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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The 2011 Chicago to Mackinac Race
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Sponsored by the Chicago Yacht Club. Chicago, Illinois to Mackinac Island, Michigan, a
distance of approximately 300 nautical miles. The 2011 race marked the 103rd time the race had
taken place. In 2011, nearly 350 boats participated with
approximately 3,500 crew members. The cruising sailboats started on Friday afternoon
(7/15) while the rest of the competitors started on Saturday morning (7/16).
Most traditional sailboats finish in 30 to 70 hours. The record of 23 hours, 30 minutes was set in 2002.
A Long Tradition
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Fleet Encountered A Strong Storm System On Sunday Night
Many boats were forced to withdraw from the race due to damage to sails and rigging.
And tragically, Suzanne Bickel and Mark Morley perished near the Fox Islands during the capsize of WingNuts -- the first weather-related fatalities in the race’s history.
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Chicago-Mac Storms
A Meteorological Analysis
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Forecast: Friday, July 15
The SPC Day Three Convective Outlook mentions that a “storm complex could backbuild or develop east southeast into parts of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and upper and northern lower Michigan on Sunday afternoon.
The potential for thunderstorms was mentioned before the start of the race at the Friday night weather briefing.
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Forecast: Saturday, July 16
Saturday, July 16 – The SPC Day Two Outlook continued to focus on the upper Great Lakes as a likely area for the development of severe weather from late Sunday into early Monday morning.
NWS Gaylord issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook at 4:38 EDT on Saturday, July 15 which mentioned the possibility of strong and potentially damaging thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. The HWO stated “any storms that do develop Sunday night and Monday may contain damaging winds.”
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Initial Forecast – Sunday, July 17
Hail
Wind
Tornado
Overall
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
At 1630Z – The SPC upgraded the potential for severe thunderstorms and damaging wind gusts across the upper Great Lakes
The Forecast Gets Upgraded – 1630Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Sunday, July 17, 2011
A Very Supportive EnvironmentFor Thunderstorms
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Extremely High Surface Dew Points – 21Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Rhinelander, WI Observations
89 F
79 F
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
ML CAPE – 21Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Synoptic Scale Lift
July 17 @ 21Z July 18 @ 0Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Mesoscale Lift
Visible Satellite 1902Z Visible Satellite 2045Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Wind Shear – 21Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Mid-Level Support – 21Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
300 mb Divergence – 21Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Thunderstorm Initiation
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Thunderstorm Initiation
Storms formed in two areas: Southeast of Duluth,
Minnesota near the warm front and lake breeze boundaries.
Near Marquette, Michigan in association with lake breeze fronts.
The systems later merged near Lake Michigan before crossing the lake.
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Thunderstorms Develop In Wisconsin
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KDLH 2117Z KDLH 2153Z
Initial Development: 2117Z to 2153Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KDLH 2153Z KDLH 2255Z
A Period of Explosive Development – 2153Z to 2255Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Linear Structure Expands: 2255Z to 0008Z
KDLH 2255Z KDLH 0008Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KGRB 0006Z KGRB 0122Z
The System Shifts In Response to the Steering Winds: 0006Z to 0122Z
KGRB Animation 0006Z to 0122Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Thunderstorms Develop InMichigan’s Upper Peninsula
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KMQT 2242Z
Initial Development Along The Lake Breeze Front
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KMQT 2242Z KMQT 2356Z
Expansion of Thunderstorms Across the Upper Peninsula: 2242Z to 2356Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KMQT 0000Z KMQT 0201Z
Expansion of Thunderstorms Across the Upper Peninsula: 0000Z to 0201Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KMQT 0201Z KMQT 0302Z
The Systems Expand, Consolidate and Move East: 0201Z to 0302Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Thunderstorms Reach Lake Michigan
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
A History Of Strong Winds
KAPX 0301Z
SPC High Wind Reports <= 0300Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX (Gaylord, MI) issued a Marine Weather Statement @ 0247Z
“These storms will likely produce strong gusty winds of 30 knots or higher…and could pose a serious hazard for boaters … Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storms arrive.”
