Post on 18-Jan-2018
description
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Longitudinal Dynamics of Youth in Foster Care
Joseph MagruderEmily Putnam-Hornstein
Center for Social Services ResearchUniversity of California at Berkeley
Beth LindleyCalifornia Department of Social Services
The Performance Indicators Project is a collaboration of the California Department of Social Services and the University of California at Berkeley,
and is supported by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Overview…• Part I: California’s caseload dynamics in the past decade
– Dramatic overall decline, steepest among elementary school aged groups
– No decline observed for older youth in care (and entry rates flat)– What explains these different dynamics? what might we expect to
see in the years to come?
• Part II: (Late) placement disruptions of older youth– Cohort of youth who first entered care before their 14th birthday
(and were in care at age 17)– Data suggest that, even for those who have early stable
placements, placement disruptions are common between ages 14 and 17
– Why is stability so hard to achieve for these older youth? what are the implications for transitions out of care and into adulthood?
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Data
• All data for this presentation are based on extracts from California’s Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS)
• Extracts are configured into a longitudinal database as part of a collaboration between the California Department of Social Services and the Center for Social Services Research (CSSR) at UC Berkeley
• Data for Part I are from CSSR’s publicly available website:cssr.berkeley.edu/ucb_childwelfare
• Data for Part II are based on a unique sample created by the presenters to be described later…
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Part IElusiveness of Permanency for Foster Care Youth
• California’s caseload has declined in dramatic fashion over the last decade:– Over 109,000 children in child welfare supervised
placements in 1999– 64,838 children as of January 1, 2009
• Yet the number of older teens in care has not followed this downward trend:– Just over 9,000 16-17 year olds in care in 1999– 9,882 16-17 year olds as of January 1, 2009
• A point-in-time caseload count changes as a function of entry and exit flows…so we explore annual cohort dynamics over time for clarity
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload1998-2009
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
all children
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
infants
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
3 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
4 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
5 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
6 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
7 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
8 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
9 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
10 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
11 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
12 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
13 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
14 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
15 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
16 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)
1998-2009
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
17 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries1998-2008
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
all children
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
infants
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
3 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
5 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
6 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
7 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
8 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
9 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
11 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
13 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
14 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
15 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
16 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)
1998-2008
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
17 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits 1998-2008
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
all children
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
infants
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
2 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
3 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
4 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
5 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
6 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
7 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
8 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
9 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
10 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
11 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
12 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
13 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
14 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
15 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
16 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
17 yr olds
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
199116 1
7
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1992
16
16
16 1
7
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
6
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
1993
15 1
6 17
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
15
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
199414
16 1
7
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
199513
13
16 1
7
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
199612
13
16 1
7
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
199711
13
16 1
7
151
413
12
11
10
9
876
California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
July-Dec. First Entries, 8 Days or More in Care California:
Status 12, 24, and 48 Months After Entry by Entry Year
65 59 60 59 58 57 57
38 35 34 31 31 30 3014 12 12 10 10 9 9
4 5 5 6 5 4 4
7 8 9 9 8 6 6
5 5 6 7 8 9 916 16 17 18 20 21 23
30 37 36 37 37 38 3949 51 50 52 52 53 53 56 57 55 57 56 56 56
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 2000 2002 2004 1998 2000 2002 2004 1998 2000 2002 2004
In Care Other Emancipated Guardianship Adopted Reunified
48 months after entry24 months after entry12 months after entry
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Part I Conclusions
• The basic intent of PL96-272, ASFA, etc. is being met – children spend less time in care and achieve permanency at earlier ages.
• We are not seeing the full effect of this on older adolescents yet...
• However, each age cohort is smaller than the previous one at the beginning of adolescence.
• Unless there is a sharp increase in the number of children reentering care, we can expect the number of youth in care to decline over the next five years.
• The caseload will have proportionately fewer youth who have been raised in the foster care system.
• These changes suggest that the youth in future cohorts will have different service needs.
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Part II Elusiveness of Stability for Foster Care Youth
• Motivation:– This research extends analyses we presented last
year in which we noted that relatively few teens were in the same placement at age 17 as they had been at age 14
– This was despite the fact that the median time in the current placement at age 14 was 4.6 years
• Objective:– Explore factors related to late-adolescent
instability for youth who were in care at age 14
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Sample
Birth
1989 2006
In Foster Care at age 17
2003
First Entry to Foster
Care
Children born in 1989 who entered foster care under the supervision of California child welfare and were in care at age 14 and age 17 under the supervision of either child welfare or probation. Data were drawn from a longitudinal extract of the California Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS).
Youth may have exited and re-
entered between age 14 and age 17
In Foster Care at age 14
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Who is represented in this Sample?
