Could British Columbia Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com


Burning fossil fuelsand destroying Earth’s forests Is causing THIS


The current increase in global warming is "...equivalent to exploding 400,000 Hiroshima

atomic bombs per day, 365 days per year. That’s how much extra energy Earth is gaining each day.”

- James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist


The last time the world was 3°C warmer,

during the Pliocene era,the global sea level was up to

25 metres higher

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com3 metres sea-level rise

http://flood.firetree.net


If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

Ireland’s great winter storm of 2014



GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


The power

of our visionmust be stronger than

the power of our fears


Two Possible Futures

One YES

One NO


The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil



?



Which path will you take?



“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt



So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?


Solar, Wind, Wave100% RenewablesGreen BuildingsGreen CitiesCyclingElectric TransitElectric CarsCarsharingOrganic FarmingEcoForestry

Green ChemistryBiomimicrySmart TechEducationInnovationSoftwareRobotics3-D PrintingSoul & Eco-TourismHolistic Healthcare

Saying YES as well as NO


Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org


Germany’s Path Towards 100% Renewable Energy Regions, with Beate Fischer


We do not need tohate or vilify fossil fuels.

They have been amazing.

We should praise them, and then end the affair.


Guy Dauncey 2009www.earthfuture.com

The Sun is everywhere,but for the past five million years,all we could dowas look at it.


For 500,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood



We wanted energy,But we did not know how

to gather it directly from the Sun.

But then we discovered fossil fuels.


It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the modern world.


It is fossilized solar energythat has made advanced engineering,

solar PV and electric vehicles possible.


The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

500,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

1,750,000,000 yearsSolar Energy


For the next 1,750,000,000 years, we will be able to harvest the Sun’s energy

directly through advanced solar technologies


The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age



A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years



A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org


Could B.C. Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

PART 1: ELECTRICITY


BC Hydro’s Power 2014, GWh

BC Hydro dams 43,000 72%IPP Hydro dams 4,911 8%IPP Run-of-River hydro 3,535 6%IPP Natural Gas 3,140 5%IPP Biomass 2,505 4%IPP Wind 1,337 2%IPP Garbage incineration 131IPP Biogas 91TOTAL 59,000

Not included: FortisBC, Municipal UtilitiesIPP = Independent Power Producer


Fossil Fuels - Natural Gas:Island Generation, Campbell RiverContracted until 2022275 MW2,300 GWh a year


BC Hydro Dams: 43,000 GWh a year= 73% of BC’s power


Assumed savings by 2025 fromenergy efficiency & conservation

13,000 GWh pa


New Electricity Supply needed by 2025: 23,600 GWh

Source: CanWEA


BC’s wind energy

potentialOnshore: 39,000 GWhOffshore: 59,000 GWh

WINDVISION 2025: 5250 MW by 2025

= 14,500 GWh pa

CanWEA


Solar PV


1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977


Mass production = falling prices


100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000

137 GWin 2013


Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project


Solar Economics in BC, 2014

$4 a watt12 cents kwh, 3% per year increase

3% finance

Cost per watt $4 4 kW + tax $16,800 Finance @ 3% $29,300

kWh per year 4,400 25-year savings $21,900 Result -$7,400


Solar Economics in BC, 2020

$1.60 a watt15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increase

Cash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 5% tax $6,720

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600Profit +$19,000


By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year


By 2020, every commercial roof that is not solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year


Solar Potential in BC, 2025

7,000 GWh pa


Natural gas:5 jobs per $1 million

Solar: 14.5 jobs per

$1 million

Building Retrofits:17 jobs per $1 million

Mass Transit:22 jobs per $1 million


Dan Kammen &Ditlev Engel

Copenhagen Climate Council

2009


Potential Direct Solar Jobs in BC

7,000 GWh x 0.91 = 6,370 jobs


Wave, Tidal, Geothermal Power


POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?

Current Policy:2010: 93% of BC’s power must be clean or renewable 2012 : BC Government defines natural gas as “clean”

What’s needed:•By 2022, 100% of BC’s power must be clean and renewable•Phase out natural gas-fired power by 2022•Increase commitment to energy conservation and efficiency



PART 2: BUILDINGS


OIL


NATURAL GAS


Planned Natural Gas Pipelines in BCWatershed Sentinel



The Red Blower

Door

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comUp to $600 for low-income attic insulation

Rolling in the Pink


Saving Energy – Happy to be a HERO

Up to $1,000 for basement insulation



Internal wall insulation



Solar Air Source Heat Pump


GeothermalGround-sourceGeo-exchange

Heat Pump



Geothermal Heat PumpAustrian radial-drilling



Stabilized Insulated Rammed EarthSIREWALL R-50



SIREWALL insulates 13.5 times more than a concrete wall of the same thickness;

5.5 times more than a rammed earth wall.



WE CAN ACHIEVE

90% HEAT ENERGY

REDUCTIONIN NEW HOMES


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com



16" foam insulation under slab and outside foundation walls

8” studs, 24” OC with plywood and OSB

EuroLine Windows fiberglass/UPVC triple-glazed U= 0.73

Air tightness 0.6 ACH at 50 pa.(1.6 for R2000; up to 10 older homes)

Blown cellulose insulation

Heat recovery ventilation: 90% exhaust heat transferred to incoming fresh air

Natural gas hot water, space heat


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com = 4.3% more



Solar Thermal District Heating

Drake Landing, Okotoks, Alberta



800 solar hot water

panels on the garages

90% of residential space heating needs met by solar thermal energy (40-50o C)

Reduction - 5 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions

per home per year.