KGRB (Green Bay, WI) issued at Marine Weather Warning @ 0248Z
“Mariners can expect dangerous winds in excess of 50 knots…high waves…dangerous lightning…and heavy rains. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately.”
Marine Alerts Are Issued
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Storms Cross The Lake
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0301Z
SW @ 16.5 kts
60 kts @ 18,000’
50 kts @ 15,000’
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0306Z
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© 2012
KAPX 0310Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0315Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0319Z
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
An Examination Of Two Features Bow Echo Downburst
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0324Z
Analyzing A Bow Echo: Close-Up
50 kts @ 12,500’
··
SW @ 16.7 kts
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0329Z
Analyzing A Bow Echo : Close-Up
··
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0333Z
Analyzing A Bow Echo : Close-Up
··
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0338Z
Analyzing A Bow Echo : Close-Up
SW @ 16.3 kts
··
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0342Z
Analyzing A Bow Echo : Close-Up
NW @ 44.7 kts
··
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Analyzing A Downburst
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0342Z
Analyzing A Downburst
WingNuts was approximately 20 miles northeast of Buoy 45002
··
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0342Z 65 kts @ 7,400’
55,000’
··
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0347Z
··
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0351Z
··
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0355Z 55 kts @ 5,500’
62,000’
··
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0401Z
· ·
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0405Z
··
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
KAPX 0410Z
··
·
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Echo Top Imagery (0347Z to 0410Z)
0347Z
0410Z0405Z0401Z
0356Z0351Z
· · ·
· · ·
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Vertical Integrated Liquid Imagery (0347Z to 0410Z)
0347Z
0410Z0405Z0401Z
0356Z0351Z
·
· · ·
· ·
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The crew had lashed the mainsail to the boom and reduced the size of the head sail in an effort to maintain steerage in the large waves and high winds.
Each crew member was wearing a personal flotation device, safety harness and tether.
At approximately 04Z, the crew looked upwind and witnessed boats disappearing in a “wall of white”.
The crew attempted to furl the jib, but before the task was completed the boat rolled violently to starboard and capsized.
The crew observed 67 knots on the wind speed indicator as WingNuts capsized.
Mark Morley and Suzanne Makowski-Bickel were critically injured during the capsize and subsequently drowned.
At approximately 0430Z, Sociable heard the distress signals and began the remarkable rescue of the six remaining crew members.
Impact On The Fleet -- WingNuts
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Downburst Reaches The Shore
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
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KAPX 0428Z
*
65 kts @ 2,300’
64 kts @ ASOS
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Meanwhile, Near Mackinac IslandKAPX 0243Z KAPX 0315Z
KAPX 0347Z KAPX 0415Z
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Impact On The Fleet Two (2) deaths during the capsize of WingNuts Forty-seven (47) boats withdrew from the race due to the storms. Thirty-seven (37) boats reported being knocked down, many repeatedly for several minutes at a time. Two (2) boats collided, while twelve (12) boats reported coming very close to a collision. One (1) boat was dismasted. Forty-nine (49) boats reported damage to sails and/or rigging. Six (6) boats indicated their sails were destroyed.
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
The Fleet Was Aware Of The Approaching Storms
The potential for storms was mentioned at the pre-race meeting on Friday night.
Most of the competitors (85%) indicated they were aware of the approaching storms.
Approximately 70% of the boats were tracking the storms on radar.
Many long-time sailors reported the lightning was the most intense they had ever experienced.
Many sailors mentioned confusion regarding the warnings issued by KAPX and KGRB.
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Maximum Wind Gusts Across The Region
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____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Day Three Severe Weather Probability Issued on Friday, July 15, 2011.
Storm Reports for July 17-18, 2011.
A Well-Forecasted Event
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Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011
____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com
© 2012
Thank You
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