Post on 22-Feb-2016
description
Baby Boomers: The Next 20 Years
Richard AdlerInstitute for Senior Living
April 12, 2012
Two visions of the future of aging
Thinking about the future
Foresight
Insight
Action
Methodologies:
• Expert workshops
• Ethnographic research
• Scenarios
• Artifacts from the future
• Collaborative forecasting
• Games
• Signal tracking
• Mapping
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Premise:The systems, structures and institutions created over the past half century to support older Americans will not scale up to accommodate the needs of the next generation of seniors.
Projected growth in health care spending, 2007-2082
Source: Long-Term Outlook for Health Care Spending, CBO, 2007
% of GDP
Model of change
• Cohort
• Age • Period
Cohort Effect: Life Expectancy, 1840-2000
Women
Men
Source: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, Oeppen and Vaupell Science, May 10., 2002
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Cohort Effect: Prevalence of Disability in
the 65+ population, 1982-2005
Source: NIA, 2006
1985 1995 20050%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Age Effect: Prevalence of Disability by Age, 2009
Source: Administration on Aging,. A Profile of Older Americans: 2009.
Period Effect: Household Net Worth
Boomers: The Next 20 Years
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People in Daily Life:Extended Capacity
Signal: Older Athletes
Signal: Older Workers
Signal: Biomechatronics
People in Daily Life:Re-Sequencing of Life Stages
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Signal: Emergence of a New Lifestage
Signal: Emergence of a New Lifestage
Networks in Action: Self-Help 2.0
Signal: PatientsLikeMe
Signal: ITN America
Signal: Virtual Villages
Successful Aging: Avenidas Village-PAMF Partnership
Economies in Flux: Wealth Generation
Signal: Your Encore
Signal: Time Banks
Economies in Flux:Re-Institutioning
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Signal: Reinventing the Senior Center
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Signal: Reinventing Lifelong Learning
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Signal: Reinventing Retirement
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Signal: Reinventing Senior Housing
Signal: Old’Up
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Signal: Institute for the Ages
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Foresight
Insight
Action