Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011...

Chicago-Mackinac Race - 2011

____________________________________________________________________________Mark A. Thornton --- www.LakeErieWX.com

© 2012

The 2011 Chicago to Mackinac Race

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Sponsored by the Chicago Yacht Club. Chicago, Illinois to Mackinac Island, Michigan, a

distance of approximately 300 nautical miles. The 2011 race marked the 103rd time the race had

taken place. In 2011, nearly 350 boats participated with

approximately 3,500 crew members. The cruising sailboats started on Friday afternoon

(7/15) while the rest of the competitors started on Saturday morning (7/16).

Most traditional sailboats finish in 30 to 70 hours. The record of 23 hours, 30 minutes was set in 2002.

A Long Tradition

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The Fleet Encountered A Strong Storm System On Sunday Night

Many boats were forced to withdraw from the race due to damage to sails and rigging.

And tragically, Suzanne Bickel and Mark Morley perished near the Fox Islands during the capsize of WingNuts -- the first weather-related fatalities in the race’s history.

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The Chicago-Mac Storms

A Meteorological Analysis

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The Forecast: Friday, July 15

The SPC Day Three Convective Outlook mentions that a “storm complex could backbuild or develop east southeast into parts of northern Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and upper and northern lower Michigan on Sunday afternoon.

The potential for thunderstorms was mentioned before the start of the race at the Friday night weather briefing.

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The Forecast: Saturday, July 16

Saturday, July 16 – The SPC Day Two Outlook continued to focus on the upper Great Lakes as a likely area for the development of severe weather from late Sunday into early Monday morning.

NWS Gaylord issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook at 4:38 EDT on Saturday, July 15 which mentioned the possibility of strong and potentially damaging thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday. The HWO stated “any storms that do develop Sunday night and Monday may contain damaging winds.”

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The Initial Forecast – Sunday, July 17

Hail

Wind

Tornado

Overall

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At 1630Z – The SPC upgraded the potential for severe thunderstorms and damaging wind gusts across the upper Great Lakes

The Forecast Gets Upgraded – 1630Z

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Sunday, July 17, 2011

A Very Supportive EnvironmentFor Thunderstorms

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Extremely High Surface Dew Points – 21Z

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Rhinelander, WI Observations

89 F

79 F

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ML CAPE – 21Z

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Synoptic Scale Lift

July 17 @ 21Z July 18 @ 0Z

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Mesoscale Lift

Visible Satellite 1902Z Visible Satellite 2045Z

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Wind Shear – 21Z

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Mid-Level Support – 21Z

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300 mb Divergence – 21Z

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Thunderstorm Initiation

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Thunderstorm Initiation

Storms formed in two areas: Southeast of Duluth,

Minnesota near the warm front and lake breeze boundaries.

Near Marquette, Michigan in association with lake breeze fronts.

The systems later merged near Lake Michigan before crossing the lake.

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Thunderstorms Develop In Wisconsin

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KDLH 2117Z KDLH 2153Z

Initial Development: 2117Z to 2153Z

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A Period of Explosive Development – 2153Z to 2255Z

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The Linear Structure Expands: 2255Z to 0008Z


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KGRB 0006Z KGRB 0122Z

The System Shifts In Response to the Steering Winds: 0006Z to 0122Z

KGRB Animation 0006Z to 0122Z

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Thunderstorms Develop InMichigan’s Upper Peninsula

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KMQT 2242Z

Initial Development Along The Lake Breeze Front

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KMQT 2242Z KMQT 2356Z

Expansion of Thunderstorms Across the Upper Peninsula: 2242Z to 2356Z

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Expansion of Thunderstorms Across the Upper Peninsula: 0000Z to 0201Z

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The Systems Expand, Consolidate and Move East: 0201Z to 0302Z

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Thunderstorms Reach Lake Michigan

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A History Of Strong Winds

KAPX 0301Z

SPC High Wind Reports <= 0300Z

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KAPX (Gaylord, MI) issued a Marine Weather Statement @ 0247Z

“These storms will likely produce strong gusty winds of 30 knots or higher…and could pose a serious hazard for boaters … Boaters should consider heading for shore before the storms arrive.”

KGRB (Green Bay, WI) issued at Marine Weather Warning @ 0248Z

“Mariners can expect dangerous winds in excess of 50 knots…high waves…dangerous lightning…and heavy rains. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately.”

Marine Alerts Are Issued

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The Storms Cross The Lake

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KAPX 0301Z

SW @ 16.5 kts

60 kts @ 18,000’

50 kts @ 15,000’

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KAPX 0306Z

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KAPX 0310Z

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KAPX 0315Z

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KAPX 0319Z

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An Examination Of Two Features Bow Echo Downburst

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KAPX 0324Z

Analyzing A Bow Echo: Close-Up

50 kts @ 12,500’

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SW @ 16.7 kts

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KAPX 0329Z

Analyzing A Bow Echo : Close-Up

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KAPX 0333Z


··

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KAPX 0338Z


SW @ 16.3 kts

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KAPX 0342Z


NW @ 44.7 kts

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The crew had lashed the mainsail to the boom and reduced the size of the head sail in an effort to maintain steerage in the large waves and high winds.

Each crew member was wearing a personal flotation device, safety harness and tether.

At approximately 04Z, the crew looked upwind and witnessed boats disappearing in a “wall of white”.

The crew attempted to furl the jib, but before the task was completed the boat rolled violently to starboard and capsized.

The crew observed 67 knots on the wind speed indicator as WingNuts capsized.

Mark Morley and Suzanne Makowski-Bickel were critically injured during the capsize and subsequently drowned.

At approximately 0430Z, Sociable heard the distress signals and began the remarkable rescue of the six remaining crew members.

Impact On The Fleet -- WingNuts

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Impact On The Fleet Two (2) deaths during the capsize of WingNuts Forty-seven (47) boats withdrew from the race due to the storms. Thirty-seven (37) boats reported being knocked down, many repeatedly for several minutes at a time. Two (2) boats collided, while twelve (12) boats reported coming very close to a collision. One (1) boat was dismasted. Forty-nine (49) boats reported damage to sails and/or rigging. Six (6) boats indicated their sails were destroyed.

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The Fleet Was Aware Of The Approaching Storms

The potential for storms was mentioned at the pre-race meeting on Friday night.

Most of the competitors (85%) indicated they were aware of the approaching storms.

Approximately 70% of the boats were tracking the storms on radar.

Many long-time sailors reported the lightning was the most intense they had ever experienced.

Many sailors mentioned confusion regarding the warnings issued by KAPX and KGRB.

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Day Three Severe Weather Probability Issued on Friday, July 15, 2011.

Storm Reports for July 17-18, 2011.

A Well-Forecasted Event

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