The Energy Centre

Solar Thermal Heating

12 months a year

Community solar heat

panels

Solar hot waterpanels


Year-round solar thermal heatingGermany

www.wagner-solar.com



Sweden, Stockholm Treated sewage effluent heats 80,000 apartments


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Vancouver False Creek Sewage-Based District Heat



Planned District Energy Centres, Vancouver


POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?Current Policy: Building Code. Small energy conservation incentives. That’s it.

What’s needed:•All houses to upgrade to new energy code at point of sale (as Berkeley, San Francisco)•All apartment buildings and condos to audit for energy efficiency every ten years•Major incentives for zero carbon upgrades•By 2020, all new buildings to be zero carbon (as UK, California)



PART 3: TRANSPORTATION


For all Light Transport, 100% Renewable Energy is Possible

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com5% shift of trips to walking


Istanbul,Turkey


Seoul, South Korea


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York


Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio



London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com15% trip shift to cycling


In Holland, cycling is the main mode of transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane


Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Imagined Future


Electric Bikes


The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com15% Trip Shift to Transit and LRT

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Curitiba, Brazil


OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Electric Light Trail TransitMulhouse, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework


Cisco Systems

Four people in Beijing

Five people in Vancouver


5% Trip Shift to Ride-Sharing


See

Shift to Car Sharing


Vehicle owners earn up to $300 a month

Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing


North America car-sharing forecast

4.4 million users by 2016David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan


Sustainable urban design for walking, cycling and transit



Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comInterim Shift to Plug-In Hybrids


By 2030, 100% Electric Cars and Light Trucks


Top

Hiroko EV


Top



Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range


Nissan 2014 e-NV200


Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-UpD-I-Y Conversion



Honda solar electric car charging


No tax, saving $4,000.Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.No parking charges anywhere in Norway.

No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.Free municipal EV recharging.

Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.Overall savings $369 a month.21 models to choose from.


The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries


Interim: Hybrid Trucks

VIA Motors V-Trux


More Hybrid Trucks

GM Silverado

GM Sierra


POLICY – WHAT’S NEEDED?Current Policy: •BC follows California low carbon fuel standard•Plug-In BC incentives for electric vehicles & charging posts. Now ended.

What’s needed:•Major incentives for electric vehicles•New vehicles: 95 grams CO2 per kilometre by 2020; 50g/km by 2025; 0g/km by 2030•Major investments in walking, transit, bike-lanes



PART 4: TRUCKING,SHIPS & PLANES

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comElectric trucks on the market today

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comPACCAR Plug-In Hybrid Trucks


Peterbilt Plug-In Hybrid Garbage Truck


Long Distance Electric Freight

Dutch concept electric truck Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg


Long Distance Freight

Electric BiofuelHydrogen

?

2032


Long Distance Freight

2032

EV Trucks not ready

Biofuels questionable

Hydrogen not happening


With difficulty: and a long way off

Ocean Shipping


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Future Boeing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

With difficulty: and a long way off

Flying



Possible Future Freight



PART 5: WHAT WILL IT TAKE?


WHAT WILL IT TAKE

TO CLIMB THE MOUNTAIN?


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic LeadersVisionary Provincial Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic LeadersVisionary Provincial LeadersVisionary Federal Leaders


ALL OF US

WORKING TOGETHER

Visionary Individual LeadersVisionary NGO LeadersVisionary Municipal LeadersVisionary Business LeadersVisionary Financial LeadersVisionary Academic LeadersVisionary Provincial LeadersVisionary Federal Leaders Visionary Voters


Action Sheet Available at the BCSEA Booth


Think Globally,

VOTE

LOCALLY

On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections

BRING IT HOME

THE CLIMATE CRISIS…

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comwww.bcsea.org/CityClimateSolutions


www.bcsea.org/SmallTownClimateSolutions


Local Municipal Elections November 2015


Richard Atwell Colin Plant Fred Haynes Shawn Newby


Local Municipal Elections November 2015


www.dogwoodinitiative.org


Coming Soon


Benefit CorporationsGreen Business CertificationPublic BankingBasic IncomeValues-Based BankingMicrolendingCommunity CurrenciesAn Entrepreneurial StateGreen BondsThe Sharing Economy

Carbon TaxesGenuine Progress IndicatorsLocal Business SynergyCooperatives Youth Businesses & CoopsFirst Nations BusinessesMinority BusinessesSerious Tax ReformClosure of Tax HavensTargeted Growth vs no-growth

BEYOND CAPITALISM…A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy


$5 SpecialPrice



Fall2014


Together, we can change the world

If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA

www.bcsea.org/join


HOW SOONDo you think it is possible?

1. By 20252. By 20353. By 20504. Never



www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey



Dream itWish itDo it



Josephine Wallwww.josephinewall.co.uk


If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.



www.earthfuture.com

Could British Columbia Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?

Environment

Transcript of Could British Columbia Become a 100% Renewable Energy Region?