© Thomas Ladegaard www.thomasladegaard.dk

© Thomas Ladegaard www.thomasladegaard.dk

Overblik – seks dage til valgetStillingen lige nu:

Helt lige?Afgørende

spørgsmålDet fundamentaleDeltagelsen, ground

gameOhioSidste øjebliks

overraskelser

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Ohio, Ohio, Ohio

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Hvorfor bruge tid på USA valg?

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Derfor er valget interessant Udenrigspolitik

Iran, Kina, AfghanistanØkonomisk politik

GældskriseGlobale initiativer

Grøn politikPolitisk kommunikation

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Betyder det noget, hvem der er præsident?

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Hvad skete der med Obama?

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Det fundamentale

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Det fundamentaleApproval ratings are everything in an election year. Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush all had approval ratings under 50%. The other thing they all had in common?  They all also lost their bid for a second term. Fifty Percent is the magic mark. If you’re above that heading into an election year, you’re chances remain promising. This precedent is not without exception. President Harry Truman ran and won reelection in 1948, with an approval rating in the high 30’s. However, that is the only exception.Every other president since polling like this began including Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush had an approval rating above 50% throughout their re-election year

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Efter konventerne

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Den første debat – og den anden

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The auto bailout

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De 47% og kodesprog

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W’s skygge

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Super pacs og 11 mia.

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Ideologi

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Værdipolitik

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Udenrigspolitik

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Demografien   Obama Romney

All registered voters 47 47

Men 42 52

Women 52 43

18 to 29 years 59 36

65+ years 40 56

White (non-Hispanic) 37 59

Black 90 5

Hispanic 69 25

Married 40 56

Not married 59 35

Kilde: Gallup

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Bradley effekten – Mormon effektenIn 1982, Bradley, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in California, had led in pre-election surveys, and was declared the winner in pollster Mervin Field’s exit polls.

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Det delte USA

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Det delte USA

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Ohio, Ohio, Ohio

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Svingstaterne - scenarierSTATE OBAMA ROMNEY

RCP AVERAGE 2008 2004 2000 Obamas vej til 270 Romneys vej til 270

Ohio (18) 48.6 46.7 Obama +1.9

Obama +4.6 Bush +2.1 Bush +3.5    

Florida (29) 47.6 49.0 Romney +1.4

Obama +2.8 Bush +5.0 Bush +0.1 Florida (29)

Virginia (13) 47.8 47.8 TieObama

+6.3 Bush +8.2 Bush +8.1   Virginia (13)

New Hampshire (4) 48.8 46.8 Obama +2.0

Obama +9.6 Kerry +1.3 Bush +1.3 New Hampshire (4)

Wisconsin (10) 49.3 47.0 Obama +2.3

Obama +13.9 Kerry +0.4 Gore +0.2 Wisconsin (10)  

Michigan (16) 48.8 44.8 Obama +4.0

Obama +16.4 Kerry +3.4 Gore +5.2 Michigan (16)

Pennsylvania (20) 49.5 44.8 Obama +4.7

Obama +10.3 Kerry +2.5 Gore +4.2 Pennsylvania (20)  

North Carolina (15) 46.2 49.2 Romney +3.0

Obama +0.3 Bush +12.4 Bush +12.8 North Carolina (15)

Iowa (6) 49.0 46.7 Obama +2.3

Obama +9.5 Bush +0.7 Gore +0.3 Iowa (6)  

Colorado (9) 47.8 47.8 TieObama

+9.0 Bush +4.7 Bush +8.4 Colorado (9)

Nevada (6) 50.0 47.6Obama

+2.4Obama +12.5 Bush +2.6 Bush +3.5 Nevada (6)  

Total 263 257

Kilde: RCP

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SkakspilletLink til RCP

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Den post-faktuelle virkelighed

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Ingen dårlig idé at blive venner med Mark Zuckerberg

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Reklamer, ground game, social etc.

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