Could British Columbia Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com

Burning fossil fuelsand destroying Earth’s forests Is causing THIS

The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima

atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”

- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

The last time the world was 3°C warmer,

during the Pliocene era,the global sea level was up to

25 metres higher

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com3 metres sea-level rise

http://flood.firetree.net

If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Ireland’s great winter storm of 2014

GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet

The power

of our visionmust be stronger than

the power of our fears

Two Possible Futures

One YES

One NO

The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil

Which path will you take?

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt

So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?

Solar, Wind, Wave100% RenewablesGreen BuildingsGreen CitiesCyclingElectric TransitElectric CarsCarsharingOrganic FarmingEcoForestry

Green ChemistryBiomimicrySmart TechEducationInnovationSoftwareRobotics3-D PrintingSoul & Eco-TourismHolistic Healthcare

Saying YES as well as NO

Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org

Germany’s Path Towards 100% Renewable Energy Regions, with Beate Fischer

We do not need tohate or vilify fossil fuels.

They have been amazing.

We should praise them, and then end the affair.

Guy Dauncey 2009www.earthfuture.com

The Sun is everywhere,but for the past five million years,all we could dowas look at it.

For 500,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood

We wanted energy,But we did not know how

to gather it directly from the Sun.

But then we discovered fossil fuels.

It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the modern world.

It is fossilized solar energythat has made advanced engineering,

solar PV and electric vehicles possible.

The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

500,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

1,750,000,000 yearsSolar Energy

For the next 1,750,000,000 years, we will be able to harvest the Sun’s energy

directly through advanced solar technologies

The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org

Could B.C. Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

PART 1: ELECTRICITY

BC Hydro’s Power 2014, GWh

BC Hydro dams 43,000 72%IPP Hydro dams 4,911 8%IPP Run-of-River hydro 3,535 6%IPP Natural Gas 3,140 5%IPP Biomass 2,505 4%IPP Wind 1,337 2%IPP Garbage incineration 131IPP Biogas 91TOTAL 59,000

Not included: FortisBC, Municipal UtilitiesIPP = Independent Power Producer

Fossil Fuels - Natural Gas:Island Generation, Campbell RiverContracted until 2022275 MW2,300 GWh a year

BC Hydro Dams: 43,000 GWh a year= 73% of BC’s power

Assumed savings by 2025 fromenergy efficiency & conservation

13,000 GWh pa

New Electricity Supply needed by 2025: 23,600 GWh

Source: CanWEA

BC’s wind energy

potentialOnshore: 39,000 GWhOffshore: 59,000 GWh

WINDVISION 2025: 5250 MW by 2025

= 14,500 GWh pa

CanWEA

Solar PV

1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977

Mass production = falling prices

100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000

137 GWin 2013

Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project

Solar Economics in BC, 2014

$4 a watt12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase

3% finance

Cost per watt $4 4 kW + tax $16,800 Finance @ 3% $29,300

kWh per year 4,400 25-year savings $21,900 Result -$7,400

Solar Economics in BC, 2020

$1.60 a watt15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase

Cash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 5% tax $6,720

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600Profit +$19,000

By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year

By 2020, every commercial roof that is not solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year

Solar Potential in BC, 2025

7,000 GWh pa

Natural gas:5 jobs per $1 million

Solar: 14.5 jobs per

$1 million

Building Retrofits:17 jobs per $1 million

Mass Transit:22 jobs per $1 million

Dan Kammen &Ditlev Engel

Copenhagen Climate Council

Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC

7,000 GWh x 0.91 = 6,370 jobs

Wave, Tidal, Geothermal Power

POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?

Current Policy:2010: 93% of BC’s power must be clean or renewable 2012 : BC Government defines natural gas as “clean”

What’s needed:•By 2022, 100% of BC’s power must be clean and renewable•Phase out natural gas-fired power by 2022•Increase commitment to energy conservation and efficiency

PART 2: BUILDINGS

NATURAL GAS

Planned Natural Gas Pipelines in BCWatershed Sentinel

The Red Blower

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comUp to $600 for low-income attic insulation

Rolling in the Pink

Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO

Up to $1,000 for basement insulation

Internal wall insulation

Solar Air Source Heat Pump

GeothermalGround-sourceGeo-exchange

Heat Pump

Geothermal Heat PumpAustrian radial-drilling

Stabilized Insulated Rammed EarthSIREWALL R-50

SIREWALL insulates 13.5 times more than a concrete wall of the same thickness;

5.5 times more than a rammed earth wall.

