions

• Safety• Directionality• Visibility

Quality of cycling infrastructure

Easy, fast, convenient and relaxing to cycle!

WHICH IS THE CONNECTION BETWEEN CYCLING SAFETY AND

VOLUME?

Pricing of other traffic modesPricing of other traffic modes Moderate

AwarenessAwarenessModerate

Urban structure and land useUrban structure and land useHighly

significantSignificant

Quality of bicycle infrastructureQuality of bicycle infrastructureHighly

significantHighly

significant

Traffic networkTraffic network Highly significant

Car traffic volumeCar traffic volumeSignificant

Legislation and educationLegislation and educationSignificant Significant

Marketing and facilitiesMarketing and facilities Significant

Improvement of bicycle

safety

Improvement of bicycle

safety

Growth of bicycle volume

Growth of bicycle volume

Safety in NumbersSafety in Numbers

Highly significant

Moderate

Moderate

Conclusion Conclusion

• The factors that influence on cycling volume and safety are the same for the most part

• The safety of cycling is mostly based on the quality of infrastructure

THANK YOU!

Kalle VaismaaTampere University of TechnologyTransport Research Centre Verne

kalle.vaismaa@tut.fi