Post on 10-Sep-2014
description
Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture
Andy Jarvis, CCAFS
2013
Why is CSA important? - Adaptation
Global wheat and maize
yields: response to warming
2013
Why is CSA important? – Food SecurityMaíz
T-Max
T-MaxYield Yield
Arroz
Climate drives yield variation: our systems are sensitive to climate, not resilient to it
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
13
Agriculture-related activities are 19-29% of global
greenhouse gas emissions (2010)
Agriculture production (e.g., fertilizers, rice, livestock,
energy)
Land-use change and forestry including drained peatlands
Industrial processes Waste
Percent, 100% = 50 gigatonnes CO2e per year
Non-Ag Energy
70
11
4 2
2013
Why is CSA important? - Mitigation
“Business as usual” (BAU) agriculture emissions would comprise >70% of allowable emissions to achieve a 2°C world
Gt CO2e per year
2010 2050 (Business as usual)
2050 (2°C target)
12 15
36
70
Non-agricultural emissions
Agricultural and land-use change emissions
>70%
48
85
21
CSA options involve farms, landscapes, food systems and services
landscape
crops
livestock
fish
food system
services
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
CSA options for landscapes
landscape
Ensure close links between practice and policy (e.g. land use zoning)
Manage livestock & wildlife over
wide areas
Increase cover of trees and perennials
Restore degraded wetlands, peatlands,
grasslands and watersheds
Create diversity of land uses
Harvest floods & manage
groundwater
Address coastal
salinity & sea surges
Protect against large-scale erosion
Example: Sustainable land management in Ethiopia
Photos: W. Bewket, AAU
190,000 ha rehabilitated 98,000 households benefit
Cut-and-carry feed for livestock
380,000 m3 waterways 900,000 m3 compost
CHINA Paying for ecosystem services
2.5 million farmers paid to set aside land and plant trees
Sequestered over 700,000 tonnes of carbon
2 million ha rehabilitated – reducing erosion
Increased yields
CSA options for crops & fields
crops
Crop diversification and “climate-ready” species
and cultivars
Altering cropping patterns & planting
dates
Better soil and nutrient management e.g. erosion control and micro-dosing
Improved water use efficiency (irrigation
systems, water micro-harvesting)
Monitoring & managing new trends in pests and diseases
Agroforestry, intercropping &
on-farm biodiversity
AFRICADrought-tolerant maize boosts food security
DTMA has developed 100 new varieties released across 13 countries; 2 million smallholders
Reduces need to use more land
Resilience to drought
Yields up to 35% more grain
Sequestration of carbon in soil and trees
NIGERBringing back the Sahel’s ‘underground forest’
5 million ha of land restored, over 200 million trees re-established
Reduces drought impacts
Additional half a million tonnes of grain per year
CSA options for livestock
livestock
High-quality diets that increase conversion
efficiency and reduce emissions
Herd management e.g. sale or slaughter at
different ages
Changing patterns of pastoralism and use of
water points
Livestock diversification and “climate-ready” species and breeds
Improved pasture
management
Use of human food waste for pigs & chickens
Example: Forest land use and cattle management in Brazil
Photo: N. Palmer, CIAT
45% higher stocking densityno increase in pasture areabetter pasture quality40% reduction in emissionsagriculture decoupled from
deforestation
CSA options for fisheries & aquaculture
fish
Better physical defences against
sea surges
Quota schemes matched to
monitoring of fish stocks
Greater energy efficiency in harvesting
Rehabilitation of mangroves &
breeding grounds
Less dependence of aquaculture on
marine fish feed
Reducing losses and wastage
CSA options for food systems
food system
More creative and efficient use of by-products
Less energy-intensity in
fertilizer production
Improving resilience of infrastructure for storage & transport
(e.g. roads, ports)
Changing diets
Greater attention to food safety
Reducing post-harvest losses & consumer
wastage
Example: “Love Food Hate Waste”in United Kingdom
13 % less household food waste consumers saving $4 billion
national water footprint down 4% 3.6 million tonnes CO2eq less per year
CSA options for services
services
Monitoring & data for food security,
climate & ecosystems
Early warning systems & weather forecasts
Mobile phone, radio & other extension or
information for farmers
Research that links farmers &
science
Weather insurance &
micro-finance
Financial transfers & other “safety nets” for
climate shocks
12 million farmers & 40 different crops insured
INDIA Weather-based insurance
Reduces pressure to bring more land under cultivation
Reduces risks
Allows farmers to access fertilizer and better seed
Example: Seasonal weather forecasts in Senegal
3 million farmers get forecasts70 community radio stations better food security outcomes
2. But major scaling up
is needed
1.5 billion
people depend on Degraded
Land
USD 7.5 billion lost to extreme Weather (2010)
1 billion more People by 2030
1.4 billion living in Poverty
14% more Food needed per
decade
Nearly 1 billion going Hungry
Target: Half a billion farmers practicing CSA
Mitigation targets?