California Caseload Snapshot• July 1, 2006:
– 5,291* 17-year olds in care– 63% of these youth had been in care for 3+
years
Our Sample (born in 1989, age 17 in care in 2006, in care at 14)
• 3,027** youth met our sample criteria
*Includes only youth currently under child welfare supervision**Includes youth who were under child welfare or probation supervision
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Sample Demographics
• Average age at first entry: 5.8 years• Median of 6 years (aggregate) spent in out-of-
home care• 57% of life through age 17 spent in out-of-home
care– 7% of life spent in a group home setting– 14% of time in care in group home setting
• 79% eventually emancipated / “aged out”• Nearly 70% percent experienced a placement
move between age 14 and 17
020
040
060
0E
ntry
Cou
nt
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age
Total
020
040
060
0E
ntry
Cou
nt
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age
White Proportion of Total
020
040
060
0E
ntry
Cou
nt
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age
Hispanic Proportion of Total
020
040
060
0E
ntry
Cou
nt
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age
Black Proportion of Total
Age at First Entry
Mean: 5.8 yrs
Mean: 6.8 yrs
Mean: 7.3 yrs
Mean: 4.2 yrs
Life in Out-of-Home Care (by Age)0
150
300
015
030
00
150
300
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs
5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs
11-12yrs 13-14yrs Total
Freq
uenc
y
Proportion of Life in CareGraphs by Age Categories
by Age at First EntryProportion of Life at Age 17 Spent in Out-of-Home Care
Placements Prior to Age 14 (by move vs. no move after age 14)
12
34
56
Pla
cem
ent C
ount
no move moved
Number of Placements through Age 14
Mean Median
Exiting from Care…
84%
11%4%
76%
12%
12%
no move moved
Emancipated Permanency Other
by Placement Move After Age 14Final Exits:
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Model Specification
covariates ofvector a is ),...,(
child ith for the 14 of age after the move placement a equals :where
1 niii
i
xxxy
niniii xxxy ...)}|1{Pr( logit 110
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
CovariatesRace: white (ref), black, hispanic, native american, asian/pi Male (0/1)Age at First Entry: <1 yr (ref), 1-2yrs, 3-4yrs, 5-6yrs, 7-8yrs, 9-10yrs, 11-13yrsPlacement Type at Age 14: foster (ref), kin, group, guardianship, otherPlacement Count at Age 14: one (ref), two, three+Most Recent Removal Reason: neglect (ref), physical, sexual, otherFirst Episode (0/1)Sibling(s) in Same Placement (0/1)Mental Retardation (0/1)Physical Disability (0/1)Visual Hearing Disability (0/1)DSM-III Diagnosis (0/1)
Race by Placement InteractionsRace by Age InteractionsPlacement by Age Interactions
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Models
• Three models shown: – basic demographic variables– basic demographic +placement variables– basic demographic + placement + health variables
• Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals reported (w/robust standard error adjustments)
• Interaction effects examined (but not shown in handout)…no evidence of improved fit
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Findings (see handout of models)• Suggestion that some types of disabilities are protective
(i.e., mental retardation), while others increase risk of late placement instability (i.e., mental illness, visual/hearing disabilities) – Low correlation between disabilities – the highest was
0.22 between physical disability and mental retardation
• Placement with Kin or a Guardian is associated with greater placement certainty/stability during adolescent years vs. foster homes (but we cannot rule out selection factors)
• Placement with a sibling (at age 14) significantly reduced the odds of a later move, even after controlling for placement type and other covariates
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Findings (see handout of models)• In the first and simpler models (not shown) we found that
Black children in this sample were significantly less likely than White children to have experienced a placement move after the age of 14, but this effect disappeared once we controlled for placement type and other variables
• Increasing age at entry heightened the risk of experiencing a placement move in adolescence versus those who had first entered care as infants
• Entry for “other” reasons (which included truancy, running away, etc.) was associated with late adolescent placement instability, as was having had 2 or more placements or more than one removal episode prior to age 14
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Part II Conclusions
• Placement stability for adolescents is associated with age at first entry into foster care, placement situation, and health.
• Future research on foster youth placement stability may continue to show protective effects for youth placed with– kin and guardians– their siblings
• Other factors that may be examined in future research include changes in schools due to placement and same-neighborhood placement.
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
Conclusions?
• Many older adolescent youth in care (or recently exiting care) have spent significant periods of time in out-of-home care (despite common perceptions that emancipating youth are recent entries into foster care)
– Trend data would suggest that, moving forward, we should see that this is true for fewer older adolescents
– We should also expect to see the number/count of older youth dropping despite a constant entry rate (prior cohorts getting smaller due to shorter stays in care)
– Of course, only time will tell!
CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley
joemagruder@berkeley.edueputnamhornstein@berkeley.edu
beth.lindley@dss.ca.gov
CSSR.BERKELEY.EDU/UCB_CHILDWELFARE
Thank you to our colleagues at the Center for Social Services Research, the California
Department of Social Services, and the Stuart Foundation