Post on 08-Oct-2020
Sainarayan A Chief Aviation Data and Analysis ICAO
AVIATION PERSONNEL FORECASTS
Shenzhen / 13th December 2018
2
60%
of total traffic
39th Assembly Outcome regarding Personnel Forecasts
Report on the Development of a single set of harmonized long-term forecasts (A39-WP/64) Update global and regional 20-year forecasts for pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers (DOC 9956) in April 2018 to meet the needs of the ICAO Next Generation Aviation Professional (NGAP) programme.
3
60%
of total traffic
Aviation Data and Analysis Panel met in March 2017 The Panel recommended that: a) the Secretariat should continue its work in the development of the forecast of licensed aviation professionals within the timeline proposed and with the help of the MDWG-LTF and the TFGs; and b) the Secretariat should consider other sources of information available, which can supplement existing ICAO data and results of the survey.
Traffic forecasts Endorsed by A39
Fleet forecasts Developed using Traffic
Forecasts ICAO Survey
New Personnel Forecasts
Pilots
359,337
165,852
554,304
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
2017 2037
Pilo
ts
Current Pilots New Pilots
Commercial Pilot Demand Forecasts
3%
4%
31%
41%
25%
21%
7%
7%
7%
8%
27%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2017
2037
Pe
rcen
tage
of
Tota
l Pilo
ts
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Europe
Latin America
Middle East
North America
New pilots are estimated assuming a 3% attrition rate All personnel data and forecasts in this presentation are presented on the basis of region and country of departure
6
60%
of total traffic
Commercial Pilot Demand Forecasts Top 10 Countries Driving the Growth in Demand for new Pilots
For this slide and rest of the presentation country level Data excludes dedicated cargo personnel
Air Traffic Controllers
Air Traffic Controller Demand Forecasts
New Air Traffic Controllers are estimated assuming a 2% attrition rate
4%
4%
33%
42%
31%
25%
12%
11%
3%
4%
18%
14%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2017
2037
Africa
Asia/Pacific
Europe
Latin America/Caribbean
Middle East
North America
85,829
54,847
106,800
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
2017 2037
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rs
Current Air Traffic Controllers New Air Traffic Controllers
Air Traffic Controller Demand Forecasts Top 10 Countries Driving the Growth in Demand for new Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians and Cabin Crew
Maintenance Technicians and Cabin Crew Demand Forecasts
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
443 204
666
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2017 2037Mai
nte
nan
ce T
ech
nic
ian
s (t
ho
usa
nd
s)
Current Techinicians New Technicians
565 262
923
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2017 2037
Cab
in C
rew
(th
ou
san
ds)
Current Cabin Crew New Cabin Crew
New Personnel are estimated assuming a 3% attrition rate
Maintenance Technicians and Cabin Crew Demand Forecasts Top 10 Countries Driving the Growth in Demand for new Technicians and Cabin Crew
Regional and Global Personnel Summary
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
MoroccoKenya
EthiopiaEgypt
Sout Africa
MoroccoKenya
EthiopiaEgypt
Sout Africa
MoroccoKenya
EthiopiaEgypt
Sout Africa
MoroccoKenya
EthiopiaEgypt
Sout Africa
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
in C
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
Africa (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
Asia/Pacific (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
IndonesiaJapan
AustraliaIndia
China
IndonesiaJapan
AustraliaIndia
China
IndonesiaJapan
AustraliaIndia
China
IndonesiaJapan
AustraliaIndia
China
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
in C
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
Europe (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
SpainTurkey
GermanyFrance
Unted Kingdom
SpainTurkey
GermanyFrance
Unted Kingdom
SpainTurkey
GermanyFrance
Unted Kingdom
SpainTurkey
GermanyFrance
Unted Kingdom
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
in C
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
Latin America/Caribbean (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
0 5 10 15 20 25
ColombiaChile
ArgentinaMexico
Brazil
ColombiaChile
ArgentinaMexico
Brazil
ColombiaChile
ArgentinaMexico
Brazil
ColombiaChile
ArgentinaMexico
Brazil
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
in C
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
Middle East (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
IsraelIran
QatarSaudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
IsraelIran
QatarSaudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
IsraelIran
QatarSaudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
IsraelIran
QatarSaudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
in C
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
North America (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Canada
United States
Canada
United States
Canada
United States
Canada
United States
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
inC
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Pilots Air Traffic Controllers
Maintenance Technicians Cabin Crew
World (Top 5 Countries driving the demand for new personnel)
0 40 80 120 160
United Arab EmiratesUnited Kingdom
IndiaUnited States
China
United Arab EmiratesUnited Kingdom
IndiaUnited States
China
United Arab EmiratesUnited Kingdom
IndiaUnited States
China
United Arab EmiratesUnited Kingdom
IndiaUnited States
China
Pil
ots
Air
Tra
ffic
Co
ntr
olle
rM
ain
tnan
ceTe
chn
icia
ns
Cab
in C
rew
Personnel (thousands)
Personnel Forecast 2037
Current Personnel New Personnel
Training Capacity
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Brazil
Japan
United Kingdom
China
Pilots 20 Years Annual Capacity to Meet Demand Current Annual Capacity
Future capacity was projected assuming 75% utilization of training facilities
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
Brazil
Japan
United Kingdom
China
Air Traffic Controllers 20 Years Annual Capacity to Meet Demand Current Annual Capacity
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Brazil
Japan
United Kingdom
China
Maintenance Technicians 20 Years Annual Capacity to Meet Demand Current Annual Capacity
Technology impact on Personnel Demand
• Ride sharing companies such as Uber plan to offer multimodal air transportation between suburbs, cities, and ultimately within cities in the future
• They will likely develop fleets of small, electric VTOL (Vertical Take-off and Landing)
• These fleet will require pilots and technicians to be maintained. The impact of this futuristic air transportation mode is not reflected in ICAO personnel forecast.
Conclusion
• Asia will lead the growth for new fleet and personnel • Analysis shows that gap exists between available training capacity and demand in fast growing
markets • Need to invest in new training capacity and or utilize available surplus capacity in more mature
markets • Addressing the gap by appropriate policy interventions is therefore essential for States to secure the
sustainable growth of air transport and maximize the social and economic benefits offered by air transport.
• States are invited to use the ICAO personnel forecast application in https://data.icao.int/trafficforecast for their planning needs. Please contact Wendy Fu wfu@icao.int for further information.