Scholes et al., 2013. Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation in the Developing World
DC Targets (2035)• 22% reduction in agricultural
emissions relative to the ‘business as usual’ baseline
• 46% reduction in forestry and land use change, relative to a projection of current trends
Target: Half a billion with enhanced adaptive capacity
So what are the targets?
Are these targets insurmountable?“63 million customers per day, so 500 million smallholders in
the next decade is easy!”
19951999
20032007
20112015
20192023
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Food demandGrain yield per haGDP Cell phone penetration
Rel
ative
201
2 =
100%
Global Harvest Initiative 2013FAOSTATWorld Bank/Standard CharteredGSMA/Deloitte
Sub-Saharan Africa
27
Requires a comprehensive approach• Partnerships: research and development, science
and policy, public and private• Knowledge generation: practices/technologies,
programmatic elements (insurance, climate information services)
• Work on CSA enablers: (sub-)National policies, UNFCCC global process, donor agendas
• Incentive mechanisms: innovative finance, private sector
28
Capacity
Building
Gender
Open Dat
a
& Action
Learning
Research
Engagement
Inve
stm
ent
Evidence of
what works in
CSA
Research Evidence
Climate smart
villages &
broadscale
adoption
CSA Roll Out
1. CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Climate Finance Orgs, Ministries
2. World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies
3. IIASA, FAO, Global Research Alliance for Agricultural GHGs
4. Food security and climate adaptation agencies, GFAR, CFS
• Multiple local partners (e.g. CARE, Vi Mediae, PROLINNOVA, National Insurance Company of India, NARES)
Key
Regional
Strategies
Working with partners to collect the evidence and to change opinions and
worldviews
Working with partners to understand what works
1&3: CSA Alliance, World Bank, IFAD, Green Climate Fund, PROLINNOVA, climate finance orgs, ministries2: World Vision, National Meteorological Agencies, Disaster Risk Agencies, Insurance Agencies
Working with partners to make it happen
Enhanced local adaptation
planning processes
Policy & Institutional Change
Flagship 1: Climate –smart agricultural
practices
Alternate-Wetting-and-Drying (AWD)
30% water
20-50% GHG
Without compromising yield
• Keep flooded for 1st 15 days and at flowering
• Irrigate when water drops to 15 cm below the surface
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16 15.0
8.7
-42%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
t CO
2-eq
/ ha
*sea
son
4.93.9
-20%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
-22%-28%
6.04.7
6.44.6
Hilly mid-slopes Delta low-lying
Summer-Autumn
Winter-Spring
Sander et al. in press IRRI
AWD Conventional
Addressing constraintsFrom national level…
to implementation at provincial level….
Slide by Bjoern Ole Sander, IRRI
Coffee-banana intercropping
Monocrops Intercrops0
0.51
1.52
2.5
Arabica systems
Arabica Banana
Arabica(t/ha)
Banana(tenth t/ha)
Monocrops Intercrops0
0.20.40.60.8
11.21.4
Robusta systems
Robusta Banana
Robusta(t/ha)
Banana(tenth t/ha)
2268 4307$ ha yr 1286 1770$ ha yr
More carbon in the system
DiversificationDecreases drought impacts
Increased incomeEnhanced food security
Fuente: Rincón, 2013
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
27110
450600
1000
Sabana nativaPasturas degradadasGramíneas/leguminosas Pastura con fertilizantePastura mejorada con maizPastura despues de 3 años de rotación de maiz y soya
Animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year)
Crop-livestock integration to increase animal live weight gain (kg/ha/year) in the acid soil savannas of Colombia
Native savanna
Grass/legume pasture with fertilizer
Improved pasture planted with maize
Pasture after 3 years of maize-soybean rotation
Degraded pasture
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?
Analysis based on WRI 2013
Approximate area suitable for Agroforestry in Africa:
~ 300 Million Ha140+ Million People below
$1.25 per day
What if… - we spread agroforestry across Africa?
