CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley Longitudinal Dynamics of...

CENTER FOR SOCIAL SERVICES RESEARCH School of Social Welfare, UC Berkeley

Longitudinal Dynamics of Youth in Foster Care

Joseph MagruderEmily Putnam-Hornstein

Center for Social Services ResearchUniversity of California at Berkeley

Beth LindleyCalifornia Department of Social Services

The Performance Indicators Project is a collaboration of the California Department of Social Services and the University of California at Berkeley,

and is supported by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation


Overview…• Part I: California’s caseload dynamics in the past decade

– Dramatic overall decline, steepest among elementary school aged groups

– No decline observed for older youth in care (and entry rates flat)– What explains these different dynamics? what might we expect to

see in the years to come?

• Part II: (Late) placement disruptions of older youth– Cohort of youth who first entered care before their 14th birthday

(and were in care at age 17)– Data suggest that, even for those who have early stable

placements, placement disruptions are common between ages 14 and 17

– Why is stability so hard to achieve for these older youth? what are the implications for transitions out of care and into adulthood?


Data

• All data for this presentation are based on extracts from California’s Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS)

• Extracts are configured into a longitudinal database as part of a collaboration between the California Department of Social Services and the Center for Social Services Research (CSSR) at UC Berkeley

• Data for Part I are from CSSR’s publicly available website:cssr.berkeley.edu/ucb_childwelfare

• Data for Part II are based on a unique sample created by the presenters to be described later…


Part IElusiveness of Permanency for Foster Care Youth

• California’s caseload has declined in dramatic fashion over the last decade:– Over 109,000 children in child welfare supervised

placements in 1999– 64,838 children as of January 1, 2009

• Yet the number of older teens in care has not followed this downward trend:– Just over 9,000 16-17 year olds in care in 1999– 9,882 16-17 year olds as of January 1, 2009

• A point-in-time caseload count changes as a function of entry and exit flows…so we explore annual cohort dynamics over time for clarity


California’s Foster Care Caseload1998-2009

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

all children


California’s Foster Care Caseload (by age)

1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

infants



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

2 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

3 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

4 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

6 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

7 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

8 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

9 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

10 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

11 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

12 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

13 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

14 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

15 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

16 yr olds



1998-2009

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

17 yr olds


California’s Foster Care Entries1998-2008

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

all children


California’s Foster Care Entries (by age)

1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

infants



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

4 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

5 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

6 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

7 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

8 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

9 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

10 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

11 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

12 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

13 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

14 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

15 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16 yr olds



1998-2008

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

17 yr olds


California’s Foster Care Exits 1998-2008

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

all children


California’s Foster Care Exits (by age) 1998-2008

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

infants



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

1 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

2 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

3 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

4 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

5 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

6 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

7 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

8 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

9 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

10 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

11 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

12 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

13 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

14 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

15 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

16 yr olds



1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

17 yr olds


California’s Foster Care Caseload (by birth year)

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

199116 1

7

151

413

12

11

10

9

876



2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1992

16

16

16 1

7

151

413

12

11

10

9

876

6


2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

1993

15 1

6 17

151

413

12

11

10

9

876

15



2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

199414

16 1

7

151

413

12

11

10

9

876



2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

199513

13

16 1

7

151

413

12

11

10

9

876



2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

199612

13

16 1

7

151

413

12

11

10

9

876



2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

199711

13

16 1

7

151

413

12

11

10

9

876



July-Dec. First Entries, 8 Days or More in Care California:

Status 12, 24, and 48 Months After Entry by Entry Year

65 59 60 59 58 57 57

38 35 34 31 31 30 3014 12 12 10 10 9 9

4 5 5 6 5 4 4

7 8 9 9 8 6 6

5 5 6 7 8 9 916 16 17 18 20 21 23

30 37 36 37 37 38 3949 51 50 52 52 53 53 56 57 55 57 56 56 56

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1998 2000 2002 2004 1998 2000 2002 2004 1998 2000 2002 2004

In Care Other Emancipated Guardianship Adopted Reunified

48 months after entry24 months after entry12 months after entry


Part I Conclusions

• The basic intent of PL96-272, ASFA, etc. is being met – children spend less time in care and achieve permanency at earlier ages.

• We are not seeing the full effect of this on older adolescents yet...

• However, each age cohort is smaller than the previous one at the beginning of adolescence.

• Unless there is a sharp increase in the number of children reentering care, we can expect the number of youth in care to decline over the next five years.

• The caseload will have proportionately fewer youth who have been raised in the foster care system.

• These changes suggest that the youth in future cohorts will have different service needs.


Part II Elusiveness of Stability for Foster Care Youth

• Motivation:– This research extends analyses we presented last

year in which we noted that relatively few teens were in the same placement at age 17 as they had been at age 14

– This was despite the fact that the median time in the current placement at age 14 was 4.6 years

• Objective:– Explore factors related to late-adolescent

instability for youth who were in care at age 14


Sample

Birth

1989 2006

In Foster Care at age 17

2003

First Entry to Foster

Care

Children born in 1989 who entered foster care under the supervision of California child welfare and were in care at age 14 and age 17 under the supervision of either child welfare or probation. Data were drawn from a longitudinal extract of the California Child Welfare Services/Case Management System (CWS/CMS).

