Post on 27-Mar-2015
Bar-EcoReWP3: Population distributions
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution
Objective of WP3:
investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations.
2 components:
1. historical reconstructions and projections of climate scenarios
2. statistical spatial distribution models for plankton, benthos and fish populations
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
projecting spatial distributions
niche-based models
+
predicted spatial
distribution
environment
biol
ogic
al re
spon
se
climate forecast/scenario
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
A general view of the modelling method
adapted from Anderson, 2010
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Evaluating uncertainties
Scale(s)
adaptation
futureworld
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
uncertainties in conceptual models
spatial distribution
geographical attachment
environmental conditions
density dependent
habitat selection
spatial dependency
demographic structure
Persistence
species interactions
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution
Pops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distribution
Pops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distribution
Environmental conditions (climate,
habitat, pollution, etc.)
Environmental conditions (climate,
habitat, pollution, etc.)
Pops. History (demography, size, etc.)
Pops. History (demography, size, etc.)
Population distribution
models (PDMs)
Population distribution
models (PDMs)
Model evaluation & selection
Model evaluation & selection
PDMsPDMs
PAST POSSIBLE FUTURES
EnvironmentPop stateEnvironmentPop state
Pops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distribution
ClimateFishingClimateFishing
PDMsPDMs
ensemble modelling
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Past and Future climate & other stressors
Past ocean climate will come from historical Atlas of hydrographic conditions (FishExchange) for the period 1985+
Future climate will be derived from downscaled ocean climate simulations for the period 2051-2065
Other stressors will not be considered explicitely, but through their expected effects on populations (abundance, demographic structure,...)
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Activities
Year 1: Data & information assembly (past situations). Development of conceptual models. Experiment with existing tool-kits.
Year 2: Numerical formulation and coding for few species. Model evaluations and development of ensemble models. Climate model runs for 2051-2065.
Year 3: Extension of model development to ‘all’ species. Input of future climate and biological scenarios. Ensemble forecasts.
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Feasibility and limitations
Feasibility:
Statistical models for spatial distribution do exists (mostly terrestrial) and ready-made tools are currently available (ex: BIOMOD)
The statistical modelling activity will be carried out by a dedicated post-doc
Limitations:
Availability of adequate data (climate & biological)
Availability of adequate information (e.g. species interactions) to construct the models
Time needed for developing and coding models outside existing tools
Computing time for complex ensemble modelling
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Connections to other WPs
WP1: Community
structure
WP2: Trophic
interaction
WP4: Resilience
& Early warning
Past climate & climate models
data an
d conce
ptsmodelled distributions
WP3: Population distribution
Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions
Thank you