Carbon sequestration potential (2t C/ha/yr.) above and below ground with low growth habit, low tree density and poor site quality, Nair et al. 2009Underlying area 300 million ha, 285 million people, assumed increase in yields +50% (conservative), Analysis based on WRI 2013
PRO
DU
CTIV
ITY Multiple benefits include:
Reduced soil erosion Additional diversified
income from wood products
Strengthened draught resistance from increased water storage
RESI
LIEN
CE
FOO
TPRI
NT
+615 Calories per person/day for 140+ Million poor people
Average yield increase 50%
Savings of over6 Million tons of synthetic fertilizerAdoption on
150 Million HaAdoption on
300 Million Ha
+44 Million Tons
+88 Million Tons
Food Production
Carbon Sequestration
- 1 Gt of CO2eper year
- 2 Gt of CO2eper year
Adoption on150 Million Ha
Adoption on300 Million Ha
2 Gt Co2e storage per year corresponds to ~1/3 of Global Direct Ag Emissions
Significantly higher mitigation potential by further increasing tree density and in humid systems
Agroforestry can be combined with other practices such as water harvesting for additional impact.
Cereal production
Per ha Per yield0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
ChinaUS
Kahrl et al. 2010 World Agroforestry CentreBack of envelope calculations
Nitrogen use
kg N / ha
g N / t
> US$ 1.5 billion saved Emissions ↓ by 32-67 Mt CO2e yr-1
(20-41% of economic potential for N management)
If nitrogen use efficiency could be improved by 5 % points
Partnerships for Scaling Climate-smart Agriculture (P4S)
CSA Alliance• Finance working group• Policy working group• Knowledge working group (FAO & CCAFS)
• UN SG Climate Summit in Sept One element: CSA
• Separate, but related: CSA Science Conference March 2015 France
Rese
arch
in D
evel
opm
ent
CSA Country Profiles• Baseline assessment of current status of CSA• WB priorities:
– engage donors and governments on CSA concept– identify entry points for research and investment
Scalable climate smart technologies….
43
Some “simple” indicators to start with..
Social Environmental Economic
Food security
Productivity Employment Eco-efficiency
Benefit-generation Potential
Product Historical Variability
Adaptation Institutional
Enhancement
Erosion Land Use Changes Benefits Generation
Potential Mitigation Mitigation
44
Quantitative assessment of Farm-level CSA evidence (Meta-analysis)
PracticePotential articles
located (#)Articles matching
selection criteria (#)Obs. in current
database (#)
Integrated nutrient management
162 57 1332
Agroforestry 129 44 414
Manure management
159 18 408
Pasture management
166 25 667
Total1 >3000 1276 -
ICRAF, CIAT
1Includes a range of practices
45
Crowdsourcing evidence for CSA and climate resilient practice
Extendable
Searchable relational database of evidence supplied by users
Bioversity, CCAFS, & ICRAF
www.agrobiodiversity.org/refarm/
CSA Compendium
Informs CSA prioritization tool• Overcome barrier of lack of information about
possible CSA options in a given context
Informs future research agendas• Identify gaps in the literature based on CSA pillar,
CSA practice, geographic region, etc.
Knowledge Hub for CSA researchers and practitioners• Crowdsourcing to develop database, with
reliability of data marked
CSA Prioritization Tool - ProcessAssess tradeoffs
• for each practice between indicators of CSA pillars and social, economic, and environmental domains
• between practices within a portfolio
Pilots will be conducted starting mid-2014 in Mali, Viet Nam, and Colombia
PracticeCBA
Quality
1 Silvopastoral Systems 1.5 2.11
2Efficient Use of Fertilizer 1.4 2.87
3 Improved Forages 1.3 2.854 Biogas 1.2 2.36
5Grass-Legume Association 1.2 2.11
6Water harvest structure 1.2 2.08
7Silage, haylage and nutritional blocks 1 2.01
9 Early warning systems 1 1.89
Ranked List of Practices
Leb by
Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks
What defines yield?
51% of yield variation is caused by climate for rice
PROBABILISTIC PRECIPITATION FORECAST
33
33
33
Above
Normal
Below
38
31
31
2227
51
37
33
31
39
33
28
Agroclimatic Seasonal
forecasting
Matching technologies with climate in space
and time
Big opportunities for reducing water
dependency
Pulling the pieces togetherCl
imat
e re
silie
nce
Baseline
Adapted technologies
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts+
Efficient resource use
+Enabling
environment NAPs and NAMAs
Climate smartness
Adapted technologies
+Climate-specific
management+
Seasonal agroclimatic
forecasts+
Efficient resource use
Global learning
• Challenge immense, but not insurmountable
• CSA requires a comprehensive approach. Line up:– Technical– Financial– Policy
• Two key factors for success:– Successfully building a business case for
CSA– Addressing the constraints head on
In summary….
63
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