WE CAN ACHIEVE

90% HEAT ENERGY

REDUCTIONIN NEW HOMES

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

16" foam insulation under slab and outside foundation walls

8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB

EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed U= 0.73

Air tightness 0.6 ACH at 50 pa.(1.6 for R2000; up to 10 older homes)

Blown cellulose insulation

Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust heat transferred to incoming fresh air

Natural gas hot water, space heat

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com = 4.3% more

Solar Thermal District Heating

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta

800 solar hot water

panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions

per home per year.

The Energy Centre

Solar Thermal Heating

12 months a year

Community solar heat

panels

Solar hot waterpanels

Year-round solar thermal heatingGermany

www.wagner-solar.com

Sweden, Stockholm Treated sewage effluent heats 80,000 apartments

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat

Planned District Energy Centres, Vancouver

POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?Current Policy: Building Code. Small energy conservation incentives. That’s it.

What’s needed:•All houses to upgrade to new energy code at point of sale (as Berkeley, San Francisco)•All apartment buildings and condos to audit for energy efficiency every ten years•Major incentives for zero carbon upgrades•By 2020, all new buildings to be zero carbon (as UK, California)

PART 3: TRANSPORTATION

For all Light Transport, 100% Renewable Energy is Possible

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com5% shift of trips to walking

Istanbul,Turkey

Seoul, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York

Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio

London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com15% trip shift to cycling

In Holland, cycling is the main mode of transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane

Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Imagined Future

Electric Bikes

The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com15% Trip Shift to Transit and LRT

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Curitiba, Brazil

OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Electric Light Trail TransitMulhouse, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework

Cisco Systems

Four people in Beijing

Five people in Vancouver

5% Trip Shift to Ride-Sharing

Shift to Car Sharing

Vehicle owners earn up to $300 a month

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

North America car-sharing forecast

4.4 million users by 2016David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan

Sustainable urban design for walking, cycling and transit

Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comInterim Shift to Plug-In Hybrids

By 2030, 100% Electric Cars and Light Trucks

Hiroko EV

Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range

Nissan 2014 e-NV200

Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-UpD-I-Y Conversion

Honda solar electric car charging

No tax, saving $4,000.Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.No parking charges anywhere in Norway.

No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.Free municipal EV recharging.

Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.Overall savings $369 a month.21 models to choose from.

The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

Interim: Hybrid Trucks

VIA Motors V-Trux

More Hybrid Trucks

GM Silverado

GM Sierra

POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?Current Policy: •BC follows California low carbon fuel standard•Plug-In BC incentives for electric vehicles & charging posts. Now ended.

What’s needed:•Major incentives for electric vehicles•New vehicles: 95 grams CO2 per kilometre by 2020; 50g/km by 2025; 0g/km by 2030•Major investments in walking, transit, bike-lanes

PART 4: TRUCKING,SHIPS & PLANES

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comElectric trucks on the market today

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comPACCAR Plug-In Hybrid Trucks

Peterbilt Plug-In Hybrid Garbage Truck

Long Distance Electric Freight

Dutch concept electric truck Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg

Long Distance Freight

Electric BiofuelHydrogen

Long Distance Freight

EV Trucks not ready

Biofuels questionable

Hydrogen not happening

With difficulty: and a long way off

Ocean Shipping

Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Future Boeing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

With difficulty: and a long way off

Flying

Possible Future Freight

PART 5: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?

WHAT WILL IT TAKE

TO CLIMB THE MOUNTAIN?

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic LeadersVisionary Provincial Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic LeadersVisionary Provincial LeadersVisionary Federal Leaders

ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic LeadersVisionary Provincial LeadersVisionary Federal Leaders Visionary Voters

Action Sheet Available at the BCSEA Booth

Think Globally,

LOCALLY

On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections

BRING IT HOME

THE CLIMATE CRISIS…

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comwww.bcsea.org/CityClimateSolutions

www.bcsea.org/SmallTownClimateSolutions

Local Municipal Elections November 2015

Richard Atwell Colin Plant Fred Haynes Shawn Newby

www.dogwoodinitiative.org

Coming Soon

Benefit CorporationsGreen Business CertificationPublic BankingBasic IncomeValues-Based BankingMicrolendingCommunity CurrenciesAn Entrepreneurial StateGreen BondsThe Sharing Economy

Carbon TaxesGenuine Progress IndicatorsLocal Business SynergyCooperatives Youth Businesses & CoopsFirst Nations BusinessesMinority BusinessesSerious Tax ReformClosure of Tax HavensTargeted Growth vs no-growth

BEYOND CAPITALISM…A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy

$5 SpecialPrice

Fall2014

Together, we can change the world

If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA

www.bcsea.org/join

HOW SOONDo you think it is possible?

1. By 20252. By 20353. By 20504. Never

www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

Dream itWish itDo it

Josephine Wallwww.josephinewall.co.uk

If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.

www.earthfuture.com

Could British Columbia Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

Environment

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