Post on 12-Jan-2022
Martin Junginger, Utrecht University
International workshop:
Towards sustainable international biomass
trade strategies
24.10.2014, Brussels, Belgium
Biomass trade for energy:
history & future expectations
History of bioenergy trade
• In the last century, the vast majority of bioenergy use was a local or regional form of energy
• Main reasons were (sufficient) local demand, but most importantly difficulties of transporting raw biomass over longer distances (due to high moisture content, difficulties with storage, no existing supply chains, etc. etc.)
• But…
(Source: J. Swaan, WPAC)
Global wood pellet trade 2010-2013
(Source: Lamers et al., Chapter 3 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013;
John Bingham, Hawkins Wright, October 2014, USIPA conference)
Total traded volume over long-distance:
>6 million tonnes
Global bioethanol trade 2008-2011
(Source: Lamers et al., Chapter 2 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)
(Source: Lamers et al., Chapter 2 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)
Global biodiesel trade 2008-2011
Trends and drivers
• International bioenergy trade of biodiesel, bioethanol and wood pellets have all increased by a factor of 10 between 2000-2010
• Volumes around several million tonnes
• Main drivers are: availability of abundant, cheap biomass, pretreatmenttechnologies, RE / climate targets of industrialized countries (Europe, US, Korea), security of supply and others
• But: is this enough?
Current bioenergy feedstock use+ other refs (2008)
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
2050 Bioenergy Potentials &
Deployment Levels
2008 Global Energy Total
Chapter 2 Possible
DeploymentLevels
2011 IPCC
Review*
Land
Use
3
and 5
million
km2
Chapter 10
Modelled
Deployment
Levels for CO2
Concentration
Targets
Past Literature
Range of
Technical
Potentials
0-1500 EJ
Glo
ba
l P
rim
ary
En
erg
y S
up
ply
, E
J/y
2008 Global Biomass Energy
2050 GlobalEnergyAR4, 2007
2050 Global
Biomass AR4,2007
<440
ppm
440-
600
ppmTechnical
Potential
2050 Projections
Minimum
median75th
Maximum
100
300
150
190
80
265
300
Technical Potential
Based on 2008
Model and Literature
Assessment
118
20 25
25th
Percentile
2000 Total Biomass
Harvest for
Food/Fodder/Fiber
as Energy Content
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
World
North America
75
168
204
39
Oceania
55
93114
40
Japan
2 2 2 2
19 25 30
W.Europe
13 E.Europe
13 2429
5
CIS &
Baltic States
111
223
269
83
Caribean &
Latin America
160
232
279
87
sub-Saharan
Africa
117
282
347
49
Middle East &
North Africa
23139
2
South Asia
26 31 3723
East Asia
28
158
194
22
1270
1545
607
364
agricultural and forestry
wastes and residues
dedicated woody
bioenergy crops
surplus forest growth
agricultural and forestrywastes and residues
dedicated woody bioenergy cropson surplus agricultural land
Total bioenergy production potential in 2050 based on different agricultural
production systems (efficiency increasing form left to right)
Bioenergy production potential
In 2050 for different levels of
change in agricultural managementS
ourc
e:
Sm
eets
, F
aaij
2006
(Source: Kranzl et al., Chapter 8 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)
Global solid trade by 2030/2050?
(Source: Kranzl et al., Chapter 8 In Junginger et al. International Bioenergy Trade, Springer 2013)
Global liquid biofuels trade by 2030/2050?
Future of bioenergy trade…
• Main demand expected in OECD, China, India; main supply potential in Russia, Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa
• To make future supply and demand meet, significant further growth in biomass trade is needed.
• But: how to govern sustainable production and sourcing of biomass? How to deal with current and future demand for food, fuels and materials in the exporting regions…
To be discussed today…
Core objective:
‘to support the development of
sustainable, international bioenergy
markets and international trade,
recognising the diversity in resources and
biomass applications’
IEA Bioenergy Task 40
Martin Junginger
(Academic)
Peter-Paul
Schouwenberg
(Industry)
Task Leaders
Triennium 2013 – 2015
Task members:
• 10 chapters
• Summarizing the lessons of three triennia
• Solid & liquid biomass trade, logistics, sustainability,
country case studies, barriers & opportunities for
trade, outlook on future trade flows & required
investments, and more…
• With contributions from all Task 40 member
countries
• Available both as hardcopy and as e-book
• www.bioenergytrade.org