Youth may have exited and re-

entered between age 14 and age 17

In Foster Care at age 14


Who is represented in this Sample?

California Caseload Snapshot• July 1, 2006:

– 5,291* 17-year olds in care– 63% of these youth had been in care for 3+

years

Our Sample (born in 1989, age 17 in care in 2006, in care at 14)

• 3,027** youth met our sample criteria

*Includes only youth currently under child welfare supervision**Includes youth who were under child welfare or probation supervision


Sample Demographics

• Average age at first entry: 5.8 years• Median of 6 years (aggregate) spent in out-of-

home care• 57% of life through age 17 spent in out-of-home

care– 7% of life spent in a group home setting– 14% of time in care in group home setting

• 79% eventually emancipated / “aged out”• Nearly 70% percent experienced a placement

move between age 14 and 17

020

040

060

0E

ntry

Cou

nt

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age

Total

020

040

060

0E

ntry

Cou

nt

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age

White Proportion of Total

020

040

060

0E

ntry

Cou

nt

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age

Hispanic Proportion of Total

020

040

060

0E

ntry

Cou

nt

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13Age

Black Proportion of Total

Age at First Entry

Mean: 5.8 yrs

Mean: 6.8 yrs

Mean: 7.3 yrs

Mean: 4.2 yrs

Life in Out-of-Home Care (by Age)0

150

300

015

030

00

150

300

0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1

<1yr 1-2yrs 3-4yrs

5-6yrs 7-8yrs 9-10yrs

11-12yrs 13-14yrs Total

Freq

uenc

y

Proportion of Life in CareGraphs by Age Categories

by Age at First EntryProportion of Life at Age 17 Spent in Out-of-Home Care

Placements Prior to Age 14 (by move vs. no move after age 14)

12

34

56

Pla

cem

ent C

ount

no move moved

Number of Placements through Age 14

Mean Median

Exiting from Care…

84%

11%4%

76%

12%

12%

no move moved

Emancipated Permanency Other

by Placement Move After Age 14Final Exits:


Model Specification

covariates ofvector a is ),...,(

child ith for the 14 of age after the move placement a equals :where

1 niii

i

xxxy

niniii xxxy ...)}|1{Pr( logit 110


CovariatesRace: white (ref), black, hispanic, native american, asian/pi Male (0/1)Age at First Entry: <1 yr (ref), 1-2yrs, 3-4yrs, 5-6yrs, 7-8yrs, 9-10yrs, 11-13yrsPlacement Type at Age 14: foster (ref), kin, group, guardianship, otherPlacement Count at Age 14: one (ref), two, three+Most Recent Removal Reason: neglect (ref), physical, sexual, otherFirst Episode (0/1)Sibling(s) in Same Placement (0/1)Mental Retardation (0/1)Physical Disability (0/1)Visual Hearing Disability (0/1)DSM-III Diagnosis (0/1)

Race by Placement InteractionsRace by Age InteractionsPlacement by Age Interactions


Models

• Three models shown: – basic demographic variables– basic demographic +placement variables– basic demographic + placement + health variables

• Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals reported (w/robust standard error adjustments)

• Interaction effects examined (but not shown in handout)…no evidence of improved fit


Findings (see handout of models)• Suggestion that some types of disabilities are protective

(i.e., mental retardation), while others increase risk of late placement instability (i.e., mental illness, visual/hearing disabilities) – Low correlation between disabilities – the highest was

0.22 between physical disability and mental retardation

• Placement with Kin or a Guardian is associated with greater placement certainty/stability during adolescent years vs. foster homes (but we cannot rule out selection factors)

• Placement with a sibling (at age 14) significantly reduced the odds of a later move, even after controlling for placement type and other covariates


Findings (see handout of models)• In the first and simpler models (not shown) we found that

Black children in this sample were significantly less likely than White children to have experienced a placement move after the age of 14, but this effect disappeared once we controlled for placement type and other variables

• Increasing age at entry heightened the risk of experiencing a placement move in adolescence versus those who had first entered care as infants

• Entry for “other” reasons (which included truancy, running away, etc.) was associated with late adolescent placement instability, as was having had 2 or more placements or more than one removal episode prior to age 14


Part II Conclusions

• Placement stability for adolescents is associated with age at first entry into foster care, placement situation, and health.

• Future research on foster youth placement stability may continue to show protective effects for youth placed with– kin and guardians– their siblings

• Other factors that may be examined in future research include changes in schools due to placement and same-neighborhood placement.


Conclusions?

• Many older adolescent youth in care (or recently exiting care) have spent significant periods of time in out-of-home care (despite common perceptions that emancipating youth are recent entries into foster care)

– Trend data would suggest that, moving forward, we should see that this is true for fewer older adolescents

– We should also expect to see the number/count of older youth dropping despite a constant entry rate (prior cohorts getting smaller due to shorter stays in care)

– Of course, only time will tell!


[email protected]@berkeley.edu

[email protected]

CSSR.BERKELEY.EDU/UCB_CHILDWELFARE

Thank you to our colleagues at the Center for Social Services Research, the California

Department of Social Services, and the Stuart Foundation

mailto:[email protected]



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